July 26, 2024 | A Worried Bank of Canada is Cutting Interest Rates

Central bankers in Canada went out on a limb by cutting a key interest rate this week. The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate for the second time, by 0.25 percent to make a full ½ point reduction this year. The most powerful central bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, has yet to make its […]

July 26, 2024 | Tech Stocks Drop World Wide

The love affair with junk bonds is over

July 26, 2024 | Large Upward Revisions of “Core Services” PCE Inflation Pushed Six-Month “Core” PCE Inflation to 3.4%, Worst in a Year

The revisions, the upward revisions, oh-la-la! The Bureau of Economic Analysis released today the PCE price index for June; and as part of it, the “core” PCE price index – the Fed’s primary yardstick for inflation – was revised substantially higher for May, driven by a large upward revision of the “core services” PCE price […]

July 25, 2024 | WTI Falls >US$4/b Over The Last Week To US$77.30/b On Weakening China Demand

The ending of President Biden’s candidacy for a second four year term has emboldened the Democrats that they could win the Presidency and end the worry of a clean sweep (Presidency, House and Senate) by the Trumpers. By endorsing Kamala Harris, Biden passes the torch to his VP and ensures that the campaign funds raised […]

July 25, 2024 | Is it Time to Take Defensive Investment Positions?

Aerospace stocks are taking off. Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

July 25, 2024 | Rising Unemployment Now Bank of Canada’s Biggest Concern

Is a US Recession in motion?

July 25, 2024 | Is it Possible the Bull Rally is Over?

Crude’s expected break out peters out

July 25, 2024 | Are the BRICS Closer to a Gold Backed Currency?

Our overpaid politicians keep letting us down

July 24, 2024 | Housing Is Seriously Rolling Over

Let’s start with the fact that the average American can’t afford the average house. Not even close: Houses have been unaffordable for a while, but for a while, “investors” — i.e., private equity companies with access to cheap credit — took up the slack, sometimes buying entire neighborhoods and converting the houses to rentals. Now […]

July 23, 2024 | Early Sign of a Downturn in CA Home Prices

    Everybody knows where we’ve been.  Let’s see where we are going. History shows that extremely low housing affordability in CA tends to precede market downturns, as occurred in 1980, 1989, and as shown below, 2006.                I see no reason why this time will be any different. But Fear Not, Fellow Investors In […]

July 23, 2024 | Canada’s Economy Feels Like a Recession

Canada’s June unemployment rate of 6.4% was up 160 basis points from the cycle low of 4.8% in June 2022. Since the 1970s (as shown below courtesy of RBC), Canada has never had this trough-to-peak rise in the unemployment rate without the economy going through a recession (blue bars). The increase following the 2000-03 dotcom […]

July 22, 2024 | Zelensky Prepared for a Trump Presidency

Donald Trump has guaranteed to end the war in Ukraine if elected president, vowing to do so before his first day in office. The recent outpouring of support for Donald Trump has led world leaders to consider the possibility of a second Trump presidency. Perhaps no one would dread a second Trump term more than […]

July 21, 2024 | Tax Code Change for Emergency Retirement Withdrawals

Low-income Americans are in such dire straits due to the elevated cost of living that lawmakers are making changes to the tax code. No, naturally, the politicians are not voting to decrease taxes for those who can barely get by. Instead, they’re permitting Americans to pull a mere $1,000 out of their retirement accounts without […]

July 20, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For July 20, 2024

Risk assets had a key turn date When several markets reverse course on or around the same date, I define that as a Key Turn Date (KTD). It signals a (profound) change in market sentiment/psychology/positioning.   My favourite barometer of risk sentiment is the S&P 500 Index. S&P futures (and the cash market) closed at a record […]

July 20, 2024 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark: Stock Markets, Gold.   Special Offer! 25% Off New Annual Subscriptions.
• Eric Hadik:  (9:56) Stock Market Cycles, Gold, Silver, USD, Cryptos, Oil
• Hilliard MacBeth: (45:07) Gold, Inflation, Real Estate, EVs

July 19, 2024 | The Fed will Cut Rates Too Late in This Cycle

Anticipation ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate cut is growing. Traders are betting on a first quarter-point cut at the meeting on September 17-18 as the most likely date, with more cuts to come later this year in November and December. But traders are wrong in thinking that rate cuts are good for […]

July 19, 2024 | Why Short Term Rates Should Be Your Nightmare

A suggested safe haven to protect from market crash

July 18, 2024 | Home Buyers Still on Strike even as Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest since March. But Refis Jump to Highest since Aug 2022

The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate during the latest reporting week dropped to 6.87%, the lowest since mid-March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. Not so ironically, two things happened, as the MBA also reported today: Applications for mortgages to purchase a home fell to the lowest point since early June, as potential […]

July 18, 2024 | What Will Likely Trigger Next US Recession?

Today’s Stock Market much like 2000 dot com bust set up

July 18, 2024 | Trump Inside Job, Vaccine Problems, Poison

15 Minute Cities, Pedos, Modern Slaves

July 18, 2024 | Are Stock Markets Setting Up for a Major Crash?

Will Gold protect you if markets crumble?

July 18, 2024 | Are the Latest Stock Market Bumps Manipulation?

Bitcoin becoming a new market indicator?  Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

July 17, 2024 | US Total Stocks Rose 11.1 MB Last Week -This Should Put Pressure on Crude Prices

The Republican National Convention is on this week and all of Trump’s former Presidential opponents are singing kumbaya and circling the wagons to get a fully united party to win the Presidency, the Senate and a large majority in the House. His surviving an assassination attempt last week has added to his messianic support. A […]

July 16, 2024 | “They” Will Do Anything To Win

“We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.”  – William J. Casey, CIA Director (1981) The always mysterious question when trying to figure out what is happening in this insane world and why it is happening is who are “they”? In the current chaotic atmosphere, “they” are in […]