ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 13, 2024 | When the Democrats Say They Are Defending Democracy They Mean the Opposite
All we heard was they were defending Democracy by trying to keep Trump off the ballot and RFK, and they orchestrated a host of criminal actions against Trump, all by hand-picked Democratic prosecutors. Then I reported from the very beginning that Biden would step down after the Republican Convention and the scheme was to DENY the […]
August 13, 2024 | Where You Store It: Here’s a New Option
The choices for remote gold/silver bullion storage are multiplying. Here’s a new one that seems worthy of consideration. From the press release: Money Metals Opens Idaho-Based Gold Depository Larger Than Fort Knox Eagle, Idaho (August 12, 2024) – The Western United States now has its very own Fort Knox, only substantially larger. After three years of […]
August 13, 2024 | Canadian Real Estate Company Insolvency Outpacing Great Financial Crisis
From January to May this year, there was an average of 20 real estate, rental or leasing insolvencies in Canada every month where companies either sought bankruptcy protection or filed creditor proposals. At this pace, Canada is on track to reach about 240 corporate real estate insolvencies in 2024, which would be 57% more than in 2023 […]
August 12, 2024 | UK Govt Arresting Citizens over Mean Tweets
British Police: You’ve Made Some “Offensive” Comments on Facebook, and We’re Here to Arrest You After 3 young girls were brutally murdered, speech is the crime that police focus on. This type of sh*t is why Elon Musk believes, “Civil war is inevitable.” pic.twitter.com/WERQw79haJ — The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) August 6, 2024 The UK […]
August 12, 2024 | Slinging Mud
Happy Monday Morning! The cost of living and housing affordability remain the top areas of concern amongst Canadians, according to recent polling surveys. We’ve got an important provincial election this fall in BC, and the feds next year. If you’re a policy maker it’s time to look busy and that’s exactly what they’re doing- slinging mud […]
August 11, 2024 | 25 Years and Counting
I can’t let this month pass without noting a significant anniversary: This is the 25th year I’ve been writing Thoughts from the Frontline. The first few issues were lost to the electronic gods and my lack of technical prowess back then. That quickly changed. You can visit the archive and see every issue since January 2001 (including, trust […]
August 11, 2024 | Is this Election Going to All Fake Photos?
Is anything real anymore? This photo appears to be Photoshopped, for when you look at the reflection on the underbelly of the plane and on the engine, you do not see the crowd. Normally, Harris and her leftist attendant would pause and waive to people if they were really there. The polls will be rigged […]
August 11, 2024 | Weekend Short Takes: The Carry Trade, Mass Migration, Google Spying
There are more interesting ideas than time in which to consider them. So here’s a new series that bundles bite-sized explanations and suggestions into a quick weekend read. The Yen Carry Trade The “carry trade” is making headlines without, in many cases, being adequately explained. Last week The Kobeissi Letter fixed that with a concise (if […]
August 10, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for August 10, 2024
Mean reversion was nasty on Monday, but mellowed by Friday The Nikkei plunged to a 10-month low on Monday, down ~28% from July’s record highs and down ~20% in three trading days (the sharpest decline since the crash in October 1987.) By Friday’s close, the Nikkei had rebounded ~15% to close slightly higher on the […]
August 10, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 10th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on U.S. inflation and its impact on U.S. interest rates. Growth in Producer and Consumer Prices on a year-over-year basis continues to trend down, but at a lower rate. Traders will watch closely the July PPI report on Tuesday and the July CPI report on Wednesday. Second quarter […]
August 9, 2024 | Why Republics Will Fall
Republics are the worst form of government, for every representative can be bribed. Those who are honest get very frustrated, for they will pass rules to prevent anyone from actually even making a motion on the floor. Motions will have to come from Committees. If you do not play nicely, the speaker decides who gets […]
August 9, 2024 | The Stock Market Correction is a Warning Sign
U.S. stock markets crashed from Friday last week through Monday this week. High flying tech stocks cratered as well as the broad indexes like the S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei. Was this a crash of the large-cap technology sector, or does it signal the broader market is entering a bear phase? On Monday night some […]
August 8, 2024 | The Riots in the UK – Coming to the USA Soon
Our computer has been forecasting a major rise in civil unrest on a global scale. We are witnessing this from Nigeria to Europe and even in Britain. It will migrate to the United States, and we should be prepared for NOBODY to accept this election REGARDLESS of who wins. The mainstream press will […]
August 7, 2024 | Airbnb Houses Are About to Flood the Market
New players will make this housing bust one for the record books. The current housing bubble features three new players, all of whom are about to switch from “buy/hold” to “panic sell.” They are: Boomers forced by declining health and/or shrinking stock portfolios to sell their McMansions. Wall Street private equity “landlords” who gorged on […]
August 7, 2024 | Emergency Rate Cuts Never Work
COMMENT: Marty, it is always obvious why you were named Economist of the Decade, Hedge Fund Manager of the Year, and FX Analyst of the Year for the Swiss Peg break. As you said on the private blog; “Let’s see but it appears that we could have a bear trap forming with a plunge […]
August 7, 2024 | Luxury Condo Sells for 21 Percent Loss
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the average sale price for all property types in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dropped to $1.106 million in July. On a month-over-month basis, the price fell by 4.7% from June. On the supply side, new listings rose 18.5%, and the sales-to-new listings ratio was […]
August 6, 2024 | Americans Prepared for Lasting Inflation
Americans are preparing for a prolonged inflationary period, based on new data from the New York Fed. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans are still pessimistic about inflation waning, with no one now believing it is transitory. The median expectation is that inflation will remain at the 3% level […]
August 6, 2024 | Household Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q2
otal household debt outstanding in Q2 ticked up by $109 billion, or by 0.6%, from Q1 – the smallest percentage increase since Q2 2023, and the second smallest increase since Q1 2021 – to $17.8 trillion, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Fed today. Year-over-year, total household debt grew […]
August 6, 2024 | Canada’s Financial Hell Paved with Good Intentions
As interest rates fell from 1980 to 2020, the average Canadian home price increased 746% from $67k to $566k, while the median household income rose about half that rate (400%) from $21,252 in 1980 to $84,000 by 2020 (table courtesy of Nerd Wallet). The average Canadian home price rose from about 3x the median household income […]
August 5, 2024 | Americans Prepared for Lasting Inflation
Americans are preparing for a prolonged inflationary period, based on new data from the New York Fed. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans are still pessimistic about inflation waning, with no one now believing it is transitory. The median expectation is that inflation will remain at the 3% level in […]
August 4, 2024 | The Hunger Games: The Fed Version
I am just a poor boy Though my story’s seldom told I have squandered my resistance For a pocket full of mumbles Such are promises All lies and jests Still, a man hears what he wants to hear And disregards the rest… -Paul Simon, The Boxer, 1969 Let the wise hear and increase in learning, […]
August 4, 2024 | Everybody Knows
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows the war is over Everybody knows the good guys lost Leonard Cohen – Everybody Knows Having heard this Leonard Cohen classic on the radio a few days ago, the lyrics have been rattling around in my head as a perfect […]
August 4, 2024 | Will The US Go Into Civil War 2025-2026? Will 2024 Be the Last Election? What Does AI say?
Our computer model warns that we are headed into tremendous civil unrest because those behind the curtain are NOT about to let Trump thwart their agenda of World War III. I warned that they would attempt to assassinate Trump, for it was on the 13-year Assassination Cycle. The last non-Deep State assassination attempt was […]
August 4, 2024 | Time for a Holiday…
[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so be sure to check the home page regularly, especially if stocks go […]
August 3, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for August 3, 2024
With the NAZ down ~12% since the July 11 record highs, do we bounce or keep falling? The NAZ closed lower for four consecutive weeks and closed this week at 18500 (which may be an essential support level), the lowest close since May 14. Perspective: At the July 11 highs, the NAZ was up ~20X from […]