ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 11, 2024 | Trump Trolls Trudeau – Bank of Canada Takes Note
US-Canada relations under the Trump Administration are beginning on tumultuous footing. Trump has promised to slap Canada with 25% tariffs on ALL imports if it fails to curb illegal immigration and drug trade from the northern border. Trudeau is now threatening to retaliate with tariffs of his own. The Bank of Canada has factored in […]
December 11, 2024 | Are We Running Out Of Copper? This Image Says Yes Ah, the good old days…
Lots of people envy some aspects of their grandparents’ lives, with good reason: Houses used to cost $40,000, college tuition used to be a few thousand dollars a year, and the air used to be free of plastic nanoparticles. Those really were the good old days. But you know who would really like to go […]
December 11, 2024 | Florida’s ‘Condo Cliff’
I regularly hear about people thinking of selling their Florida real estate due to escalating costs. An aged population increasingly feels the same way, and the weak loonie is a final catalyst for many Canadians. Who will be willing to buy from all those looking to sell? After the deadly Florida condominium collapse in Surfside […]
December 10, 2024 | Market Snakes Follow Ladders
Canada’s Venture Composite Index (a basket of economically sensitive micro-cap companies, 44% weighted in materials, 30% information technology, 15.74% in energy, 3.5% health care, 2.48% financials, 1.85% industrials, .58% communication services, and .32% consumer discretionary) appears to concur with former BoC head Stephen Poloz’s recessionary assessment. When the real economy expands, rising demand for commodities […]
December 10, 2024 | Undermining the Debt Creates Recessions and Depressions
Many mistakenly look to the stock market as the leading indication of economic security. The true culprit is the DEBT market, not the stock market, that leads to depressions and recessions. A recession, in comparison to a depression, is merely a minor impact that could be isolated to one nation. Unemployment will typically rise up […]
December 9, 2024 | Housing Vibes
Happy Monday Morning! We’re in a recession, I wouldn’t even call it a technical one. Those were the words from former Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz this past week. It appears Poloz also agrees with our view, that despite the finance ministers best attempt at quieting the animal spirts, this is not a vibecession, but […]
December 9, 2024 | Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World
The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate: Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record: Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring […]
December 9, 2024 | Cash Crunch Set to Intensify in 2025
Some 1.2 million Canadian mortgages are set to renew in 2025. In 2021, those taken out with 3—to 5-year terms had an average interest rate of 2.05%. Today, even after 125 basis points of overnight rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, the average fixed rate on offer with a 20% downpayment is 4.39 to […]
December 9, 2024 | Ellen Brown: How to Escape the Federal Debt Trap
By Ellen Brown / Original to ScheerPost The U.S. national debt just passed $36 trillion, only four months after it passed $35 trillion and up $2 trillion for the year. Third quarter data is not yet available, but interest payments as a percent of tax receipts rose to 37.8% in the third quarter of 2024, […]
December 8, 2024 | Homes for Christmas
Ever notice how “home” is so important to our holiday traditions? It’s hard to imagine Christmas without images of a fireplace, a tree, some food, and rooms with festive decorations. Families gather in such rooms to form lifelong bonds and memories. My neighborhood here in Puerto Rico really goes all out on Christmas decorations. There […]
December 8, 2024 | Is Trump Right about the Canadian Border? | About That
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and his incoming border czar claim their country’s northern border with Canada is a threat to national security. Andrew Chang breaks down the basis of the claims about drugs and illegal migrants streaming into the country from Canada, and to what extent they’re true. Here is a direct video link.
December 8, 2024 | Becoming Invisible, Part 16: China Just Stole Everything
It’s bad enough that our phones and cars (and vacuum cleaners and doorbells) track, save, and sell our texts, phone calls, and location data. But that may be just the beginning. From Mark Jeftovic’s Axis of Easy daily briefing: China Hacks US Telecom Giants in Massive Espionage Operation The “Salt Typhoon” hacking campaign, attributed to China, has […]
December 8, 2024 | Korea Political Crisis
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I first want to thank you for your forecast on South Korea, which you delivered here in Asia. I understand this is the computer. Others would call you a seer. I wonder if you have time to update that forecast since we are as divided here in South Korea as […]
December 8, 2024 | The Herd Is Even More Fearless than in 1929
Skittish about the stock market’s manic climb? Consider moving some of your savings into T-bills, which are currently yielding around 4.25%. You could do worse. Some of my friends are reluctant to take even a little money off the table because 2024 was such an incredible year for them. One is a retired lawyer who […]
December 7, 2024 | The Tyranny in Canada Accelerates
The Third Wave of Canada ended in 2022, and we have begun the Fourth Wave, leading to more authoritarianism, and the Trudeau government seeks to retain power. But this immediate 8.6-year wave reaches its peak in 2026.59. There is no question that the centralized government of Trudeau recognizes that the end is near. They are […]
December 7, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 7, 2024
Tech stocks led the indices higher this week. AAPL hit new record highs, up ~11% in a month and ~50% in eight months. TSLA had another good week, up ~56% since the election and 2.8X in the last eight months. AMZN is at record highs, up ~15% since the election and ~50% in the last four […]
December 7, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 7th 2024
The Bottom Line U.S. economic focuses this week are on November CPI released on Wednesday and November PPI released on Thursday. Canadian focus is on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Consensus calls for at least a 0.25 basis point reduction. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com Earnings […]
December 6, 2024 | Volkswagen Protests – The Contagion Begins
Tens of thousands of Volkswagen employees have halted production to protest proposed pay cuts. The German automaker has stated it will need to close three manufacturing plants due to rising labor expenses, material shortages, and, most importantly – the climate change agenda that has demonized fossil fuels. Over 120,000 workers now face a 10% pay […]
December 6, 2024 | Stock Prices Reach Bubble Levels in US
The U.S. stock market is extremely expensive, by all measures. Technology companies like Nvidia lead the way, but even the average stock is overvalued in relation to past cycles. When will there be a correction in the U.S. stock market? As we approach 2025 the markets continue to surge higher, perhaps not surprising as Wall […]
December 6, 2024 | Caught Between Rising Unemployment and a High Cost of Living
This morning, we learned that Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November, the highest since September 2021 and January 2017. It is now up 200 basis points (bps) from the cycle low of 4.8% in June 2022 and has never increased this much outside of a recession. Of the 50,000 new jobs created, 45,000 […]
December 5, 2024 | Bitcoin & the End of Money
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I just had to write in to say thank you for explaining that Bitcoin was just a trading asset, not some new currency that would replace the dollar. I understand that money must be elastic to grow with society in economic booms and population. I just read a quote reported by […]
December 5, 2024 | The Psychology of Money and Happiness
There are many wise, helpful insights in this discussion. In this episode, my guest is Morgan Housel, an expert in private wealth generation and management and author of the bestselling book The Psychology of Money. We discuss how desiring, pursuing, saving, and spending money impact our psychology and perception of wealth. We explore why people […]
December 5, 2024 | Creeping Fascism: Mike Benz On the Censorship-Industrial Complex
Back in February, I made the ambitious claim that former State Department analyst Mike Benz had released “the single most important thing currently available online.” Here it is: Now Benz is back with a nearly three-hour Joe Rogan episode in which he explains how the US has replaced the most evil bits of the CIA and State […]
December 4, 2024 | Trump to Block Japanese Steel Deal and Place Tariffs on Chinese Steel
Nippon Steel, a Japanese company, has offered to buy US Steel for $14.9 billion, yet both President Joe Biden and president-elect Donald Trump strongly oppose the deal. Both men believe it is vital to keep the historic company domestic. But why has America’s steel industry become less competitive? Demand for steel fell 0.4% YoY […]
December 4, 2024 | Thoughtful Investments Are The Only Ones Worth Making
The Canadian government’s plan to constrain population growth by reducing immigration over the next few years is designed to relieve demand pressure on key services like housing, education and health care. That’s needed. The downsides are that Canada’s economic growth will weaken, and the government will collect less revenue. RBC economists estimate the impact to be about […]