ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
February 4, 2025 | Canadian Insolvencies at 15-Year High and Rising
According to the latest Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals, 2024 saw a 15-year high in Canadian business and consumer insolvencies—about 375 daily. The group expects pressure on companies and consumers to continue in 2025 amid threats from potential tariffs and mortgage renewals. See, Insolvencies in Canada rose 12.1% in 2024, led by business filings: […]
February 4, 2025 | Panama Aligns with the US Against China – Panama Exits BRI
Panama was presented with an ultimatum to control foreign Chinese influence in the Panama canal or face retaliatory measures. While retaliatory measures were not specified, the State Department said that Panama was violating the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal, and the US would move to protect itself. Secretary of […]
February 3, 2025 | Zelensky says 58% of Money from US is Missing
Zelensky is preparing for DOGE. We are going to need a new crop of conspiracy theories. They are all coming true one by one.
February 3, 2025 | Tariffs & Housing
Happy Monday Morning! We are now in the midst of a full blown tariff war. There’s plenty of smart economic commentary out there, so let’s get into it. According to BMO’s chief economist, Doug Porter, “Trump’s tariff hammer will come down hard on Canada’s economy. If the announced tariffs remain in place for one year, […]
February 3, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, February 2025
Making America fun to watch again… Transforming government with the stroke of a pen. (Sensitive readers should skip this one.) And in case anyone still needs to be reminded, never believe anything you haven’t personally witnessed:
February 3, 2025 | Starting Points Matter Most of All
How long the Trump bump will continue in stock prices is everyone’s guess. Still, great expectations increase room for disappointment, and nothing matters more to long-term investment returns than the level of fundamental valuation at the starting point. Donald Trump comes back to office astride extreme confidence and the most highly valued stock market of […]
February 3, 2025 | It’s a Big Club and You Ain’t in It
“The politicians are put there to give you the idea that you have freedom of choice. You don’t. You have no choice! You have OWNERS! They OWN YOU. They own everything. They own all the important land. They own and control the corporations. They’ve long since bought, and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the […]
February 2, 2025 | CalExit
COMMENT: My question is about your forecast that the separation of the United States would begin with California and that 2022 would be the turn in your model. Please explain how you came to the 2022 target and how this separation will develop. DVS ANSWER: The target 2022 was 172 years (2 x 8.6) […]
February 2, 2025 | Nvidia Breaks Support – Is a Tech-to-Commodities Shift Underway?
Here are two key charts to focus on this week. First, we examine the S&P 500 heat map, which highlights last week’s biggest losers—many of which were major tech stocks. Among them, Nvidia stood out as the biggest tech loser of the week. By now, the impact of DeepSeek on the AI modeling landscape is widely recognized. For […]
February 2, 2025 | Mainstream Media Muffle China’s Breakthrough
Bloggers were revved up when last week began, trumpeting a warning that China’s DeepSeek R1 threatened to crush America’s capital-intensive effort to lead the world in AI development. ZeroHedge was among the first to jump on the story. “The future of humanity is being decided as we speak,” wrote Mark Whitney. “This is a full-blown, […]
February 2, 2025 | Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World
“There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote from Vladimir Lenin, who may have copied it from someone else. Regardless of origin, it is true and will be even more true as technology and even government changes faster. We may have just lived through such a week for the […]
February 1, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for February 1, 2025
THIS IS NOT A DRILL It was a hectic week in the markets, but two events were especially significant: 1) The spot S&P traded to all-time highs last Friday, January 25, but the S&P futures gapped lower Sunday afternoon and fell hard early Monday on the DeepSeek story (blue ellipse) and 2) The S&P rallied all week from […]
February 1, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday February 1st 2025
The Bottom Line Fourth quarter results released to date by S&P 500 companies have been impressive. They prompted analysts to raise their consensus fourth quarter earnings estimate for the S&P 500. On the other hand, analyst also lowered their consensus S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2025. Robust earnings growth is expected in 2025, but at […]
January 31, 2025 | Trump 2.0 is Destined to Fail
President Trump was inaugurated for the second time on last week. He is taking over the Presidency at an unusual time for the economy and financial markets. Trump has only a small chance of living up to the hype and expectations over his promise to Make American Great Again. Trump takes over when the U.S. […]
January 31, 2025 | The Casino Enters “Peak Complexity”
Finance hasn’t been simple for a long time. Starting more or less in the 1980s, traditional instruments like stocks and bonds were joined by futures, options, private equity, junk bonds, and bespoke derivatives like credit default swaps. “Quants” now build “black box” trading algorithms to arbitrage the relationships between these things, and clients place bets […]
January 31, 2025 | Hunt: Global Capacity Under-Utilization Leading Unemployment Higher
Hoisington Management’s Fourth Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook is now available at this link. Always worth a mull. Here’s the main takeaway: “…fundamental determinants of inflation indicate the prospects for slower price increases are even more significant than in any year since the late 1990s. In addition to the growing factory capacity glut and rising UR […]
January 31, 2025 | Democrats Vow to Take Fight Against Trump to the Streets
The Trump Administration rescinded the freeze on federal programs, vowing to eliminate woke agencies in the coming weeks. The Democrats have become outraged over the president’s numerous, swift measures to undo the damage caused under Biden. The left believes in democracy when it suits them. The Dems lost control of both chambers of Congress […]
January 30, 2025 | The Rise of DeepSeek: Redefining the Future of AI?
The artificial intelligence (AI) landscape is on the brink of a seismic shift with the advent of DeepSeek, a Chinese startup that has developed an innovative AI model capable of rivaling top-tier offerings from global leaders such as OpenAI and Meta. DeepSeek’s groundbreaking approach, which combines cost-effective hardware with optimized software solutions, threatens to upend […]
January 30, 2025 | Global Debt Reaches 326% of GDP
Total global debt has peaked to 326% of global GDP, adding an additional $12 trillion of debt in the last three quarters of 2024, according to the Institute of International Finance. This figure surpasses what we saw amid the pandemic and is expected to continually rise and governments continue to borrow with no intention […]
January 29, 2025 | President Trump’s Tariff Agenda Weighs Heavily On Canadian Energy Sector
President Trump moved quickly to show he meant business with his Tariff’s. Colombia’s leftist President would not let US planes land in his country with deported criminals that were his citizens. President Trump threatened 25% tariffs immediately and 50% a week later. This would have severely hurt the Colombian economy which exports crude oil and […]
January 29, 2025 | US Seeks to Boost Semiconductor Chip Manufacturin
The chip shortage has been at the top of mind over the last week after the launch of DeepSeek, a novel AI service intended to compete with ChatGPT. Semiconductor manufacturers have left the US and previous plans to attract domestic production have failed. President Donald Trump has proposed a new idea to force production […]
January 29, 2025 | Recession Watch: Did the Everything Bubble Just Pop?
Real estate, being expensive to finance and highly volatile at market peaks, is frequently a catalyst for recessions. And as Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter reports, housing is sending “peak cycle” signals. The supply of new houses for sale is spiking to previous bubble levels: In some formerly hot markets, it’s even worse: Houses aren’t selling at today’s price/mortgage […]
January 29, 2025 | Pent-up Listings Hope for Spring Demand
The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut interest rates by 25 bps this morning, bringing the overnight rate to 3%, 200 bps lower than when the central bank started easing in June 2024. Moreover, the BoC announced it would restart quantitative easing (Treasury buying) in March to reduce longer-term yields/interest rates and increase liquidity in the […]
January 28, 2025 | Tariff Threats Successful – Colombia to Accept Returned Citizens
Tariffs never work, but threats often do when it is known they will be carried out. Donald Trump threatened Colombia with massive tariffs, sanctions, and travel bans if the nation refused to take back thousands of illegal Colombian migrants. Within ONE HOUR, Colombia agreed to all terms and conditions. Two repatriation flights to Colombia […]
January 28, 2025 | Insolvency Cycle Picking Up
‘Maximizing shareholder value’ has been about pumping up near-term valuations at the expense of long-term financial health and viability. Private equity is excellent at this. Kristina Partsinevelos joins CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the latest data on bankruptcies. Here is a direct video link. Households are increasingly struggling. The American consumer is showing some signs of […]