ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
March 19, 2025 | Powell – The Fed- Inflation – Recession
Jerome Powell kept rates unchanged as our computer was projecting. However, he did weigh in on the state of the US economy, pointing out that Donald Trump’s policies were one reason why inflation is turning back up. He also reduced the Fed’s 2025 growth projection, noting that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. The […]
March 19, 2025 | Macro Update: Powell’s Dangerous Trap
Inflation is dropping quickly, and other concerning trends, including mass layoffs, are developing. But you wouldn’t know it from reading the headlines. QI Research founder Danielle DiMartino Booth has been calling attention to underreported recession signals since our last interview in May, when she highlighted rising store closures and job losses. As she said then, […]
March 18, 2025 | Putin Would be a Fool Again To Agree to Complete Cease-Fire as EU Prepares for War
QUESTION: Did your sources tell you that Putin would reject the complete cease-fire? You seem always to be spot on. FK ANSWER: In all honesty, you shouldn’t even need sources for that. The Europeans have been undermining Trump at every turn. Putin would be a fool to accept a complete caesar-fire because Zelensky is an […]
March 18, 2025 | U.S. Recession Odds Spike with Households Pessimistic and Risk-Exposed
Last week’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey saw economic expectations plunge for Democrats, Independents and Republicans. Those expecting an improved financial situation one year from now reached the lowest since 1980 (shown below, courtesy of The Daily Shot). Those seeing improving employment conditions were the least since the 2008 recession (red line below since […]
March 18, 2025 | Market Recovery or Temporary Relief? Key Insights on S&P 500 & Gold
The S&P 500 closed higher for the second consecutive day, marking a positive turn after four weeks of negative results. The index rose 0.6% to 5,675.12, showing signs of recovery after entering correction territory last week. However, Tesla and Nvidia bucked the trend, with Tesla down 5.36% to $236.55 and Nvidia down 1.98% to $119.27. […]
March 17, 2025 | Gone Missing
Happy Monday Morning! Canada has a new Prime Minister. Mark Carney was installed as leader of the country this past week. How long he lasts is anyone’s guess, but if he does eventually survive a federal election he will have some difficult decisions. One of which is housing. Real Estate sales are circling the drain, […]
March 17, 2025 | Understanding Gold
COMMENT: Thank you for your honest analysis of gold. Whenever someone talks about gold and inflation, they are not accurate analysts but mouth the same propaganda that has been prevalent since the fall of Bretton Woods. I discussed this with our economics department, and they said you are correct. The quantity of money […]
March 17, 2025 | The MSM Discovers Copper
Copper has had a quietly impressive run so far in 2025. But much more is coming as mainstream investors tune into the story. Consider this, from NPR of all places: Forget about rare earth minerals. We need more copper (NPR) – In recent weeks, you’ve likely heard a lot about rare-earth substances, thanks to President Trump’s stalled […]
March 16, 2025 | The Inflationista Illuminati
Last week we published a chart of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which had just dropped sharply to a -2.4% real GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025. This model can be volatile. Its latest big swing was mostly an artifact of spiking gold imports. Economic growth prospects do seem to have dimmed […]
March 16, 2025 | Capital Flows Canada, Mexico, Europe
COMMENT: Martin, I just had to commend you on your capital flow models. Anyone who does not acknowledge that is a fraud and not trustworthy. As your clip showed from 1991, everyone knew you invented that analysis. While others claim that capital is fleeing from the United States to Europe, they are fake news […]
March 16, 2025 | One Last Melt-Up?
Will there be one last melt-up before this doddering bull market seeks penance? Some of my fellow gurus believe a final show of bravado is coming, especially those who base their predictions on Elliott Wave Theory. I think the party is over, but I’m forced to admit that if too many traders agree with me, […]
March 16, 2025 | Nomi Prins: Time to Buy the Uranium Dip
Nomi Prins just posted an explanation for the uranium miners’ recent correction, and why it’s a buying opportunity for those who missed the previous big run. Here’s an excerpt: Why NOW is the Time for Uranium Here’s the latest outlook on uranium and what you need to know about the factors impacting its price. As we round […]
March 16, 2025 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
March 15, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 15, 2025
Current positioning: I’m long S&P futures as of Friday morning. See My short-term trading section below for more detail. The S&P closed Red for four consecutive weeks The S&P hit all-time highs on July 16, 2024 (the first ellipse), then tumbled ~10% to August 5 lows on the “Yen-carry” scare. The market recovered, traded above the July […]
March 15, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday March 15th 2025
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the FOMC decision on U.S. interest rates released on Wednesday. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 4.5%. Extension of the U.S. Debt Ceiling by the Senate on Friday night is expected to help U.S. equity prices on Monday morning. Seasonal influences […]
March 14, 2025 | US Deficit Surpassed $1 Trillion in February
According to the Treasury Department, America’s deficit surpassed the $1 trillion mark this February. The deficit reached $307 billion for the month, marking a 2.5X increase on a monthly basis and 3.7% higher on an annual basis. The deficit for the first five months of FY25 hit $1.15 trillion, a $318 billion increase (+38%) from […]
March 14, 2025 | Civil War in the UK?
I just watched a disturbingly plausible video about the rising odds of a UK civil war. The source is David Betz, a professor of “war in the modern world” at King’s College, London. He recently published an article titled Civil War Comes to the West in Military Strategy Magazine, in which he claimed that multiculturalism and mass immigration […]
March 14, 2025 | Interest Rate Cuts Won’t Be Enough To Save The Canadian Economy
Canadian central bankers cut their official rate by ¼ of a percent on Wednesday this week. But that won’t be enough to boost the economy in the face of higher tariffs and repeated threats from the U.S. President. How bad will the downturn get? Tiff Macklem and his colleagues at the Bank of Canada did […]
March 14, 2025 | Lessons From China (and Japan)
China’s economy is slowing. Amid weak borrowing, slack investment, deflationary pressures and uneven growth, the evidence points to China slipping into a “balance sheet recession”—a phenomenon our guest, Richard Koo, first diagnosed during Japan’s lost decades of the 90s, and then identified in the financial crises of both Europe and the U.S. The former New […]
March 13, 2025 | WTI Prices Lift As US Consumption Rises 5.1% Last Week.
President Trump freaked out stock markets with his on-off switch of new tariffs and threats against the US’s key trading partners. Canada is getting the brunt of these social media attacks. Trump threatens, then trade negotiators from both sides get to work on the details and persuade Trump to relent and there are reverses in […]
March 13, 2025 | Canada to Take Over for USAID?
Canada has agreed to fund woke programs abandoned by USAID. As the nation grapples with a barely functioning government and cost of living crisis, the Canadian government is funding what it believes to be a top priority – implementing LGBTQ programs in a Muslim nation. Canada’s Minister of International Development, Ahmed Hussen, announced that […]
March 13, 2025 | Canada Between Rock and Hard Place
As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut overnight interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, lowering the banking system’s base rate to 2.75%, the lowest since September 2022. In his prepared statement, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem struck a grave tone, saying, “We’re now facing a new crisis. Depending on the extent and duration of new […]
March 13, 2025 | Market Update: Key Levels, Tech Rebounds & Apple’s Warning Sign
On Wednesday, March 12, 2025, U.S. stock markets closed with mixed results. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla climbing 7.59%, Palantir rising 7.17%, and Nvidia advancing 6.42%. In contrast, consumer stocks lagged, as Target fell 4.86%, Procter & Gamble declined 2.74%, and Walmart edged down 2.56%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite saw a rebound, but until proven otherwise, […]
March 12, 2025 | Gold Porn, Part 2: It’s a Real Bull Market
Gold (and now silver) are starting to do things not seen for over a decade. And the resulting charts are just gorgeous. Some recent examples: Foreign central banks are moving out of US Treasuries and into gold: Overindebted countries are cranking the money printing up to panic levels: Gold and silver are responding with identical […]