July 18, 2022 | China Property Developers Offering Cars and Pigs to Entice Buyers
As foreign investors and home buyers lose confidence in China’s property market, developers are offering cars and pigs to boost sales. WSJ examines ads and policies to see how the country’s real-estate turmoil could ripple out into the global economy. Here is a direct video link. As shown below via Bloomberg and The Daily Shot.com, Chinese […]
July 18, 2022 | Epic Silver Selloffs
I would certainly classify the current selloff in silver as being epic and I’m reminded of other past selloffs as being historic in nature. I lived (as a broker) through perhaps the most epic silver selloff of all, the price decline of early 1980, when the Hunt Brothers-inspired run to $50, quickly collapsed as trading […]
July 18, 2022 | Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Traffic of Prospective Buyers of New Houses Plunges, Homebuilders Cut Prices, Sentiment Dives
Homebuilders have struggled for well over a year with supply and labor shortages and ridiculously spiking costs. In addition, this year, the new holy-moly mortgage rates added to the woes, and unsold inventories surged to levels not seen since 2008, as sales fell. And homebuilder stocks have gotten hammered across the board, down year-to-date between […]
July 17, 2022 | Starbucks Flees Crime-Ridden Cities
People are less likely to splurge for their daily morning $6 coffee amid a looming recession, and Starbucks stock is down over 30% this year. However, another main problem facing Starbucks stores is crime. CEO Howard Schultz announced that the company is closing 16 stores with “many more” closures to come. While potential union busting […]
July 17, 2022 | DIY Remodeling Comes with Bragging Rights
Customers are seeing massive price increases from remodelers, and they are starting to push back. Instead of hitting the “pause” button – do the work yourself. I recently built these architectural trusses into my Master Bedroom ceiling. I did all the work myself – including the design. Cost of materials: $350.00 […]
July 17, 2022 | Silver Price Explosion
I can’t recall a time when all the stars, planets and moons have been as aligned as they are now for a sudden and shocking revolution in the price of silver. COMEX positioning sets the price of silver and it has turned profoundly bullish. I wholeheartedly believe there has to be a great reset in […]
July 17, 2022 | Forgotten Lessons
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” is a well-known quote that’s also incomplete. You can remember the past vividly and still have to repeat it. This happens when, for instance, powerful people forget (or ignore) important lessons that affect everyone. In politics, we can often limit the damage by voting […]
July 16, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For July 16, 2022
“Don’t fight the Fed,” they say, but what will the Fed do? The markets understand that the Fed is determined to cool inflation by raising interest rates another ~125bps between now and December. But then what? The forward markets see the Fed beginning to cut interest rates in early 2023, likely in response to recessionary […]
July 16, 2022 | Layoffs Compound Economic Downturn
Understanding the link between ultra-loose financial conditions over the past few years and the tech sector boom, jobs, housing, the stock market, and economic growth is key to anticipating the bust contagion. This video segment connects the dots well. Companies like Tesla, JP Morgan, and Zillow have announced layoffs in the last 30 Days. In […]
July 15, 2022 | Draghi Out – The Dominoes Fall
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced his resignation on Thursday after he fell out of favor with the Five Star Movement. Similar to Boris Johnson, once your own people turn their backs on you, it is time to bow out. “I want to announce that this evening I will present my resignation to the President […]
July 15, 2022 | The Bank of Canada Shocks with 100 Basis Points Increase in Rates
The Bank of Canada shocked financial markets with a surprise increase of 100 basis points in the official interest rate. Will this be enough to stop inflation? Here’s an excerpt from the July 13, 2022 announcement: “With the economy clearly in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist […]
July 15, 2022 | Cryptomaina Morphs to Predictable Meltdown
The crypto space has seen one of history’s most giant and iconic financial bubbles. The circle of leverage on leverage, interconnectedness and mental illness are all classic, as are the predictable aftermath of missing and frozen funds with fleeing founders and a daisy bankruptcy chain. Cryptocurrency prices have crashed in the last few months as […]
July 14, 2022 | Rate Hikes Compounding Pain for Bloated Real Estate
The Bank of Canada hiked base rates a whole percentage point yesterday–its most significant one-time increase since 1998–now at 2.5% from .25% four months ago in March. Futures are pricing in a 84% chance that the US Fed will follow suit with its own 1% increase at its next policy meeting on July 27. These […]
July 14, 2022 | Draghi Out – The Dominos Fall
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced his resignation on Thursday after he fell out of favor with the Five Star Movement. Similar to Boris Johnson, once your own people turn their backs on you, it is time to bow out. “I want to announce that this evening I will present my resignation to the President […]
July 13, 2022 | Freedom Convoy Organizer Tamara Lich’s Bail Revoked
Tamara Lich was one of the Canadian Freedom Convoy organizers. She made a cryptic video in February stating that the Canadian government hunting her down. Lich asked protestors to remain peaceful and said that she knew “this too shall pass.” It has not. Lich remains jailed in Ottawa since defying the government by demanding an end […]
July 13, 2022 | “Things Are Not Normal Right Now”: Bank of Canada Hikes by Monster 100 Basis Points, Hits Mortgages. So Might the Fed after US CPI Fiasco
“To front-load the path to higher interest rates,” the Bank of Canada today jacked up its main rate by a 100 basis points to 2.5%, the fourth rate hike in a row, and the biggest rate hike since 1998, which made the BoC the first of the G-7 central banks to raise by 100 basis […]
July 13, 2022 | The Demographic Dilemma
This segment explains the slowing economic impact of an aging population. Immigration is helpful, to be sure, but realistically, several hundred thousand per year of newcomers cannot offset the growth depressing weight exerted by aging millions in the existing population. Demographics have a huge role to play in the U.S. economy. This video will explain […]
July 12, 2022 | World Bank: The Poor Will Suffer From Carbon Taxes
The World Economic Forum is praising Denmark for implementing the world’s strictest carbon tax laws. Companies will soon be forced to pay $159 for every tonne of CO2 emitted, marking an additional $53 per tonne. The government claims this will cut CO2 levels by 3.7 million tonnes in just one year. “This incentivizes companies to […]
July 12, 2022 | Relative Safety and Liquidity Top Priority in 2022
As Canadian Rogers customers experienced a national service outage last Friday, the loss of phone, internet, and some banking services underscored the limitations of virtual systems and currencies when power or internet access becomes unavailable. Having some physical cash in the currency we pay our bills has always been a good idea. Meanwhile, cryptos are […]
July 11, 2022 | The Perfect (and Only) Solution
A new article by Reuters concerning this year’s default in nickel on the London Metals Exchange help me to crystalize some new thoughts on the recent dramatic collapse in commodity prices of all types, certainly including silver and gold. I would describe my new thoughts as being fully in line with all the major themes […]
July 11, 2022 | Sri Lanka’s Economy Completely Collapsed
Protestors swarmed President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s palace in Sri Lanka, forcing him to flee and step down. The entire government in Sri Lanka will be restructured. When the people are hungry, no amount of rules and restrictions will prevent them from protesting. Sri Lanka ran out of food and ran out of fuel to cook whatever […]
July 11, 2022 | Pandemic Consumption Boom Now in Reverse
EPB macro has a knack for distilling complex macro forces into key trends. This video focuses on US consumption, but the trends are similar in Canada and other major economies. The housing and durable goods sectors are the cyclical engines of economic growth. When these sectors are hot, the whole economy booms. But what happens […]
July 10, 2022 | Another 3%, Then Kiss the Rally Goodbye
How high is the bear rally begun in mid-June likely to go before buyers run out of gas? The 4029.75 target shown in the chart is a logical answer, even if the hubris of billboarding it here could queer its voodoo magic. A run-up to 4029 would represent a 3.1% gain over Friday’s close and […]
July 10, 2022 | The Disease Cycle
QUESTION: Marty, You have forecasted that your disease model turned up here in 2022. COVID was exploited, but it was no worse than the flu. Then there is monkeypox. But the latest is the much more lethal Marburg virus in Africa. Is this going to be the real one? DC ANSWER: The model did […]
July 10, 2022 | John Bull and Two Percent
The economics profession has long had a vigorous academic argument over “natural” interest rates. What would rates be if we could somehow remove all the subjective actors—central banks, commercial lenders, government agencies—that conspire to set them? What would nature do if we left it alone? It’s an academic argument because, in the real world, we […]