ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
June 19, 2023 | NATO – The Greatest Threat to Europe & the World
We have all seen those videos of Killer Whales playing with their prey before killing it. This is sadly what is taking place with NATO. All these people do is promote war. Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine. It was indeed a special operation to secure the Donbas. NATO knows that but constantly pretends […]
June 19, 2023 | Scarce and Expensive Funding Brings Financial Sobriety
There’s a timeless adage that when money is cheap and easy, many people do dumb things with it. When money was free and easy (2010 through 2022), dumb things were all the rage. In 2021, $346 billion was handed out to startups by US venture capital firms alone, averaging more than $86 billion a […]
June 19, 2023 | Credit Slump
Happy Monday Morning! As mentioned in last weeks note, the great big housing boom is over. You see housing booms need credit, lots of it, to keep the wheels churning. The single largest driver of home prices over the past few years has been cheap and abundant credit. When money is basically free you tend to […]
June 18, 2023 | Accessory Dwelling Units Grow in Popularity
The push for the 15-minute city is underway. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) are becoming increasingly popular as cities across the globe are rezoning neighborhoods to permit additional properties to be built on the same land as existing homes. Some are now referring to these units as “backyard homes” as they are becoming a normalized part […]
June 18, 2023 | They’re Coming For Your Bank Account
Two trends are converging to end the era of local bank accounts: Central banks are conspiring to force us out of traditional savings and checking accounts and into central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Deposits are now fleeing local and regional banks because an inverted yield curve makes it impossible for those banks to pay competitive […]
June 18, 2023 | Frustrated Bear? Temporary Relief Is on the Way
When will the rampaging bull run out of steam? A good question, considering how Wall Street has been flouting a slew of good reasons for the broad averages to be at multiyear lows rather than revving up for a shot at new record highs. Two destructive juggernauts in particular are bearing down on the economy […]
June 18, 2023 | A Skip, Not a Stop
A year ago, the US Consumer Price Index was rising at an almost 9% annual rate. The Federal Reserve was trying to change that trend with tighter policy. But it wasn’t just the Fed. All of us—businesses, consumers, everyone—responded to the pain. Good news: Our collective decisions seem to have had the desired effect. Annual […]
June 17, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For June 17, 2023
Central banks are determined to get inflation down The Fed and the ECB reminded markets again this week that they are determined to slow inflation, echoing recent statements from the BoE, the BoC and the RBA. The “explicit” message is that rates will stay higher for longer. The underlying rationale for current central bank policies is that rising inflation […]
June 17, 2023 | Biden – Admits He is a Puppet
COMMENT: You are just anti-Democrat and always against Biden. WU REPLY: Sorry, you are so biased you cannot look objectively at anything. When Biden utters the phrase “I’m deviating from the script, and I going to get in trouble” don’t you understand that someone is scolding him if he speaks his own mind? I’m sorry. That is irrefutable evidence […]
June 17, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 17th 2023
The Bottom Line Changes in currencies are having an important impact on equity and commodity prices. The U.S. Dollar Index and its related Exchange Traded Note (Symbol: UUP) moved significantly lower following news on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve that it plans to maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 5.00%-5.25% for now. In response, world […]
June 16, 2023 | Espionage Act & Abuse of Power
Many people have written in and asked how can Trump be charged under the Espionage Act. There is probably no other Act that has been so abused than this statute. It has been responsible for witch hunts and the deliberate execution of people the prosecutors knew were innocent. This Act has silenced people, been used to […]
June 16, 2023 | The Fed Remains Committed To Fighting Inflation
The Federal Reserve delivered a “hawkish pause” this week. The Fed funds rate was held steady, as the Fed continued to tighten monetary policy and suggested that further rate hikes are inevitable. Will the Fed stay the course until inflation is at its 2 percent target? The official statement says that the Fed is committed to a […]
June 15, 2023 | Biden Wannabe Dictator? No Way.
Ep. 4 Wannabe Dictator pic.twitter.com/MDcs5g0gxB — Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) June 15, 2023
June 15, 2023 | How You Store It, Part 1: Gold In Hand
Gold bugs have a saying: “If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it.” This is emphatically true. Our banks, brokers, and crypto wallets can be looted by hackers or rapacious governments, or they can simply go dark during a power outage, cyberattack, or bank holiday. So the only wealth we truly own is what […]
June 15, 2023 | “Skip”, QT and High For Longer–Not Bullish
A world of bullish commentators asserts that Fed pauses are positive, even though the worst economic and stock market downturns have always come after the Federal Reserve stops tightening. After ten consecutive rate increases and the sharpest rate of change since 1980–yesterday, Fed Chair Powell announced a “skip” with ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) and possibly […]
June 14, 2023 | Powell on the New Hawkishness in the Dot Plot and on Inflation: “We See that it Tells Us that We Need to Do More”
Renewed hawkish sentiments are building up at the Fed for the second half this year. That’s what we saw today. While the Fed kept rates steady today “to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” the median projection in the FOMC’s infamous “dot plot” today calls for two more rate hikes this year, […]
June 14, 2023 | So What Comes Between Now & 2032?
QUESTION: Dear Sir, With regard to your recent blog post – [ https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/word-of-warning-they-cant-put-trump-in-prison-but-they-can-you-for-protesting/ ]… … you included the ECM chart depicting the decline and fall of the United States. You have an encyclopedic understanding of the cyclical rise and fall of empires. Seeing as how the USA presently constitutes a veritable empire in most respects, are […]
June 14, 2023 | Lagging Shelter Costs Mask Magnitude of Disinflation Unfolding
Shelter costs account for a whopping one-third of the US consumer price index (CPI). Ex-shelter, the other two-thirds of CPI components deflated 0.1% month over month in May and were a tame +2.1% year-over-year (close to the official 2% CPI target). Higher home and rent prices were significant factors in spiking inflation between 2020 and […]
June 13, 2023 | Putin Pleas for Peace
The vilification of Putin has been extremely successful, so much so that no one is listening to his words. The Russian leader recently spoke of conflict resolution. That is not something a warmonger hellbent on conquering nations would discuss. And yet, Putin seems to be the only world leader discussing the potential of resolving the […]
June 13, 2023 | Disinflation Offers Cause For Pause
May’s US CPI at 4%–the lowest since March 2021–has increased the prospects of a Fed pause tomorrow; a July hike remains possible. But as I’ve pointed out for months, pauses are not bullish; historically, they’ve preceded the steepest part of economic and market downturns. The good news for consumers (but not corporate profits) is that recessions […]
June 12, 2023 | The Rule of Law – Trump is Finish?
QUESTION: Marty; This seems that the onslaught against Trump is a desperate attempt fearing that he would stop the war and reverse climate change. I have been reading you for years. You have great sources but also a great insight into what is happening in this corrupt world. I used to question your warnings that […]
June 12, 2023 | Full Cycle Bearings
The S&P 500 is up 11% YTD (below in brown); the Nasdaq nearly 33%; and the TSX is +2.5%. Under the hood, a 53% year-to-date average gain for the seven most expensive US tech companies has done the lifting (in green below since December 2022), while the other 493 S&P 500 companies (in orange) have […]
June 12, 2023 | The Firm Grip of Tiff Macklem
Happy Monday Morning! The Scotia guy was right, and the Bank of Canada delivered with another rate hike. It was only 25bps but the signal sent shockwaves through the bond market. It’s incredibly rare for a central bank to raise rates, pause, and then start hiking again. Pauses are almost always met with inevitable rate […]
June 11, 2023 | The True Story of Hyperinflation
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, could you please explain what happens in technical terms from a capital flow perspective, when confidence is lost and hyperinflation starts to begin? For example Turkey. When Erdogan was elected i think you wrote that ever since the lira started dropping. So confidence in politics is key. Do you think one […]
June 11, 2023 | How Wall Street Thrives on Meaningless Data
The Biden Administration can count on Wall Street to celebrate meaningless economic data and bogus GDP growth with steep rallies, even as the visible economy continues to implode. It will become increasingly difficult to ignore signs of impending collapse, however, as anyone who lives in San Francisco could tell you. The city’s growing wretchedness is […]