ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
November 21, 2024 | Crude Oil War Premium Expands As Ukraine Fires Longer Range US Missiles Into Russia
President elect Trump is moving quickly to nominate his cabinet full of loyalists that want to reign in the size and power of the perceived swamp in Washington. Many of his nominees are being readily accepted but one for Attorney General is getting widespread condemnation. He has nominated strong people for State, Defence, HHS, Interior […]
November 7, 2024 | US & China Energy Consumption Falls. We See WTI Declining Below US$68/b In The Coming Weeks
The Fed meeting ended today and the expected 25 BP cut was announced. I would keep an eye on the 10-year US Treasury now at 4.43%. It was down to 3.60% in mid-September. The high for 2024 has been 4.74% in April. If we exceed 4.74% then the Fed may be boxed in from further […]
October 24, 2024 | Large US Inventory Build And Weaker Consumption Pull WTI Down Over US$1/b On The Day.
With less than two weeks left until the US elections the US stock market is gyrating and looks heavy to me. It is fighting the uncertainty of two different visions for America going forward and US interest rates have been climbing on the fears of inflation reigniting and debt crowding (too much borrowing for the […]
October 17, 2024 | WTI Drops US$8/b Over Last Week As Israel Agrees Not To Attack Iran’s Nuclear Or Energy Facilities
Military tensions are picking up around the world and any miscalculation could expand the war fronts. It is not just the Middle East and Ukraine. China and North Korea are flexing their military muscles and worrying their neighbors. US pressure on Israel has succeeded in getting the IDF to agree not to attack Iran’s nuclear […]
October 9, 2024 | Crude War Premium Shrinks As Investors Focus On Weak China Demand Data
Turbulent markets in China headline each day the challenges China is having to get its economy back on track for sustainable growth. It needs to write-off debt challenged fixed assets, move from an export economy to a consumer economy and stabilize government owned businesses. In addition, its focus and financial support of EV’s and battery […]
October 2, 2024 | Iran’s Threat To Use It’s Largest And Most Lethal Ballistic Missiles To Attack Israel Lifted The Crude Oil War Premium by US$5/b
The first major issue to be concerned about is the Middle East: Israel’s multi-phased removal of the top military and leadership of the terrorist group Hezbollah has moved the northern Israeli war front to a more deadly phase. Starting with the killing of longtime Hezbollah leader, Nassan Nasrallah (believed to be a direct descendant of […]
September 26, 2024 | WTI Crude Down Over US$1/b On Concerns About China Demand
Weak US and China economic data continue to be the focus of investors. Central Banks in each country have lowered interest rates and in China’s case lowered banks reserve requirements so they can lend more and support companies in need of credit to keep from failing. The urgency of both Central Banks to stimulate their […]
September 19, 2024 | WTI Crude Bottom Is In Place But May Test Those Lows Over The Coming Weeks. BUY Energy Stocks When This Test Occurs
Fed day and then the Chairman’s press conference saw the announcement of an aggressive 50 BP decline in the Fed Funds rate to a range of 4.75 – 5.00%. This cut was hoped for by the markets so investors rejoiced and lifted the Dow by 125 points. We wonder if the Fed is seeing some […]
September 11, 2024 | WTI Crude Oil BUY Signal Triggered. We Sent Out New Energy Stock BUY Ideas Yesterday
Today is remembrance day for 9/11, a clear day of infamy in US history. US political leaders (Democratic and Republican) will attend memorials at the three sites that were attacked. Good news there for bipartisan action on behalf of the nation. Last night’s mudslinging Presidential debate was not a heartwarming showing for either candidate, but […]
September 5, 2024 | Weakening Consumption Of Energy Products In The US & China Drives WTI Below US$70/b. We Are Nearing An Important Price Bottom.
Weakening demand in China and the US for energy products accompanied by a shrinking of the Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran war premium has driven WTI down to as low as US$69.15/b today (last US$69.40/b). This is US$5/b below last week’s level and is nearing our bottom target of US$66-69/b. Once this occurs it would be the first of […]
August 28, 2024 | Crude Oil Retreats More Than US$5/b As War Premium Shrinks. WTI Breach Of US$70/b Likely In September
The war premium for crude oil has shrunk over US$5/b (from US$80.16/b in early August to US$74.80/b at our last look today) as only Iran’s proxies have attacked Israel and the US/Qatar/Egypt continue to discuss with Hamas a ceasefire and release of the remaining hostages (both dead and alive). President Biden and his surrogates continue […]
August 14, 2024 | Two Wars And Geopolitical Tensions Have Lifted The Crude Oil War Premium Over US$10/b.
A last ditch political effort led by the Biden Administration to get an interim ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel will take place tomorrow and Friday in both Dhoha and in Cairo. Israel and Hamas are not talking directly but the diplomats are scurrying between rooms to get an agreement that stops the fighting and […]
July 31, 2024 | Crude Oil Rises US$2/B After Israel Assassinates Two Terrorist Leaders
After a Hezbollah attack on a Druze village in the Golan of Israel that killed 12 children playing in a soccer field (total 30 casualties), Israel focused on retribution by targeting the Hezbollah leader (Faud Shukr) who ordered the Majdal Shams attack and killed him and associates in an air attack at his Beirut home. […]
July 25, 2024 | WTI Falls >US$4/b Over The Last Week To US$77.30/b On Weakening China Demand
The ending of President Biden’s candidacy for a second four year term has emboldened the Democrats that they could win the Presidency and end the worry of a clean sweep (Presidency, House and Senate) by the Trumpers. By endorsing Kamala Harris, Biden passes the torch to his VP and ensures that the campaign funds raised […]
July 17, 2024 | US Total Stocks Rose 11.1 MB Last Week -This Should Put Pressure on Crude Prices
The Republican National Convention is on this week and all of Trump’s former Presidential opponents are singing kumbaya and circling the wagons to get a fully united party to win the Presidency, the Senate and a large majority in the House. His surviving an assassination attempt last week has added to his messianic support. A […]
July 10, 2024 | US and China Crude Demand Sluggish – WTI Should Decline Below US$80/B in The Near Term
The US Presidential election continues to keep observers riding a roller coaster as they watch the Democrats agonize over keeping current President Biden or forcing him to resign due to his age and mental lapses. The ‘ring of power – the oval office’ then goes to his Vice-President Kamala Harris and she then gets to […]
July 5, 2024 | US Commercial Stocks Fell Sharply Last Week Lifting WTI Prices. Exports Rose To 4.4 MB/D.
Politics is front and center as the debate last week showed President Biden is not up to the job now and definitely not for a second term. Even members of his own party are disillusioned and are looking for someone to grab the baton at the August Democratic convention (August 19-22). Elections in the UK […]
June 27, 2024 | Total US Energy Stocks Rose 9.4 MB Last Week. WTI Crude Should Breach US$80/B in the Coming Days
Mixed economic data continues to sway markets from euphoria to concern as each data piece is scrutinized for signs of economic progress with declining inflation or signs of economic weakness and job layoffs with rising inflation. Canada got a surprise on the inflation front on Tuesday with the core May CPI (month over month) which […]
June 12, 2024 | Total US Stocks Grew 11.8 MB Last Week – Lower WTI Prices Ahead
Economic data in the US so far is not supportive of the Fed lowering their Fed Funds rate. Today’s CPI report was benign coming in at 3.4% for core, so the Fed is likely to continue its view that it wants to see a few months of slower economic growth and declining price pressure before […]
June 5, 2024 | WTI Crude Plunges Over US$4/B To US$73.10/B As OPEC Plans To Open The Spigots in Q4/24
OPEC’s announcement to gradually phase out the 2.2 Mb/d of quota cuts (starting October 1st) was not received well by the markets. In the details an agreement to give the UAE a 300 Kb/d addition to their quota, and continued cheating by Iraq and Nigeria resulted in a knockout blow to crude prices over the […]
May 30, 2024 | Total US Inventories Grew By 13.2 MB Last Week. Crude Prices Under Pressure
Bearish commentary from the Fed meeting notes and repetitive comments by Fed officials that they see no reason to lower interest rates in the near term has spooked markets. There have even been some officials saying that higher rates may be needed if inflation persists or goes higher. This is a big change from prior […]
May 22, 2024 | US Stock Build Adds To Downside Price Pressure – A Breach of US$75/B is Likely in the Near Term
Market bulls lifted the Dow over 40,000 last week but worries about interest rates and Treasury record refundings have pulled it back to 39,800, a still overvalued level. Everyone is waiting on the market’s Santa Claus ‘Nvidia’ to show steller new AI products and record profits to give the M7 bulls another reason to push […]
May 16, 2024 | WTI Breaches US$77/B on Weaker US Demand and Growing Inventories
Market bulls jumped all over the bond and stock markets on the tepid CPI report today. They have renewed the call for the Fed to cut rates at their September FOMC meeting. We suspect this is premature as PPI data was disconcerting and blew past forecasts. The CPI today came in at 3.6% year-over year, […]
May 8, 2024 | WTI Crude Oil Falls on Weaker US Demand and Rising Inventories
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Inflation pressure persists in the US leaving the Fed little room to lower rates at the coming meetings. Insurance, housing, food, electricity costs are all making consumers less able to afford what would have been considered basics. Going to McDonald’s, Starbucks, Pizza Hut or KFC with the family is […]
May 2, 2024 | Large US Crude Inventory Build Drags WTI Below US$80/B. There is an Inventory Excess Around The World, Even Lower Prices Expected in the Near Term
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Rising and pernicious US inflation now means that the US is unlikely to see a pivot and a cut in rates before the US elections. The Fed’s favourite inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding food and energy) increased 3.4% annual rate from a year ago […]