ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 29, 2024 | California’s Exit Tax
People have been leaving California in droves due to Governor Gavin Newsom’s socialistic Utopia that demands everyone be taxed on every penny they earn. I’ve long warned that California was unfriendly for businesses and investors. Those who stayed behind will now need to pay to leave under Assembly Bill 2088. California plans to implement […]
April 29, 2024 | Sagging Used-Car Prices, Spiking Maintenance & Repair Costs, and a Post-Bankruptcy Propaganda Coup Turn Toxic for Hertz
Rental car operator Hertz Global Holdings has had a nasty time in the stock market since it emerged from bankruptcy (filed Chapter 11 in May 2020, emerged on June 30, 2021). The new stock closed on the first day of trading at $26.99, then wobbled lower until the meme-stock crowd briefly fancied it again, and […]
April 28, 2024 | The Day We Stopped Trusting Media
One of the first posts in this newsletter’s Shrinking Trust Horizon series was about how “deep fake” technology will make fake images, videos, and audio recordings almost indistinguishable from the real thing. This will kill millions of modeling and acting jobs, while weaponizing audio and video in all kinds of disturbing ways. That day has apparently arrived: […]
April 28, 2024 | When Absolute Returns Are Not Absolute
This week is part two of our conversation about alternative investments. As I pointed out last week, this space has evolved into a distinct asset class of its own. I believe investors need to understand the good, the bad, and the ugly aspects of investing in alternatives. The Strategic Investment Conference is going very well. […]
April 28, 2024 | Science for Those Who Hate Science
Decades ago, there was an article titled “Jazz for People Who Hate Jazz”. The idea was to introduce those who did not know to those who did know. More recently and unfortunately, government-sponsored dogma has promoted an anti-science movement – ironically – in the name of “science”. Disgustingly, mainly for power and money. . Ironically, […]
April 28, 2024 | Red-Hot Nvidia Recalls RCA Mania of 1929
The chart above shows RCA’s spectacular climb to the Mother of All Tops in 1929. The larger chart that frames it shows what Nvidia shares would have to do to replicate the peaks and troughs that set up RCA’s plunge into hell. Notice that the stock’s final top (#4) was just marginally higher than one […]
April 28, 2024 | Beware of 2025
QUESTION: Hi Martin, What are you thoughts on holding cash into 2028? You said cash was king, but there would come a time to abandon cash. It seems this CBDC thing is what you are talking about. Do you have any time yet? See you in London Kind regards, HF ANSWER: Europeans are much more familiar […]
April 27, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For April 27, 2024
Is buying the Yen in anticipation of another “Plaza Accord” the Trade of the Year or just another attempt to catch a falling piano? The BoJ did nothing at their scheduled meeting this week, and the Yen collapsed to a new 34-year low against the USD and hit an All-Time low against the Euro (which has only been around for 26 years.) […]
April 27, 2024 | Fed’s Wait-and-See on Rate Cuts Further Supported by Extra-Hot “Core Services” PCE Inflation & Hot “Core” PCE Inflation
The core PCE price index, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy and is the inflation index the Fed is focused on, jumped by 3.9% annualized in March from February, nearly double the Fed’s target of 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today (blue in the chart). The three-month annualized core […]
April 27, 2024 | Why Trump Can Only be Put on Trial by Congress – Not the Department of Justice
QUESTION: I would love to hear your legal comments on Trump’s immunity claim. EP ANSWER: I would approach this from a geopolitical and practical manner. Trump MUST be completely immune from bringing any criminal or civil charges against him by the government when he is President – yes, even if he killed someone and […]
April 27, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 27th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus this week in on the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 5.25%-5.50%. The question is “How long will the Fed maintain this rate?” Release of a slightly “hotter than consensus” March core […]
April 26, 2024 | How Far Can The Yen Fall Before Japan Goes Bankrupt? We may be about to find out
Japan’s ongoing march to national bankruptcy has been a recurring theme here. See: Japan Is In That Box Japan Takes Another Step Towards the Cliff How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps Now the death spiral has entered a new phase, with the yen/dollar exchange rate heading straight down: To restate the “Japan collapse” […]
April 26, 2024 | Tesla Reports Poor Results and The Share Price Spikes Higher
Tesla, Inc. had a closely watched first quarter report, outlining poor results this week. But the markets’ initial reaction was positive, even if the financial results were underwhelming. Why would the market push the stock 10 percent higher after disappointing results? Tesla reported a 9 percent decline in revenue after a previously reported decline in […]
April 26, 2024 | Private Equity More Boondoggle Than Brilliance
I’ve frequently spoken and written about leverage-on-leverage contagion risks from the private equity and credit markets with feedback loops to real estate. Some of the articles are here. As interest rates slumped in the decade leading up to 2022, this space increasingly attracted yield-starved capital from institutions and individuals alike. Our capital management firm was inundated […]
April 26, 2024 | US GDP & Recession into 2028
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Socrates correctly picked March as the Directional Change, and it looks like there will be a sharp decline into June. Are you expecting a serious recession with the May 7th turning point on your Economic Confidence Model? SH PS It seems like Jamie Diamond uses Socrates since he has just said what you […]
April 26, 2024 | What’s Behind: “Sell in May and Go Away”
There is considerable history behind the gem of stock market lore to “Sell in May”. The real explanation is readily provided by the record of Great Bubbles as they occurred in the London financial markets. There were five to the 1929 example. Four climaxed in May. And one, the infamous 1720 South Sea Bubble climaxed […]
April 26, 2024 | The Nice Part about Getting Old
The nice part about getting old (I’ll be 77 in one week) is that you’ve experienced more than most people – and that includes real estate cycles. U.S. housing prices may be at record highs today – but as I continue to illustrate in my Timing Letters, a massive mean reversion is likely […]
April 25, 2024 | Plastic Recycling is a Myth: Here’s How We Fix That
Understanding the truth about plastic is key to finding solutions. Globally, only 9% of plastic is ever recycled, and even that tiny amount requires some virgin plastic to maintain quality. But scientists have discovered a new way to address this issue: “plastivores”, organisms that have evolved to eat plastic using enzymes in their bodies. Can […]
April 25, 2024 | Democrats Praying for a Trump Assassination?
COMMENT: I have been a Democrat all my life, and I am 72. I suppose I was a Democrat because my father was. Like you, after watching what they have been doing to Trump and the flood of illegal aliens that have resulted in my own neighborhood becoming no longer safe, I will […]
April 24, 2024 | Rates Weighing on Too-High Home Prices
First quarter new condo sales in the Toronto region dropped to their lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis, with investors balking at lofty purchase prices and higher borrowing costs. See New condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area hit 15-year low: “It is dead. I would never use words like this, but I am because […]
April 24, 2024 | Global Taxation – Proposal to Fight Climate Change and Poverty
Finance ministers from France and Brazil are urging the G20 to implement a minimum 2% tax on billionaires in an effort to fight climate change and poverty. Everyone cheers when the suggestion is to tax someone else, but feigns shock when the rules expand and everyone experiences rising taxation. Global collaborative efforts such as […]
April 23, 2024 | Banks Wage War on Gun Ownership
The government has successfully weaponized the banks against the people. Major banks are voluntarily sharing customers’ private transactions with the federal government “as part of a wildly overbroad financial surveillance scheme intended to identify domestic terrorists,” a group of attorneys general wrote in a letter to Bank of America in regards to discrimination against […]
April 23, 2024 | Mortgage Pain Has Not Peaked Yet
Despite spring market optimism, US Home sales in March posted their most significant decline in more than a year (-4.3% month-over-month–largest monthly decline since November 2022) as 30-year fixed mortgage rates moved back above 7% from just over 6% in early February. See Housing Market Slumps as Mortgage Rates Top 7%. Also, see, This could be the year […]
April 22, 2024 | Is The AI Bubble Bursting? Wolf Richter’s WTF Charts
Artificial intelligence, which a few years ago existed only in science fiction (check out William Gibson’s Neuromancer), has morphed into an epic stock bubble. Nvidia, maker of the leading AI microchips, saw its market cap surge from $200 billion in 2019 to $2 trillion in 2023. I haven’t actually checked, but that might be the fastest […]
April 22, 2024 | China Exporting Deflation (encore)
China’s epic property bust has left it with a glut of materials and products that it is now exporting globally. This will help ease inflationary pressures and threaten the viability of competitors. As construction at home has dried up, Chinese steel exports have risen 33% year over year, and the excess supply goes far beyond steel to […]