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July 4, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for July 4, 2026

Too much leverage? You can’t have a bubble without leverage, and making the bubble bigger requires even more leverage. At some point, too much leverage sets the stage for a meaningful correction. If we’re not there already, we’re close.   In last week’s TD Notes, I wrote, “the biggest knowable (non-black-swan) risk may be overleveraged positioning. This […]

July 4, 2026 | This Week in Money

  • Ross Clark: Stock Markets, Gold, Silver, Oil, Bitcoin, USD, Canadian Dollar. Special Offer!
  • Eric Hadik: (10:25)  Market Cycles, Transports, Oil, USD, Canadian Dollar, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Bonds.
  • Rick Ackerman: (40:00) Dow, Drones, Trump, Bitcoin.

July 3, 2026 | Volkswagen is Fighting a Losing Battle Against EV Transition

One of Europe’s largest employers is fighting for its survival — and losing. Volkswagen’s announcement of 100,000 layoffs, 16 percent of its workforce, and the closure of four German plants has triggered alarm bells across Europe. The scale is staggering. The timing may be too late. The instinct is to blame China. That’s the wrong […]

July 2, 2026 | Harari: AI has Hacked The Code of Human Civilization

Thought-provoking presentation… Human domination relies on large-scale cooperation among strangers, which is sustained by bureaucratic systems – such as laws, finance, religion – designed to build trust. Since AIs are ‘native bureaucrats’, they can effortlessly remember all laws, transactions, and scriptures far better than any human. This leaves AI uniquely placed to take over critical […]

July 1, 2026 | Europe Is Already Preparing for War

People keep asking when World War III will begin. They are asking the wrong question. Europe is already behaving as though it is at war. I have warned for years that the politicians in Brussels would never allow peace because the sovereign debt crisis requires an external enemy. Every week, another European government announces more […]

June 30, 2026 | The Drone Has Replaced the Tank

  Military strategists are still fighting the last war while the battlefield has already changed. Every major conflict throughout history has been defined by a technological revolution. Gunpowder ended the age of castles. Tanks transformed World War II. Precision missiles reshaped modern warfare. Now we have entered the age of the drone. The military that […]

June 29, 2026 | The AI Arms Race Is Replacing Globalization

  Everyone is talking about artificial intelligence as though it is simply the next technology boom. They are missing the bigger picture. The country that controls the chips, the data centers, the electricity, and the manufacturing capacity will hold the strategic advantage for decades. This is no different than steel before World War I or […]

June 28, 2026 | Inflation Sinks Deeper

When we talk about inflation, the conversation usually centers on periods (like now) when inflation is especially high. Those are certainly problematic. But we can overlook a possibly bigger problem: other than a few short breaks, you and I have never seen a time when inflation wasn’t rising. Inflation isn’t some problem that pops up […]

June 27, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for June 27, 2026

Brent crude oil futures return to pre-war levels Front-month Brent futures traded between ~$71-~$73 on February 27 and closed this week at ~$73. Front-month WTI futures closed this week at ~$70, slightly above their February 27 range of ~$65 to ~$68. A “tit-for-tat” military exchange between the US and Iran on Friday/Saturday may impact oil prices this coming […]

June 27, 2026 | AI Abundance Part 4: The Clarity Act and The Stablecoin Wars

from Scheerpost As Americans prepare to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, few are paying attention to a bill moving through Congress that could seriously impinge on our financial independence. The Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act, H.R. 4766, is slated to make privately issued stablecoins a major component of the U.S. monetary […]

June 27, 2026 | This Week in Money

June 26, 2026 | Leave the Vancouver Condo Glut Alone

The Canadian government is spending $3.2 billion in taxpayer money to buy 2,200 vacant condos in Greater Vancouver and convert them to rental units. That sounds like a housing policy. It isn’t. It’s a developer bailout. Those 2,200 units represent roughly a third of the unsold condo glut in the Vancouver area — a glut […]

June 26, 2026 | Gold Falling Over Interest Hike Fears

Can you tie El Nino to stock market cycles?

June 25, 2026 | India’s Russian Oil Imports Expose the Failure of Western Sanctions

  India’s imports of Russian crude oil have surged to a record high, with Moscow now supplying more than half of the country’s crude oil requirements. According to recent reports, Russian oil accounted for over 50% of India’s imports in June after a temporary US sanctions waiver expired. This development is far more significant than […]

June 25, 2026 | Market Volatility Not Unusual This Time of Year

After big losses, Bitcoin should be near the bottom of its cycle

June 25, 2026 | Rampant Inflation was No Accident

Cracks are starting to form in stock market

June 24, 2026 | Recession Watch: Three Big Things

The markets are, ahem, unsettled these days. But the Iran war isn’t the main culprit. Three other events are potentially both scarier and longer-lasting: The Fed Flirts With Tighter Money   New Fed chair Kevin Warsh presumably went through an interview process in which President Trump or his surrogates demanded lower interest rates and Warsh […]

June 23, 2026 | Starmer’s Fall & The Rise of Farage

  Keir Starmer’s resignation comes as absolutely no surprise. The shocking part is not that he quit, but that it took this long. The British people delivered one of the largest electoral victories in modern history to Labour in 2024, only to discover that changing the party did nothing to change the direction of government. […]

June 22, 2026 | Your Car Was Never the Target

For years, governments assured the public that license plate readers were simply tools to catch stolen vehicles, fugitives, and dangerous criminals. That was always the sales pitch. Now the mask is coming off. According to reports, a new surveillance platform called SignalTrace is being marketed to law enforcement and government agencies that goes far beyond […]

June 21, 2026 | Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition

The Social Security Administration recently gave us their annual report with a few blockbuster footnotes. We all know that Social Security as it is currently constructed will run out of money in the early 2030s. Social Security’s cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010. Since then, payments have been made out of the so-called […]

June 20, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for June 20, 2026

Crude oil prices spiked in March Brent crude oil futures spiked in March as the US and Israel attacked Iran and as Iran retaliated. Prices rose in April as markets assessed that the war would last longer than initially thought, and amid concerns that the effective closure of Hormuz would cause physical shortages. In May, prices […]

June 20, 2026 | This Week in Money

  • Ross Clark:  Stock Markets, Oil, Copper, Gold, Silver, USD and Canadian Dollar.
  • Victor Adair: (9:14) New Fed Chair, US Iran War.
  • Jim Willie: (33:46) Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Inflation, Canada Joining USA.
  • Frank Stronach:  (1:29:14) Economic Charter.

June 19, 2026 | The Federal Reserve has a New Leader Who Talks Tough

The Federal Reserve has a new chair, and he’s already on a collision course with the White House. Kevin Warsh presided over his first meeting this week, holding rates steady but sending an unmistakable signal — inserting into the statement that “the committee will deliver price stability.” The phrasing draws a sharp line against predecessors […]

June 19, 2026 | So What Happens With Oil Now?

If the Iran war is really over — still a very big “if” — the global oil markets will start trending back to normal. This will take a while, and some of the supply chain kinks will continue to cause problems. But it’s interesting that oil’s price is around $78/bbl this morning. Why is that interesting? Because Tommy Norris, […]

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