September 1, 2024 | Countdown To Crisis, Catastrophe and Collapse

“All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed, they must rely exclusively on force.” – George Orwell “The future’s becoming muddled. The lines of vision are narrowing. But now they’re desperate. All paths lead into darkness.” – Frank Herbert – Dune Trying to decipher the path ahead becomes more difficult […]

August 31, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for September 31, 2024

The bloom is off the AI rose; capital rotates to other sectors Wednesday’s NVDA quarterly report was strong overall but failed to meet investors’ high expectations; the share price closed the week near its lows, down ~15% from the record highs made in June. The robust gains from big-cap tech provided most of the gains for the […]

August 31, 2024 | Why Tulsi Gabbard Endorsed Trump

August 31, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 31st 2024

The Bottom Line Look for relatively quiet North American equity markets this week. Traders are partially on holidays after returning from the Labor Day holiday weekend. Corporate news is quiet prior to release of third quarter results starting in the second week in September . Economic focus is on Canadian and U.S. August employment reports […]

August 30, 2024 | A Massive Glut of Unsold Condos Will Ruin The Toronto Housing Market

A massive glut of condominium apartments in Toronto threatens to sink the housing market. Condominiums were gobbled up by aggressive, highly levered speculators as a way of participating in the housing boom with minimal capital outlay. But now those apartments are hanging over a re-sale market with very few buyers. Investor-owners are losing money every […]

August 30, 2024 | Disappointing Demand is Dominant Theme

One after another, consumer-driven sectors are warning of tumbling demand amid still inflated prices and the highest real interest rates in 17 years. Although mortgage rates have fallen year-to-date, auto and home sales have continued to slump, with buying conditions the worst in decades (U of Michigan Home buying conditions below since 2000, courtesy of […]

August 30, 2024 | 94 US Banks Burdened by Uninsured Deposits – Risk of Bank Runs

A new study by Florida Atlantic University believes that 94 separate US banks are facing a significant risk of bank runs. The at risk banks have all reported a 50% or higher ratio of uninsured deposits to total deposits. Basically, they simply do not have the hard currency to shell out in the event of […]

August 29, 2024 | Hunt: Economic Review and Outlook August 2024

In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on […]

August 29, 2024 | Recession Watch: Deep-Discount RVs, Worst-Ever Stock Market Breadth, Frozen Housing

Let’s start with the concept of “big toys.” These are things like boats, jet skis, and RVs that people (okay, guys) tend to buy after they’ve had a few good years and conclude that job security and rising pay are now guaranteed for life. Because this hubris peaks near the end of expansions, spiking demand […]

August 28, 2024 | Crude Oil Retreats More Than US$5/b As War Premium Shrinks. WTI Breach Of US$70/b Likely In September

The war premium for crude oil has shrunk over US$5/b (from US$80.16/b in early August to US$74.80/b at our last look today) as only Iran’s proxies have attacked Israel and the US/Qatar/Egypt continue to discuss with Hamas a ceasefire and release of the remaining hostages (both dead and alive). President Biden and his surrogates continue […]

August 28, 2024 | China Ramps up Exports to Offset Weakness at Home

As China’s real estate bubble continues to implode, the government has directed Chinese banks to shift lending from real estate to Chinese industry, including manufacturing firms. At the same time, 99% of publicly listed Chinese companies now disclose some form of government subsidy, according to the Kiel Institute, a German think tank. China is spending […]

August 28, 2024 | Make America Healthy Again

I had been pleading for RFK to join Trump’s team as Attorney General as it is the most powerful position in Washington, providing Kennedy absolute immunity, AND he can clear out the swamp. Kennedy joined Trump’s team but his position has not been announced. However, Kennedy said his main goal in joining Trump is to […]

August 27, 2024 | The Truth About The Democrat’s $5 Trillion Tax Increase

  The Democrats support always raising taxes that amount to robbing people with laws. They NEVER learn that Marxism has failed EVERY single time it has been tried. They do not give a damn about our country, our future, or retaining our culture. They are outright liars when it comes to claiming it is misinformation […]

August 27, 2024 | Fed Cuts in Response to Weakening Employment

Rosenberg Research President David Rosenberg joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss his economic models, what’s happening in today’s economy, and much more. Here is a direct video link.  The 21.3% increase in US unemployment since 2022 is a degree of change only seen during the past 12 recessions since 1948. But, sure, maybe this time […]

August 27, 2024 | Inflation Chronicles: The Aristocracy Decrees That Peasants Will Sleep In Parking Lots

I have a dog who wakes up with the sun and immediately wants a nice long hike. Over the years, he’s trained me to accept his schedule, so at the crack of dawn we drive to one of a dozen or so nearby trails that he counts as his territory. One of our regular hikes […]

August 27, 2024 | Is this the Peak?

    The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose to another record high in June. Is this the peak for US national home prices? Not yet – which is why I put the “Bull” back in the box on Page 10 of my July 2024 Timing Letter. Be patient folks.  The bear is coming.

August 26, 2024 | Just a Hunch

Happy Monday Morning! For an overly indebted Canadian household sector grappling with rising interest payments, there was a lot to be pleased with this week. Canada’s CPI inflation came in at a breezy 2.5% in July. The deceleration was broad-based and marked the seventh consecutive month of headline rates running within the central bank’s target […]

August 26, 2024 | Pavel Durov Arrested by France To Kill Telegram

  We are headed into 2032, and every day that passes brings another step closer to revealing what I have warned about: this last 8.6-year wave will become the most authoritarian as the government realizes it is losing control. The latest was to arrest Pavel Durov because he created Telegram, which is free speech, with […]

August 25, 2024 | Unemployment, Inflation and The Fed’s Choice

There was an historically large revision to the unemployment data this week, which was even worse than the headline when you dig into the actual numbers. On top of that, there is some “behind the numbers” data on inflation, which is typically not talked about, that will have a big impact on the Fed decision, […]

August 25, 2024 | Have the Democrats Reversed the American Dream?

  Before the evolution of the Industrial Revolution, Social Mobility truly did not exist. More often, one tended to follow in the footsteps of their family. Farmers remained on the farm just as those in the various skilled trades remained in those guilds. This tended to be true even from ancient times before Rome became […]

August 24, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for August 24, 2024

Powell says the time has come to begin cutting interest rates Markets were expecting Powell to announce that it was “time” to start cutting rates (to lessen the downside risks to employment – the other leg of the Fed’s dual mandate), but the “unequivocally dovish” tone of his Jackson Hole announcement surprised markets.   Small caps […]

August 24, 2024 | ‘Easy Money’ Boom to Bust

The same ‘easy money’ policies that enabled excessive spending and mal-investment in real estate fuelled a boom and bust now unfolding in the venture capital and start-up space, as well. This has broader implications for asset prices, lenders, investment, jobs and the economy at large. See, Start-up failures rise 60% as founders face hangover from the […]

August 24, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 24th 2024

The Bottom Line Responses to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments triggered significant buying in North American equity markets on Friday. According to Powell, “The time has come to adjust our restrictive monetary policy”. His comments implied that the FOMC likely will start to lower its Fed Fund Rate at its next meeting on […]

August 23, 2024 | RFK Endorses Trump & Will Join His Cabinet

  COMMENT: Congratulations. You are the only one who has been pushing this for months. What position will he take in Trump’s Cabinet? FK ANSWER: I want to thank everyone for all of their support. I may have been the first behind this issue. But this is not merely because I said so. RFK was only 6 […]