ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
January 12, 2025 | Who Will Insure Us Against the Next Disaster?
Although the major indices were down just 1.6% on Friday, it felt like a big day. Everything that matters to the U.S. economy was moving the wrong way: stocks were falling across the board; interest rates and energy prices were climbing; dollars were growing dearer, especially for debtors; and gold, perhaps imagining a bevy of […]
January 12, 2025 | China – Deflation into 2026 & Beyond
QUESTION: Thank you so much for your world forecasts. It is very helpful to be able to read you here in China. You said that deflation is in motion into 2028. People are cutting back on spending and your model has been correct here in China. Could you provide a quick overview for 2025? […]
January 11, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for January 11, 2025
Rising bond yields are weighing on the stock market but have boosted the US dollar 30-year Treasury yields hit a 15-month high of 5% following Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment report. Since September 2024, the Fed has cut short rates by 100 bps, but bond yields have risen ~100 bps on concerns that continuing government deficit spending will sustain […]
January 11, 2025 | CBDC: The End of Money (Movie)
Click the following link to watch the film “CBDC: The End of Money” Central Bank Digital Currencies are being pushed worldwide by the Bank of International Settlements and governments. Are we witnessing the natural evolution of money into a fully digital form or a pervasive system of social control masquerading as money? This […]
January 11, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 11th 2025
The Bottom Line Good news on the economy in December was bad news for U.S. and Canadian equity markets on Friday: Stronger than expected December Non-farm Payrolls in the U.S. and higher Canadian December employment exceeding consensus estimates were reported. In response, government bond yields on both sides of the border spiked higher and the […]
January 10, 2025 | The UK’s Strange Collapse
In theory, the UK dodged a bullet by withdrawing from the EU back in 2020. Once again in control of its borders and budgets, it had the chance to slow immigration to a manageable rate, rationalize its tax, spending, and regulatory regimes, and chart its own course as a free, wealthy financial center and mid-tier geopolitical power. […]
January 10, 2025 | A Credit Crunch Coming Soon
Hints of an imminent credit crunch in the U.S. and Canada are piling up. Too much debt in commercial real estate, residential real estate, credit card balances, personal loans, mortgages, builders’ construction loans and even governments could trigger a crisis of failure to repay debts. This chart shows U.S. private sector debt since 1834 and […]
January 10, 2025 | Market on Edge: Is Nvidia Signaling a Bigger Pullback Ahead?
Let’s start with the hottest stock in the hottest sector of the market. Nvidia just unveiled its new compact AI superchip, the GB10, and its stock soared to a record high of $153.13 at yesterday’s open. It’s a textbook example of a meteoric rise. But it turns out it was the classic rally on the […]
January 9, 2025 | Legacy Media Suddenly Outraged Over Biden’s Mental Health
There is suddenly an outpouring of anger from the legacy media aimed at the Democrats who hid Biden’s mental health decline. Every channel now discusses what those with eyes, ears, and, most importantly, INDEPENDENT thoughts already knew. The same journalists who spent the past eight years demonizing Donald Trump are now outraged at their […]
January 9, 2025 | Risk-Blind Bets Are All The Rage
Risk complacency is evident in exuberantly priced assets. Stocks do not provide contractually prescribed interest payments or a return of principal date. Some pay dividends, but these are always at the discretion of corporate management and can and should be cut when a company’s financial circumstances warrant it. When a company becomes insolvent, creditors and […]
January 8, 2025 | Rhyming History: Weimar Germany’s Hyperinflation
There have been some epic hyperinflations over the centuries, but none was as brutal — and consequential — as Germany’s in the early 1920s. Here’s a quick Chat GPT summary followed by some graphic images and a list of lessons the world should have — but apparently hasn’t — learned: Context of Post-World War I Germany: After […]
January 8, 2025 | US Crude Oil Inventory Build Lowers WTI Price – Correction Underway
The Biden administration is leaving in two weeks and the White House continues to spend whatever funds authorized by Congress and that the President can spend under Presidential authority before Inauguration Day. The result may be that the incoming administration comes in with a run rate of a US$3T+ deficit and all Biden’s favourite programs […]
January 8, 2025 | The Biggest Global Risks for 2025
Many moving parts are pulling in opposite directions. This discussion highlights some big ones. 2025 ushers in one of the most dangerous periods in world history — on par with the 1930s and early Cold War, says Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. Highlighting the top geopolitical risks for the […]
January 8, 2025 | Zuckerberg to End Company Fact-Checking Censorship
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is swiftly reversing course before Donald Trump takes office. Zuckerberg openly used Meta, formerly Facebook, as a propaganda tool to influence US elections, promote the COVID agenda, and deplatform anyone speaking out against the establishment. Zuckerberg began to change his tune over the summer when his company was investigated by […]
January 7, 2025 | MKUltra Documents Declassified
Psychological warfare is far more powerful than bullets. The government has been studying methods of brainwashing for decades. Perhaps the most infamous studies fall under the MKUltra program that the CIA conducted from 1953 to 1964 on unsuspecting victims who did not know they were participating in a brutal study. The MKUltra experiments have been […]
January 7, 2025 | Different Countries Similar Challenges
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in December, now up 210 basis points (bps) from the 4.8% low in June 2022 (below in blue). The U.S. unemployment rate, at 4.2%, has risen 80 bps since it bottomed in April 2023. There has never been a time when unemployment has increased this much outside of recessions.Moreover, […]
January 6, 2025 | Unaffordable Home Prices Weigh
Asset bubbles create unproductive debt and uneconomic pricing, which magnifies financial trauma as prices reverse. Most Canadians now live in cities where the average home price is five to twelve times the average household income (shown below, courtesy of WOWA.ca). The long-term ‘affordable’ norm was three times, max. This reality increases financial vulnerability for households, […]
January 6, 2025 | Results May Vary
Happy Monday Morning! Welcome to a New Year. The Real Estate industry remains optimistic that 2025 will finally mark the end of the housing bear market, after what’s been a grueling few years. Are we really turning the corner, or is there more pain to come? Let’s do a deep dive on the Vancouver housing […]
January 6, 2025 | Biden Bans Oil Drilling Before Exiting Office
President Joe Biden has invoked the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act to prevent Donald Trump from permitting new oil and natural gas leases. Offshore drilling in federal waters along the East and West coasts of the US, eastern Gulf of Mexico, and portions of the northern Bering Sea in Alaska are now forbidden. Biden boasted […]
January 5, 2025 | The Stale US Real Estate Market
Home sales in the US rose to a four-year high after rising 12.1% YoY, according to a new Redfin report. As I stated, we are entered a buyer’s market in May of 2024 in line with the ECM. Gone are the days of bidding wars and skipped inspections. Home inventory has picked up significantly […]
January 5, 2025 | It’s Time to Tune Out Wall Street’s Siren Song
The party is over, or so says the chart above. It is a long-term picture of the E-Mini S&Ps, and it shows the futures rolling down after touching a 6136 target that has been nearly five years in coming. Actually, it has taken nearly 16 years to get there since the longest bull market in […]
January 5, 2025 | A Controversial Start
It was an amazingly short week, punctuated by making 20 gallons of chili, serving almost 300 of my neighbors, and then recovering the next day, which didn’t leave a lot of time for in-depth analysis and forecasts. I’m sure you will be happy with the shortened letter as we cover some of the main events […]
January 4, 2025 | Mexico 2025
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I want to thank you for your work. It is refreshing to read a non-biased analysis of our country. I do not say this to flatter you. I am honestly appreciative of your work and independence in the age where everything is fake news here, too, in Mexico. The peso has weakened […]
January 4, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for January 4, 2025
Will the stock market’s “Trump Bump” be sustained? The S&P sold off ahead of the November 5th election, rallied on election day (circle on the chart), gapped sharply higher the day after the election, and then rallied to record highs in early December. The market drifted sideways near all-time highs for ten trading sessions in early December […]
January 4, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 4th 2025
The Bottom Line Technical signs of a short term bottom were recorded by U.S. and Canadian exchange indices last week. TSX Composite Index has started to outperform the S&P 500 Index, typical for this time of year.