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January 6, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 6, 2024
After closing higher for nine consecutive weeks and making new All-Time Highs, Nasdaq 100 futures took a “refreshing” pause to start the New Year The NAZ rallied ~60% in 2023, its best performance since the fabulous 1999 Dot.com days. (Veteran campaigners may remember that the NAZ rose an additional 30% by March 2000 but then […]
December 30, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 30, 2023
We’ve had a historic 2-month rally in stocks and bonds in anticipation of several interest rate cuts in 2024 due to falling inflation – what’s next? The leading stock indices (and many individual names) traded higher for nine consecutive weeks, with the DJIA and the NAZ 100 ending 2023 at All-Time Highs. The DJIA rallied ~5,450 points (~17%) from […]
December 23, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 23, 2023
DJIA and NAZ hit All-Time Highs after closing higher for eight consecutive weeks Who would have thought, back in October, with stock market sentiment crushed under the weight of “higher for longer” and the 10-year Treasury yielding more than 5% (a 16-year high) that eight weeks later, the venerable DJIA would have rallied over 5,300 points […]
December 16, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 16, 2023
Powell kicked the Everything Rally into Overdrive! Markets were expecting “some” pushback from Jay, “We’re a long way from neutral” Powell after a sizzling 6-week stock market rally, but he waved the white flag instead, and the Everything Rally ripped higher! The bullish rip took Dec 2024 SOFR futures to ~9630 at Thursday’s high, effectively pricing in […]
December 9, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 9, 2023
Gold soars to All-Time High, then falls below last week’s low On Sunday evening, New York time (Monday morning Asian time), February Comex gold soared ~$60 within the first hour of trade to an All-Time High of ~$2,152. By mid-day Monday in New York, it was down ~$115 from the overnight highs; at Friday’s lows, it […]
December 2, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 2, 2023
Stocks, bonds and gold soar; the US Dollar falls as markets anticipate Central Bank cuts The DJIA has rallied ~4,000 points (~12.5%) in five weeks and is only ~2% away from All-Time Highs. It is up ~26% from October 2022 lows. The Nasdaq 100 has rallied ~13% in five weeks and is only ~5% away from ATH. […]
November 25, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 25, 2023
A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest. Paul Simon, The Boxer Over the last four weeks, the DJIA is up ~3,000 points (~9%), the Nasdaq is up ~14%, and the Mag7 is up even more. The 30-year Treasury is up ~10 points from 16-year lows, and the US Dollar Index is […]
November 18, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 18, 2023
Soft CPI = stocks and bonds up, USD down The Tuesday morning CPI report was marginally softer than expected; the market took that as “confirmation” that the Fed is DONE – stocks and bonds surged higher, and the USD tumbled – its biggest down day since falling on the softer-than-expected CPI report in November 2022. The […]
November 11, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 11, 2023
Surging Megacap Tech shares power the Nasdaq 100 to the highest weekly close since July Three weeks ago, the NAZ closed at a 6-month low as long-term interest rates hit 16-year highs, but a reversal lower in interest rates last week ignited a buying frenzy across the stock market, with the NAZ closing this week ~10% above […]
November 4, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 4, 2023
Stocks and bonds soared this week, and the US Dollar fell as markets believe Central banks are “done” raising interest rates Bonds 30-year Treasury futures fell ~20% from the post-SVB highs in April to last week’s 16-year lows. (Yields rose from 3.55% to 5.10%.) The market turned higher last week and soared this week on a […]
October 28, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 28, 2023
The Nasdaq had its best-ever first-half gain this year (~45%) but peaked in July and fell ~12% to this week’s lows The Nasdaq’s “defining moment” was made on July 18 when MSFT’s market cap soared ~$100 billion in an hour on an AI announcement, taking the share price to All-Time Highs of ~$367. Within three days, […]
October 21, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 21, 2023
Weekly change: Gold up, bond yields up, crude oil up, stocks down, USD down Gold Gold rallied ~$185 from 8-month lows on October 6 to this Friday’s highs, with the front-month contract closing this week above $1980 for the first time since the mid-July Key Turn Date. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, […]
October 15, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 15, 2023
“This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.” Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in a statement accompanying the bank’s quarterly earnings news release. This edition of the TD Notes will be brief. After three days in Calgary attending Josef Schachter’s “Catch the Energy” conference, I returned to my desk Sunday […]
October 7, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 7, 2023
Was Friday a turning point? Bond prices collapsed to fresh 16-year lows immediately following Friday morning’s “stronger than expected” NFP report. The US Dollar Index surged higher, while S&P futures tumbled and appeared ready to make new 4-month lows. But ~30 minutes after the NFP report, markets reversed course, and by the end of the day, S&P futures […]
September 30, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 30, 2023
August/September: Bond yields, USD and Crude oil sharply higher, stocks and gold down The yield on the long bond soared from ~3.9% on the mid-July Key Turn Date to ~4.8% (a 16-year high) on Thursday. Bond prices fell as yields rose. The US Dollar Index rallied ~7% from the mid-July KTD, rising for 11 consecutive weeks. This […]
September 23, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 23, 2023
KING Dollar higher for ten consecutive weeks The US Dollar Index registered its highest weekly close in ten months, up ~6% from the mid-July Key Turn Date. The Euro (the Anti-Dollar) has closed lower for ten consecutive weeks, falling ~6% from its mid-July highs. The Yen has dropped ~7% from its mid-July highs and closed this week at 10-month lows […]
September 16, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 15, 2023
KING Dollar rises for NINE consecutive weeks The USDX hit a 15-month low in mid-July but has rallied >5% since then. (I’ve called mid-July a Key Turn Date as several macro markets reversed course then.) The USD looks attractive as the Eurozone and China/Asia are slowing. American “exceptionalism” draws capital. The Euro traded at a 17-month high in mid-July but […]
September 9, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 9, 2023
King Dollar: higher for eight consecutive weeks The US Dollar Index touched a 15-month low in mid-July (a Key Turn Date across several markets) and has rallied for eight consecutive weeks. The Euro reached a 17-month high in mid-July, then fell for eight consecutive weeks. The Yen had a counter-trend rally into mid-July but then made lower lows […]
September 2, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 2, 2023
The Fed is likely done raising rates in 2023 Markets were focused on US employment data during the last week of summer, and after the JOLTS, ADP and BLS reports, the chances of another rate increase from the Fed this year fell to ~30%. Since April, short-term and long-term interest rates have been trending higher in Canada […]
August 26, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 26, 2023
Short-term interest rates surged higher this week Two-year Treasury futures traded to a 23-year low, the 5-year hit a 16-year low, and the 10-year closed the week at a 16-year low, but the long and ultra-long bond futures closed a little higher on the week after hitting multi-year lows on Monday. June 2024 SOFR futures […]
August 19, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 19, 2023
A quick report this week – my Golf Club Championship demands my participation! Interest rates keep rising The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 16-year high of>4.3% this week. Short rates are at 20+year highs, 10-year reals touched 14-year highs, UK Gilts touched 25-year highs, and Canadian 10-year government bonds hit 13-year highs. A stronger-than-expected US economy, […]
August 12, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 12, 2023
Interest rates keep rising. The 1-year T-Bill yield is at 22-year highs Treasury yields are rising as governments issue more debt to “fund” the difference between income and expenses. People will buy US government debt, but at what price? Governments have discovered that voters like fiscal stimulus (expect it to continue) and don’t care about rising deficits […]
August 5, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 5, 2023
Stock market sentiment took another step away from “irrational exuberance” this week I wrote in the July 22 TDNotes: I’ve been skeptical of the “Magnificient Seven” rally for a few months, thinking that sentiment bordered on “irrational exuberance.” However, I respected the power of the rally and patiently waited for an opportunity to fade it. I thought the “$100 Billion in […]
July 29, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For July 29, 2023
It was Central Bank Week The FOMC met on Wednesday and raised 25 bps as expected, with markets now pricing a ~30% chance of another 25 bps at their September 19/20 meeting. Financial markets were essentially unchanged on the news. The ECB met on Thursday and raised 25 bps as expected but surprised markets by NOT forecasting […]
July 22, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For July 22, 2023
A turning point in sizzling tech stocks? On Tuesday, MSFT announced plans to invoice corporations for employees using Microsoft AI. Within an hour; the share price rose >$20 to new All-Time Highs, adding ~$100 Billion (~4%) in market cap. By Friday’s close, those gains had evaporated, leaving the weekly chart with an ominous shooting star candlestick pattern. […]