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September 11, 2024 | WTI Crude Oil BUY Signal Triggered. We Sent Out New Energy Stock BUY Ideas Yesterday
Today is remembrance day for 9/11, a clear day of infamy in US history. US political leaders (Democratic and Republican) will attend memorials at the three sites that were attacked. Good news there for bipartisan action on behalf of the nation. Last night’s mudslinging Presidential debate was not a heartwarming showing for either candidate, but […]
September 11, 2024 | Small Businesses Warn of Weak Outlook
The outlook for small business earnings has been contracting since 2019, retreating below the pandemic bottom in August, with no turnaround yet. The glaring outperformance of S&P 500 operating earnings (in light blue below) above small business earnings since 2023 (dark blue below since 1986) looks unsustainable even as a bullish consensus forecast continued divergence […]
September 11, 2024 | Kamala’s Phycological Warfare & Eating Cats & Dogs
COMMENT #3: Thank you for your interesting feedback on the debate; I was also very surprised at how well Kamala performed. She appeared calm and collected. Trump, on the contrary, did not come across as a resolute winner. I do not understand why he had to mention things such as immigrants feeding on […]
September 11, 2024 | The Florida State Sunshine Bank: How a State-Owned Bank Can Protect Free Speech
Fifteen years have passed since the Occupy Wall Street movement focused attention on the inequities and hazards of large Wall Street banks, particularly those risky banks with trillions of dollars in derivatives on their books. “Move your money” was the obvious response, but what could local governments do? Their bank accounts were too large for […]
September 11, 2024 | Chart Alert: Double Top Resistance Signals Potential for Sharp Decline
This is an important chart! The S&P chart reveals two critical outside reversal weeks down from the 5,700 level—the first ending July 19th and the second just last week, on September 6th. These consecutive reversals in such a short time frame have created a powerful double top resistance. After the July 19th reversal, we saw a retracement […]
September 10, 2024 | Matt Taibbi: Why Censorship Is Suddenly Fashionable
Matt Taibbi, superstar reporter who recently turned on his MSM former bosses, just published a cogent explanation for why it’s now trendy to favor the arrest of free-speech social media execs like Elon Musk and Telegram’s Pavel Durov. If you’d prefer to listen rather than read, scroll down to the audio version. Liberalism Removes its Mask Upper-class America […]
September 10, 2024 | Health & Fitness: All the Things That I Have Done
I believe that everyone, myself included, is responsible for everything in our lives – and that includes how healthy you are, how fit you are, and how you age. Everything thing you do – every thought you think – is within your control. So take control guys. Yup, I am living proof that if […]
September 9, 2024 | Stagflation Begins
Nine of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported a decline in economic activity in August, up five districts from the July Beige Book report. Our system has warned that we are entering a period of stagflation, where inflation remains high but GDP declines. Now, the Fed is reporting that two-thirds of the US economy is […]
September 9, 2024 | From the Archives: Martin Armstrong (Correctly) Predicts Chaos
Originally published on August 9, 2023, this post featured some extreme predictions from forecaster Martin Armstrong — many of which seem to be coming true. So, as we blunder into WW III while running one of the most bizarre and least trustworthy elections in American history, revisiting some of Armstrong’s thoughts seems appropriate. People We […]
September 9, 2024 | Jobs, Not Rates
Happy Monday Morning! The Bank of Canada slashed rates again, the third time in this rate cutting cycle, and more cuts are coming. Markets are pricing in another 50bps of rate cuts by year end. Will this be enough to resuscitate the housing market back to life? The Real Estate industry certainly wants to belive […]
September 9, 2024 | What’s Your Plan?
Last week, the two-year US Treasury bond yield (3.654%) closed below the ten-year yield (3.716%), making for a +.062% spread and the first upward-sloping curve for these yields since July 2022. The re-steepening of Treasury yield spreads after months of inversion has historically proven to be a reliable warning of economic contraction, accelerating unemployment, and […]
September 8, 2024 | The Time Has Come
I remember traveling as a young boy on long trips and asking my parents, “Are we there yet?” I was later punished for this annoying behavior by having my own children ask me the same question over and over. On a national scale, we have been asking the same of the Fed. Now I think […]
September 8, 2024 | Telegram Forced to Surrender
French authorities arrested Telegram CEO Pavel Durov last month for permitting encrypted messaging on his app that could not be accessed by governments. France claimed that Durov was permitting illegal activities to occur on Telegram. Public safety is always the ruse they employ to remove our freedoms. Unfortunately, Telegram has been forced to surrender and […]
September 8, 2024 | Health Prepping, Part 5: Red Light Therapy
Winter is coming, which means many things depending on where you are and whether or not you like to ski. But one certainty is that millions of people in northern latitudes will get way less sunshine for five or so months. And that’s apparently bad for everything from aging to eyesight to arthritis. One solution […]
September 8, 2024 | Our #1 Bellwether Is at Cliff’s Edge
I continue to believe the bull market’s fate can be divined simply by paying close attention to price action in Microsoft shares. The company is not only the second-largest in the world by capitalization, slightly behind Apple; it is also the most important. That’s because its huge stream of revenues is all but impervious to […]
September 7, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for September 7, 2024
The S&P fell over 4% this week, its worst weekly performance in 18 months The leading American stock indices fell every day this week, with the S&P giving up ~50% of the gains made during the rally off the August 5 lows. The weekly S&P chart shows a classic bearish “double-top with lower 2nd high” pattern. […]
September 7, 2024 | NY Judge Forced to Postpone Trump’s Case Until After the Election
The latest video surfacing from a New York Federal Prosecutor’s office says what the entire world knows: that Bragg’s case is BS and that he has brought this case to climb the ladder politically. This is what prosecutors do. Since Guiliani prosecuted John Gotti and became Mayor, the same took place with Christi in […]
September 7, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday, September 7th 2024
The Bottom Line Brutal technical action by world equity markets last week! Equity markets are following their historic pattern of moving lower in the month of September. Offsetting was a drop in bond yields that triggered strength in bond prices. The price of the long term Treasury Bonds iShares popped to a 15 month high.
September 6, 2024 | A Weak U.S. Jobs Report
A weakening trend for the economy in the U.S. was confirmed on Friday. A recession is likely, although the official notification of recession will not come until 2025. The Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates later in September after declaring victory in the battle against inflation. We seldom get definitive clues regarding the […]
September 6, 2024 | The Jobs Number & Russia
The U.S. economy added fewer-than-expected new jobs last month because most economists still refuse to comprehend that there is such a thing as the business cycle. Here we have the Economic Confidence Model I explained, which I discovered while researching at the Firestone Library at Princeton University. That is NOT included in Socrates, in which I merely taught Socrates […]
September 5, 2024 | Goldman Sachs Predicts Stronger Economy Under Harris
Goldman Sachs, or Government Sachs as they are known in the industry, has bet on the establishment candidate. The person who has already spent four years in the White House will somehow repair the damage they caused to the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs, who strongly believes America should stay on the same losing […]
September 5, 2024 | Gold Stocks and Great Financial Bubbles Just Early into a Multi-Year Bull Market At Times Outperforming the S&P And With a World-Scale Discovery: Fabulous Action
A Great Financial Bubble is a very exciting event for everyone from direct participants to looky-loos, including an enraptured media. Generated by human action with far too many participants thinking the Bubble is unique and enduring. With five previous examples, gold’s real price weakened a little as the Bubble climaxed. A page of charts follow.
September 5, 2024 | Weakening Consumption Of Energy Products In The US & China Drives WTI Below US$70/b. We Are Nearing An Important Price Bottom.
Weakening demand in China and the US for energy products accompanied by a shrinking of the Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran war premium has driven WTI down to as low as US$69.15/b today (last US$69.40/b). This is US$5/b below last week’s level and is nearing our bottom target of US$66-69/b. Once this occurs it would be the first of […]
September 4, 2024 | Will Rate Cuts Help Canada?
The Bank of Canada voted to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%, marking the third consecutive rate cut. Inflation has allegedly slowed to 2.5% as of July, and Governor Tiff Macklem said that was reason enough to drop rates to attract investment. “If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with our July forecast, […]
September 4, 2024 | Rolex Watches: Mean Reversion in Action
The Rolex Market Index typically increases by about 4-5% per year. But from 2020 to March 2022, the index rose by an incredible 76%. Since then, however, the index has reversed course and has given up 2/3’s of those gains. How does this apply to housing prices? This same principal of “reversion to the […]