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December 4, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For December 3, 2022
Markets react to a “slowing” Fed Leading up to Powell’s scheduled Wednesday speech, some market participants were likely positioned for a re-appearance of “tough-guy” Powell – the man on a mission to bring down inflation and damn the consequences. But Powell sent those participants scrambling to reverse their positions when he said, “it makes sense to moderate the […]
November 26, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For November 26, 2022
The DJIA closed at a seven-month high this week The DJIA closed higher for seven of the last eight weeks. It rallied ~5,600 points (19%) from its two-year lows on October 13 and is now only ~7% below its January All-Time Highs. All of the stock indices had a terrific rally from the March 2020 Covid […]
November 20, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For November 19, 2022
The “too far, too fast” moves have stalled In several of my Notes over the past few months, I’ve made the point that traders have been hunting “Peak Fed Hawkishness” – because they believe that will the best time to “Buy The Dip.” I’ve also made the point that they’ve been hunting for that “magic moment” without success – because Jay […]
November 12, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For November 11, 2022
Lower-than-expected October CPI inflation inspired HUGE rallies in stocks, bonds and currencies Markets have been searching for “Peak Hawkishness” since June – without success, as Chairman Powell made clear in his press conference following the FOMC meeting last week. But – the downtick in various CPI metrics on Thursday caused markets to believe the Fed will “reduce the […]
November 6, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For November 5, 2022
Inter-market relationships I’m a Macro tourist: I constantly monitor intra-market and inter-market relationships and correlations. It’s an old habit, and it often leaves me more perplexed than enlightened, but sometimes I find clues that help me see a trading opportunity. I look at correlations as a trader, not an economist or statistician; in other words, […]
October 30, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 30, 2022
October 13, 2022, was a Key Turn Date A Key Turn Date occurs when several different markets reverse course on (or around) the same date. The fact that several different markets “pivot” simultaneously indicates that something significant has happened – for instance, there has been a significant “shift” in sentiment or a critical geopolitical event. On October 13, the US CPI report was […]
October 23, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 23, 2022
Markets may be turning I’m writing the TD Notes on Sunday afternoon this week. I left my desk last Thursday morning, flew to Calgary to attend Joseph Schachter’s fantastic annual energy conference (more on that below), and got home Sunday afternoon. The Notes will have to be shorter this week – I’ll comment on several […]
October 15, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 15, 2022
Will the Fed pause/pivot before or after “something breaks?” The Fed is determined to continue tightening monetary policy until inflation falls. Stocks and bonds have fallen sharply, and the US Dollar has soared as inflation has remained “hot” despite the Fed’s continued efforts. The market “knows” (and we assume so does the Fed) that “something will break” as a result of […]
October 8, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 8, 2022
WTI crude oil soared ~$17 (22%) from last week’s low to this week’s high/close Front-month WTI futures closed ~$76 on Monday, September 26 – the lowest level since the first week of January. The damage to the Nordstream pipelines was discovered that day. Since then, prices have rallied sharply and closed this week at ~$93.30. The […]
October 1, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 1, 2022
“The most important thing” for the financial markets the past few months, and especially for the last three weeks, has been the realization that the Fed is DETERMINED to get inflation down and “break the back” of future inflation expectations. Credit markets US bond yields YTD have had the steepest rise ever – with 2/3 of the move […]
September 24, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes for September 24, 2022
Is this as bad as it gets, or is the “worst” yet to come? In last week’s TD Notes, I declared, “Expectations of more Fed tightening is the “most important thing” for financial markets.” That was after risk assets took a swan dive following Tuesday’s CPI data. This week, the swan dive continued, especially after the […]
September 17, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For September 17, 2022
Expectations of more Fed tightening is the “most important thing” for financial markets Markets reacted dramatically to the “stronger than expected” CPI report Tuesday morning. The DJIA futures dropped ~800 points in five minutes and was down >1,650 points later in the day. Friday’s low was ~2,150 points below Tuesday’s high. It was the biggest weekly loss since the […]
September 10, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For September 9, 2022
Trading against sentiment extremes One of my favourite trading questions is, “How much is already in the price?” Market sentiment has recently become very negative, and with good reason; the “news” has been bad, and markets have priced in the bad news with higher interest rates, lower stocks and commodities and a US Dollar at 20-year highs. I think markets have […]
September 3, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For September 3, 2022
Demand destruction requires higher for longer. The DJI is down >2,000 points since Powell made it “perfectly clear” in his August 26 Jackson Hole speech that the Fed is determined to do “whatever it takes” to bring inflation back down to 2%, regardless of the combination of factors which caused it to rise substantially above the Fed’s target. The […]