ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 2, 2024 | Investment Advice of the Ages
“Don’t take investment advice from anyone under the age of 50. They haven’t had their head in the cement mixer enough times.” ~ My Dad Dad was a builder/developer in San Diego for 55 years. He was a smart man.
September 21, 2024 | Why the Fed Cut Rates
The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points on Sept 18th. Why the Cut? It was NOT because the markets (stocks and real estate) have started to roll over and head south. They are both at record highs. Nor was it because the economy is in recession. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow […]
September 10, 2024 | Health & Fitness: All the Things That I Have Done
I believe that everyone, myself included, is responsible for everything in our lives – and that includes how healthy you are, how fit you are, and how you age. Everything thing you do – every thought you think – is within your control. So take control guys. Yup, I am living proof that if […]
September 4, 2024 | Rolex Watches: Mean Reversion in Action
The Rolex Market Index typically increases by about 4-5% per year. But from 2020 to March 2022, the index rose by an incredible 76%. Since then, however, the index has reversed course and has given up 2/3’s of those gains. How does this apply to housing prices? This same principal of “reversion to the […]
August 27, 2024 | Is this the Peak?
The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose to another record high in June. Is this the peak for US national home prices? Not yet – which is why I put the “Bull” back in the box on Page 10 of my July 2024 Timing Letter. Be patient folks. The bear is coming.
August 22, 2024 | Inflation in One Lesson
The high cost of living is the #1 financial problem for Americans today – and Milton Friedman’s explanation for inflation is probably close to the mark. In this 39 second video, Friedman claims that too much government spending and too much govt money creation is what causes inflation. “Consumers don’t produce inflation. Producers don’t produce […]
August 17, 2024 | $50K of ‘Value-Add’ For Only $8K
Remodeling your kitchen doesn’t have to cost you $50K (or more). Instead, you can do it for $8K – and the job will look EXCELLENT. Here’s how you can do it 1. Demo the existing counter tops and remove the cabinet doors and drawer fronts. Cost: $0.00 because you do it. 2. […]
August 2, 2024 | American’s #1 Financial Problem in One Chart
In April 2024, a record 41% of those surveyed claimed that the high cost of living/inflation was their #1 financial issue – up from the previous record highs of 35% in 2023 and 32% in 2022. At 14%, the high cost of owning or renting a home was the 2nd largest financial issue. Negative […]
July 29, 2024 | “Well Hello Mr. Coyote”
My two beagles and I were in a coastal canyon this morning, and a coyote started following us. A man has a duty to protect his wife and family, so I yelled to try to scare him away. That didn’t work. The coyote kept following us. So I tried Plan B I […]
July 23, 2024 | Early Sign of a Downturn in CA Home Prices
Everybody knows where we’ve been. Let’s see where we are going. History shows that extremely low housing affordability in CA tends to precede market downturns, as occurred in 1980, 1989, and as shown below, 2006. I see no reason why this time will be any different. But Fear Not, Fellow Investors In […]
May 21, 2024 | Saying No to Aging: My Own Story
We all get older – but that doesn’t mean we can’t put up a hell of a fight before we go down. As many of my Timing Letter readers know, staying healthy and fit – and slowing down the aging process – has always been my highest priority. The interesting thing is that […]
April 26, 2024 | The Nice Part about Getting Old
The nice part about getting old (I’ll be 77 in one week) is that you’ve experienced more than most people – and that includes real estate cycles. U.S. housing prices may be at record highs today – but as I continue to illustrate in my Timing Letters, a massive mean reversion is likely […]
March 31, 2024 | Good Time to Buy Gold? – Update
On Oct 17, 2023, when gold was priced at $1,831/ounce, I posted THIS In early March 2024, gold broke out to a new record high – and was priced at $2,232 on March 29th. So far, so good.
February 5, 2024 | Risk
Just because you can’t see something doesn’t mean it isn’t there. It pays to be paranoid.
December 29, 2023 | Here’s to Hitting Some Home Runs in 2024
Friends and Followers – Work hard and dream big. I hope that 2024 is the best year ever for you – and that many of your hits are home runs.
December 10, 2023 | Haves vs. Have-Nots in America
The U.S. is a country of extremes. Americans are the richest people in the developed world – but are also the poorest and most likely to go hungry. Data shows that only 10% of all Americans are able to beat inflation, taxation, and changing market conditions over time. Learning […]
November 3, 2023 | There is No Free Lunch
From a Ben Bernanke speech in 2011: “Perhaps the most important thing for people to understand about the federal budget is that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit; so, one way or the other, […]
October 17, 2023 | Good Time to Buy Gold?
For those of you who are on the hunt for opportunities beyond real estate, consider this: Managed money is back to a largish net short position in gold. The only other times managed money bet like this, gold did the following: Rallied 30% Rallied 32% Rallied 26%
October 13, 2023 | We Just Hit a $ BILLION Per Hour
U.S. National Debt is currently $33.5 TRILLION – and it’s rising by one BILLION dollars PER HOUR. At the current pace, the US would add $1 trillion in Federal debt every 45 days. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – which represents the value of the goods and services produced in the United […]
October 1, 2023 | Chart of the Decade
The monthly mortgage payment (P&I) for purchases of the median priced existing U.S. home (NAR) with a 20% down payment & average 30-year mortgage rate was $2,351 in August 2023 – up 140.6% since March 2020. The average hourly rate for all U.S. employees (BLS) has risen 21.7% since March 2020. Here in […]
September 21, 2023 | Update on Key Housing Indicator
[The above chart was presented in my Sept 2023 Timing Letter, as was the following transcript:] “Based on the 1-2-3 chart pattern shown in the chart, odds are high that more months’ supply of homes for sale is going to start hitting the market in the months (and maybe years) ahead.” […]
September 14, 2023 | Oil Hits $90!
Crude oil just hit $90/barrel – a new high for 2023 Oil prices are now up a massive 35% in just 3 months. Inflation always starts with energy.
August 31, 2023 | Good and Bad News
Let’s start with the bad news. Being that housing prices are high and affordability is ridiculously low, the pic is pretty much accurate – especially in California. The good news? History tells us that market conditions like this are temporary and won’t last forever. Housing prices will fall (and become affordable again) at the […]
August 14, 2023 | Where Mortgage Rates are Going
Since Jan 2023, mortgage rates show a chart pattern that is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.96% as of Aug 9th, 2023. Rates hit a 20-year high of 7.08% in Nov 2022. With the rate of inflation coming down, many real […]
August 4, 2023 | Food Inflation: 7.1% or 22.6% Per Year?
If you want to know how much food has gone up in the last 12 months, don’t ask the US government – ask people who shop for food everyday. Based on a survey of 8,000 US grocery shoppers nationwide, they said food at home prices rose by an estimated 22.6% from April 2022 to […]