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July 10, 2024 | US and China Crude Demand Sluggish – WTI Should Decline Below US$80/B in The Near Term
The US Presidential election continues to keep observers riding a roller coaster as they watch the Democrats agonize over keeping current President Biden or forcing him to resign due to his age and mental lapses. The ‘ring of power – the oval office’ then goes to his Vice-President Kamala Harris and she then gets to […]
July 5, 2024 | US Commercial Stocks Fell Sharply Last Week Lifting WTI Prices. Exports Rose To 4.4 MB/D.
Politics is front and center as the debate last week showed President Biden is not up to the job now and definitely not for a second term. Even members of his own party are disillusioned and are looking for someone to grab the baton at the August Democratic convention (August 19-22). Elections in the UK […]
June 27, 2024 | Total US Energy Stocks Rose 9.4 MB Last Week. WTI Crude Should Breach US$80/B in the Coming Days
Mixed economic data continues to sway markets from euphoria to concern as each data piece is scrutinized for signs of economic progress with declining inflation or signs of economic weakness and job layoffs with rising inflation. Canada got a surprise on the inflation front on Tuesday with the core May CPI (month over month) which […]
June 12, 2024 | Total US Stocks Grew 11.8 MB Last Week – Lower WTI Prices Ahead
Economic data in the US so far is not supportive of the Fed lowering their Fed Funds rate. Today’s CPI report was benign coming in at 3.4% for core, so the Fed is likely to continue its view that it wants to see a few months of slower economic growth and declining price pressure before […]
June 5, 2024 | WTI Crude Plunges Over US$4/B To US$73.10/B As OPEC Plans To Open The Spigots in Q4/24
OPEC’s announcement to gradually phase out the 2.2 Mb/d of quota cuts (starting October 1st) was not received well by the markets. In the details an agreement to give the UAE a 300 Kb/d addition to their quota, and continued cheating by Iraq and Nigeria resulted in a knockout blow to crude prices over the […]
May 30, 2024 | Total US Inventories Grew By 13.2 MB Last Week. Crude Prices Under Pressure
Bearish commentary from the Fed meeting notes and repetitive comments by Fed officials that they see no reason to lower interest rates in the near term has spooked markets. There have even been some officials saying that higher rates may be needed if inflation persists or goes higher. This is a big change from prior […]
May 22, 2024 | US Stock Build Adds To Downside Price Pressure – A Breach of US$75/B is Likely in the Near Term
Market bulls lifted the Dow over 40,000 last week but worries about interest rates and Treasury record refundings have pulled it back to 39,800, a still overvalued level. Everyone is waiting on the market’s Santa Claus ‘Nvidia’ to show steller new AI products and record profits to give the M7 bulls another reason to push […]
May 16, 2024 | WTI Breaches US$77/B on Weaker US Demand and Growing Inventories
Market bulls jumped all over the bond and stock markets on the tepid CPI report today. They have renewed the call for the Fed to cut rates at their September FOMC meeting. We suspect this is premature as PPI data was disconcerting and blew past forecasts. The CPI today came in at 3.6% year-over year, […]
May 8, 2024 | WTI Crude Oil Falls on Weaker US Demand and Rising Inventories
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Inflation pressure persists in the US leaving the Fed little room to lower rates at the coming meetings. Insurance, housing, food, electricity costs are all making consumers less able to afford what would have been considered basics. Going to McDonald’s, Starbucks, Pizza Hut or KFC with the family is […]
May 2, 2024 | Large US Crude Inventory Build Drags WTI Below US$80/B. There is an Inventory Excess Around The World, Even Lower Prices Expected in the Near Term
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Rising and pernicious US inflation now means that the US is unlikely to see a pivot and a cut in rates before the US elections. The Fed’s favourite inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding food and energy) increased 3.4% annual rate from a year ago […]
March 27, 2024 | US Crude Inventories Rise For Commercial Stocks and at Cushing. WTI Likely To Fall Below US$80/B Shortly
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Rising inflation pressure globally and decent economic growth are making it harder for the Fed to reduce interest rates. Investors have an expectation that the first of three 25 BP cuts will occur in June. With the rise in crude prices to US$82/b (nearly US$12/b over the last two […]
March 20, 2024 | Ukraine Bombing of Russian Refineries Adds US$2/B To War Premium Over The Last Week
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Today’s FOMC meeting and press conference by Chairman Powell thereafter, reiterated their plan to have three rate cuts of 25 BP each later this year. When, was left ambiguous. While there has been significant progress on the inflation front over the last year, recent CPI and PPI data are […]
March 14, 2024 | Ukraine Drone Attacks on Key Russian Refineries Boosts Crude Prices
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE The hope that US inflation has been tamed was rebuked with the CPI data released yesterday. US CPI month over month rose 0.4% or 4.8% annualized, more than double the Fed’s target rate and the second month of hot data. Wage growth came in at up 4.3% from the […]
March 7, 2024 | OPEC Contemplating Extending Its Quota Cuts To Year End Bouys Crude Prices
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE The Bank of Canada announced that they would keep their overnight rate at 5% as underlying inflation still persists. They also plan on keeping their quantitative tightening (QT) measures. The C$ improved 31 ticks to 73.88 on this announcement. Chairman Powell is before Congress today and tomorrow and markets […]
February 28, 2024 | OPEC Discussing Extending Its Production Cuts For One More Quarter Lifts Crude Prices Modestly
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Mixed economic data in the US continues with some data showing a slowing economy but others indicating inflation reversings to the upside. This stagflation pivot is not what the bond and stock market want to see. Forecasters are now indicating that the first cut would occur in June only […]
February 21, 2024 | Weak US Demand and Rising Commercial Stocks Likely To Cause Near Term Term Correction in WTI Price
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Mixed economic data in the US, with some indicators like manufacturing weakening are being offset by rising inflation after many months of declines. The Fed meeting notes out this week (from the last FOMC meeting) noted that they are concerned about lowering rates too quickly due to persistent price […]
February 15, 2024 | Crude Oil War Premium Expands US$3.50/B Over The Last Week as Houthis Continue Attacks in Red Sea
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE The surprisingly hot US CPI data yesterday drove the Dow down over 520 points to 38,273 and at its worst was down over 700 points, before a late afternoon recovery. The US Treasury 10-Year yield rose to 4.31%, up 44 BP in just over a week, which spooked investors […]