ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 28, 2024 | Heading to Zero
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, Macklem and Co slashed rates by 50bps this past week, citing slower growth and a softening labour market. Further adding, “if the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further.” Remember that line, we’ll come back to it. So the Bank […]
October 28, 2024 | Broken China
Here in the US, people are obsessed with the impending election. It is perhaps the World’s Largest Guessing Game. We can look at polls and make our best guesses, but no one really knows what will happen. We just have to wait for more data which will (hopefully) be forthcoming November 5 or soon afterward. […]
October 27, 2024 | Is NATO Prepared for a Trump Victory?
People believe that NATO will simply back down if Donald Trump is re-elected as he is strongly against the war in Ukraine. This is simply not the case as NATO began planning for a Trump victory months ago. Chief Jens Stoltenberg attempted to created a 100 billion euro fund that was intended to be “Trump-proof” […]
October 27, 2024 | An Election Week Scenario
You can always tell when portfolio managers are hard at play, immersed in an epic circle jerk that has become more tediously familiar with each passing week. And so it went on Friday, as money migrated for no discernible reason from certain, temporarily disfavored stocks to flavor-of-the-day hotties. It seemed almost as though the chimpanzees […]
October 27, 2024 | Will a “Short Squeeze” Spike Silver?
The late, great Ted Butler spent the final decades of his life railing against the way the silver market was manipulated on the Comex and other exchanges while capitive regulators looked the other way. In very simple terms, he accused big banks, hedge funds, and commercial silver buyers of using futures contracts to suppress the […]
October 26, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for October 26, 2024
US interest rates have surged higher since September 18, when the Fed cut short rates by 50 bps. US 2-year yields were near a 22-month low of ~3.63% on September 18 but closed this week at ~4.12%. In this chart of 2-year Treasury futures, the blue ellipse is September 18, and the black ellipse is October […]
October 26, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 26th 2024
The Bottom Line Key focuses this week are on third quarter results released by some of the largest U.S. companies including: Ford on Monday Alphabet, McDonalds and Pfizer on Tuesday Microsoft and Eli Lily on Wednesday Apple and Amazon on Thursday Exxon Mobil and Chevron on Friday Volatility in U.S. equity markets (measured by the […]
October 25, 2024 | A Jumbo Rate Cut and Worries About Deflation
The Bank of Canada made a jumbo rate cut, its fourth cut to the benchmark interest rate. The 50 basis points cut brought the policy rate to 3.75 percent. The justification for such a large cut is that CPI inflation has dropped below the target of 2 percent. The actual increase from a year ago […]
October 25, 2024 | Incrementum’s Latest Gold Charts
Incrementum is out with its latest In Gold We Trust chartbook, and to call it compelling for gold and silver would be to wildly understate the case. Here are a few of the highlights:
October 25, 2024 | Creating Your Best Future
Happy Friday! Keep Looking up! In this episode, my guest is Ari Wallach, most recently an adjunct associate professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and host of a new TV series titled A Brief History of the Future. We discuss the importance of learning to project our understanding of ourselves and […]
October 24, 2024 | Large US Inventory Build And Weaker Consumption Pull WTI Down Over US$1/b On The Day.
With less than two weeks left until the US elections the US stock market is gyrating and looks heavy to me. It is fighting the uncertainty of two different visions for America going forward and US interest rates have been climbing on the fears of inflation reigniting and debt crowding (too much borrowing for the […]
October 24, 2024 | Oversized Rate Cuts: Red Alert
Four easing cycles have seen the Bank of Canada deliver larger than 25 basis point rate cuts at a time: 2001, after the US dot-com bubble and Sept. 11 attacks; during the global financial crisis; in the COVID economic shock of 2020 (see chart on the left); and now, in 2024. See Bank of Canada’s Deeper Cut […]
October 24, 2024 | Do We Face a “Minsky Moment”?
Paul Tudor Jones, a well-known billionaire hedge fund manager, recently went on CNBC to warn about the impact of America’s soaring government debt. As reported by Kitco: The Tudor Investment founder and CIO expressed concerns that if the U.S. continues to spend beyond its means, a major sell-off in the bond market could ensue, leading to a […]
October 24, 2024 | Yellen Says Taxpayers Can Cover the US Deficit
I reported how the US deficit reached the third-highest on record after surpassing $1.83 trillion. Instead of questioning why the deficit rose 8% in a single year, the government believes that the taxpayers should simply pay MORE into the failing system. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared that she is not concerned about the widening […]
October 23, 2024 | Switzerland is No Longer Neutral
“Neutral like Switzerland” can no longer be a saying as the Swiss government has announced it is joining the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) to develop a shared missile defense system across Europe. Switzerland is neither an official member of the European Union nor a member of NATO. Yet, the nation forfeited its neutrality stance […]
October 23, 2024 | The Trouble with Central Bank Rate Cuts
On September 18, the US Fed cut its overnight target rate by 50 basis points (bps), and risk markets went wild. Stock and corporate debt prices have risen to more all-time highs, and real estate bulls rejoice that lower interest rates will reignite loan demand and save highly leveraged property markets. The trouble is that […]
October 23, 2024 | Recession Watch: Bonds Don’t Trust the Fed
This first thing isn’t supposed to happen: When the Federal Reserve cuts short-term interest rates, long-term rates generally fall in tandem. But since the Fed’s “shock and awe” 50-basis point cut in September, bond yields have spiked: Bond traders appear to doubt the Fed’s ability to lower rates and hold inflation in check. That’s bad in the […]
October 22, 2024 | About That: Should Baby Boomers Get More Government Money?
Aged populations are ballooning government deficits in most countries. The Bloc Québécois has threatened to force a snap election if Canada’s federal government doesn’t increase Old Age Security payments for people between the ages of 65 and 74 by 10 per cent. Andrew Chang breaks down the dilemma before the Liberals and why economists say […]
October 21, 2024 | Biden Blames Trump for his $1.8 Trillion Deficit – What Propaganda
I am sick and tired of all the constant lies. The Biden Administration blames Trump for its $1.8 trillion deficit. The interest expenditures will be about $1 trillion alone. Now, if you just accept that at face value, you are part of the problem when the United States will crash and burn. This makes it […]
October 21, 2024 | Grantham: The Bigger The New Idea, The More The Market Overshoots
For those able to hear truth and facts… Today on the podcast, we’re delighted to welcome back Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy is the long-term investment strategist at his namesake firm, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., or GMO, which he cofounded in 1977. Here is a direct audio link. “Bubbles and enthusiasm, ecstasy, they’re all kind of […]
October 21, 2024 | Jumbo Cuts
Happy Monday Morning! Some good news on the inflation front. Headline CPI cooled to 1.6% in September, slower than the median estimate of 1.8% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. For the first time since February 2021 inflation is now below the central bank’s 2% target and has been within its target range for nine […]
October 20, 2024 | Frozen Homes
Official inflation data, while imperfect in many ways, at least has the advantage of being consistently imperfect. This lets us make comparisons across time. The magnitude may be off, but the direction is usually right (except at unusually sharp turns like 2020). Currently it shows most prices moving back toward “normal” with one prominent exception: housing, which […]
October 20, 2024 | Investors Go All-In for Trump
Wall Street has gone all-in for Trump, piling up such extravagant gains in the last few weeks that one might wonder what bold miracles investors expect of him. More likely, unfortunately, is that within a year or two of taking office, he will be overwhelmed by the collapse of a financial bubble that required only […]
October 20, 2024 | Can Biden Declare Marshal Law To Suspend the Election?
QUESTION: Marty, you are a constitutional scholar. I heard your father was quite brilliant and defended the Constitution, even going against McCarthy. I would like to hear your legal opinion on the topic: Can Biden declare Marshal Law like Zelensky and postpone the election? DR ANSWER: YES! The question of the constitutional status of […]
October 20, 2024 | Time To Overwhelm Them With Thought Crimes
“Thoughtcrime was not a thing that could be concealed for ever. You might dodge successfully for a while, even for years, but sooner or later they were bound to get you”. – Orwell’s 1984 “They do not even need evidence to condemn someone they believe is guilty”. – Orwell’s 1984 Many people have joked that […]