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December 7, 2024 | The Tyranny in Canada Accelerates
The Third Wave of Canada ended in 2022, and we have begun the Fourth Wave, leading to more authoritarianism, and the Trudeau government seeks to retain power. But this immediate 8.6-year wave reaches its peak in 2026.59. There is no question that the centralized government of Trudeau recognizes that the end is near. They are […]
December 7, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 7, 2024
Tech stocks led the indices higher this week. AAPL hit new record highs, up ~11% in a month and ~50% in eight months. TSLA had another good week, up ~56% since the election and 2.8X in the last eight months. AMZN is at record highs, up ~15% since the election and ~50% in the last four […]
December 7, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 7th 2024
The Bottom Line U.S. economic focuses this week are on November CPI released on Wednesday and November PPI released on Thursday. Canadian focus is on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Consensus calls for at least a 0.25 basis point reduction. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com Earnings […]
December 6, 2024 | Volkswagen Protests – The Contagion Begins
Tens of thousands of Volkswagen employees have halted production to protest proposed pay cuts. The German automaker has stated it will need to close three manufacturing plants due to rising labor expenses, material shortages, and, most importantly – the climate change agenda that has demonized fossil fuels. Over 120,000 workers now face a 10% pay […]
December 6, 2024 | Stock Prices Reach Bubble Levels in US
The U.S. stock market is extremely expensive, by all measures. Technology companies like Nvidia lead the way, but even the average stock is overvalued in relation to past cycles. When will there be a correction in the U.S. stock market? As we approach 2025 the markets continue to surge higher, perhaps not surprising as Wall […]
December 6, 2024 | Caught Between Rising Unemployment and a High Cost of Living
This morning, we learned that Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November, the highest since September 2021 and January 2017. It is now up 200 basis points (bps) from the cycle low of 4.8% in June 2022 and has never increased this much outside of a recession. Of the 50,000 new jobs created, 45,000 […]
December 5, 2024 | Bitcoin & the End of Money
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I just had to write in to say thank you for explaining that Bitcoin was just a trading asset, not some new currency that would replace the dollar. I understand that money must be elastic to grow with society in economic booms and population. I just read a quote reported by […]
December 5, 2024 | The Psychology of Money and Happiness
There are many wise, helpful insights in this discussion. In this episode, my guest is Morgan Housel, an expert in private wealth generation and management and author of the bestselling book The Psychology of Money. We discuss how desiring, pursuing, saving, and spending money impact our psychology and perception of wealth. We explore why people […]
December 5, 2024 | Creeping Fascism: Mike Benz On the Censorship-Industrial Complex
Back in February, I made the ambitious claim that former State Department analyst Mike Benz had released “the single most important thing currently available online.” Here it is: Now Benz is back with a nearly three-hour Joe Rogan episode in which he explains how the US has replaced the most evil bits of the CIA and State […]
December 4, 2024 | Trump to Block Japanese Steel Deal and Place Tariffs on Chinese Steel
Nippon Steel, a Japanese company, has offered to buy US Steel for $14.9 billion, yet both President Joe Biden and president-elect Donald Trump strongly oppose the deal. Both men believe it is vital to keep the historic company domestic. But why has America’s steel industry become less competitive? Demand for steel fell 0.4% YoY […]
December 4, 2024 | Thoughtful Investments Are The Only Ones Worth Making
The Canadian government’s plan to constrain population growth by reducing immigration over the next few years is designed to relieve demand pressure on key services like housing, education and health care. That’s needed. The downsides are that Canada’s economic growth will weaken, and the government will collect less revenue. RBC economists estimate the impact to be about […]
December 3, 2024 | Europe is Falling, and France Is Leading the Way
Fiat currency systems usually end with debts soaring to unmanageable levels and governments powerless to stop the resulting carnage. Japan and the US will get there eventually. But Europe is tipping into the abyss in real time. Germany’s self-inflicted deindustrialization is a mess so vast (and sad) that it will get a post of its […]
December 3, 2024 | California’s Energy Surplus
Californians pay a fixed rate for their energy grid, but the state has been harvesting a surplus to the point that operators are forced to offload the energy to neighboring states that purchase it at a discount or even receive it free of cost. Governor Gavin Newsom praised California for advancing its energy storage […]
December 3, 2024 | The Unbearable Weight of Home Prices
About 15 million, or 37% of Canada’s 40 million people, live in the Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal areas, three of the top seven least affordable cities in America and Canada. Over 25% live in the two least affordable cities—Vancouver and Toronto—where the average sale price in 2024 was 12.7x and 10.7x the median household incomes […]
December 2, 2024 | Backward Looking Recession Indicators
Is the U.S. in the heat of a recession right now? A recent jump in bankruptcies resembles that of the Great Financial Crisis, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, tells Jeremy Szafron, Kitco News anchor, on the sidelines of the New Orleans Investment Conference. Booth discusses a range of topics, including […]
December 2, 2024 | The Rental Boom
Happy Monday morning! We’ve been talking a lot about the weakness in the rental market. Rents are declining in some of Canada’s largest major metros. In Toronto and Vancouver asking rents have dipped close to 10% over the past year. Part of this is from a massive boom in rental housing development. Per RBC, we […]
December 2, 2024 | Why Hunter’s Pardon Can Take Down Biden Himself
QUESTION: Biden said he would not pardon Hunter, and then he did. Was this not a slap in the face to the Democratic Party that will contribute to its breakup, as you have warned? JM ANSWER: It is worse than you think. This could backfire, for it was not a pardon for Hunter as much as it […]
December 1, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, December 2024 Peanut the Squirrel and WW III
Hypersonic missiles are flying, the people (still!) in charge are strangely okay with that…and Peanut the Squirrel dies tragically. New York Authorities Announce Peanut The Squirrel Died Of COVID (Babylon Bee) – Following the public outcry about the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation raiding a local man’s home and euthanizing his pet squirrel who had hundreds of thousands […]
December 1, 2024 | Cut $2 Trillion from the U.S. Budget…or What?
Let’s hope Musk and Ramaswamy have been paying close attention to David Stockman’s ten-part series on how to cut the U.S. budget before America spends its way into bankruptcy. Stockman was Reagan’s budget director in 1981-85 and is eminently qualified to spell out the tough reforms needed to force the U.S. to live within its means. He […]
December 1, 2024 | Canada’s Migrant Crisis Costs Rise to $16 Billion Annually
I have warned that there will be an exodus of migrants fleeing the United States for Canada in the wake of Trump’s presidency. The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada said that the sheer volume of asylum seekers has spiked to the highest on record, with the number of cases rising from 60,000 annually to […]
November 30, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for November 30, 2024
Trump shocks markets: he will hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs on ALL exports On Monday afternoon, November 25, Trump announced that on his first day as President, he would levy 25% tariffs on ALL imports from Canada and Mexico – if they did not halt the flow of illegal migrants and dangerous drugs into the […]
November 30, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday November 30th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on fiscal fourth quarter results released by Canada’s largest banks. Economic News This Week October U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% gain in September. November ISM Manufacturing PMI released t 10:00 AM EST on Monday is […]
November 29, 2024 | Trump Threats of Tariffs Worry Canadians
President-elect Trump doubled down on his threat to impose tariffs on imports to the U.S. This time he focused on two countries — Mexico and Canada — with a statement that he would put a 25 percent tariff on imports. How should Canada counter these threats? This week Trump posted: “On January 20th, as one […]
November 29, 2024 | Record Valuations and Most Bulls Since 1987
The S&P 500 (26% concentrated in the five most expensive tech companies) is trading at 38x smoothed 10-year earnings, just marginally below the all-time high of 43x briefly seen at the 2000 tech bubble top and much higher than the previous bubble top in 1929 (Shiller PE ratio below since 1870). But then, most are […]
November 28, 2024 | Wong: Economy Not Strong, Unemployment Likely to Surge
About that Trump trade… The last time today’s expert was on the program back in July, she was concerned about rising unemployment. Is she still as worried about it as we prepare to enter a new year with a new Administration taking over? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with […]