ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 26, 2022 | The Fed: Cold Shower on the Way
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a hawkish speech today about how the Fed was going to do whatever it takes to get inflation back to 2%. How will this change in Fed monetary policy impact housing prices? If the Fed keeps its word in its commitment to bring inflation down to 2% (it’s 8.5% now), the […]
August 26, 2022 | Green Hydrogen is a Great New Opportunity for Newfoundland and Canada
Germany wants Canada to become a world leader in the production of hydrogen. With a visit from a star-studded delegation from Germany, Newfoundland gains credibility as a potential new centre for clean hydrogen. The delegation included German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, the Economy Minister Robert Habeck as well as the CEOs of Volkswagen, Bayer, Uniper (spin-off […]
August 26, 2022 | Rosenberg: Rate Hikes Likely to End Sooner Than Markets Think
David Rosenberg, founder of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how rate hikes will end sooner than markets think. Here is a direct video link.
August 25, 2022 | Housing Has Led The Deepest Economic Contractions Historically
Some 65%+ of households in Canada and the US own real estate. While the most affluent 10% own 89% of the stock market (in some form), the bottom 90% own 55% of all real estate. Being the lion’s share of household net worth, what happens in the housing sector is the most significant driver of […]
August 25, 2022 | “OMG. My Rent Just Went Up 10%”
You: OMG. My rent just went up 10%. Econ PhD at the Fed: Yes, but when adjusted for 10% inflation, your rent didn’t go up at all. You: Are you nuts? What is wrong with you? Econ PhD at the Fed: I went directly into government work after spending 15 years […]
August 25, 2022 | The World According to Schwab?
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, First, thank you for all the wonderful work you do. I have been following your blog for many years and am always amazed at your insight and historical knowledge. I had a question regarding your assertion that the WEF/ Globalists will not win. I am assuming you mean that their vision […]
August 24, 2022 | Coinbase Crackdown
Comment: I use Coinbase to hold some crypto. They sent me an email saying that my account that I had for years would be limited to withdrawals only if I do not give them updated government ID and download the latest version of the application. I use this on my PC and do not have the […]
August 24, 2022 | The Collapse of Bullying Authoritarians: Leaders and Regimes
It seems that a severe financial contraction could materially reduce China and Russia’s totalitarian ambition. And as the urge for political reform is being threatened, loss of funding for deliberate mayhem could be in the “nick of time”. As they occurred in the senior economy, there has been three great experiments in authoritarian government that […]
August 23, 2022 | The Solution
August 23, 2022 | Why Silver Went down When It Should Have Gone Up
Two weeks ago, it looked to me like silver was about to take off, following months of sharp price declines, yet we experienced the worst selloff in a couple of years. Most puzzling was the cause of the sharp price declines. It didn’t appear to reside in COMEX futures positioning. It was something else entirely. […]
August 23, 2022 | Epic Auto Bust Cycle Now Unfolding
After housing, the auto sector is the next major driver of the consumer-driven economy. Since most buyers in both sectors are heavily financed, demand and prices tend to expand and contract with the credit cycle. From 2020 through 2021, a confluence of ‘easy money’ factors enabled demand to overwhelm supply and drive up auto prices. […]
August 23, 2022 | Housing and Soft Landings
Inflation has likely peaked from a rate of change perspective, dropping to 7.6% year-over-year in July, down from 8.1% in June. However, we are far from out of the woods. What’s interesting here are the comments from Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, immediately following the release. It’s not often you see the Bank of […]
August 23, 2022 | Sales of New Houses Collapse (in the West by 50%!) Inventories & Supply Spike to High Heaven, Worst since Peak of Housing Bust 1
The plunge in home sales is just stunning. Sales of new single-family houses collapsed by 12.6% in July from the already beaten-down levels in June, and by nearly 30% from July last year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000 houses, the lowest since January 2016, and well below the lockdown lows, according to […]
August 22, 2022 | The Coming Civil War
COMMENT: There has been and is increasing talk in all media of a coming ‘civil war’. Your article ‘Bidenomics & Vilification of Trump’ well explains the intentional polarization of the public and clearly states this will only end very badly. The CW of 1861 Blue vs Grey, North vs South was a war of geography […]
August 21, 2022 | Wealth Lessons from History
What you see is the normal order of nature – and this distribution has withstood the test of time. You will get a similar result with 10 baseball players, 10 race horses, or 10 real estate investors. The median salary of a MLB player was $1.15 million in 2021 – yet Manny […]
August 21, 2022 | Recession? What We Call It Is Irrelevant…
Call it a recession or anything else you prefer, but the bottom line is that the prosperity of decades past is not coming back. Thinking expansively about the economy is no longer part of the American mindset, since, as should be perfectly clear to everyone by now, the Fed’s epic, easy-credit hoax can do little […]
August 21, 2022 | Fading Smile of a Dying Empire
“All that is human must retrograde if it does not advance.” – Edward Gibbon “Woe, destruction, ruin, and decay; the worst is death and death will have his day.” – William Shakespeare, Richard II We moved to our corner of Montgomery County, Pennsylvania twenty-seven years ago. We raised our three boys here. We spent hundreds of hours […]
August 21, 2022 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest on the CBC Weekend Business Panel, discussing inflation, consumer stress readings, Kmart pop-ups in the Bay and the move toward hybrid work models. Here is a direct video link.
August 20, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For August 20, 2022
Will markets get “back to business” with a BANG after Labor Day, Sept 5th? We are in the “silly summer season,” and the “adults” are away. Trading volumes are light, but my veteran trader’s intuition tells me that markets may get “back to business” with a BANG once we get past Labor Day. September will bring “winter” into focus – especially concerning soaring […]
August 19, 2022 | Warren Buffett Loses His Magic Touch
The massive conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, run by the famed investor Warren Buffett, reported a large loss in the second quarter. Berkshire lost money because of accounting rules that require that losses on securities that are held must be recorded in earnings. Has Warren Buffett lost his magic touch? Source: Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett is […]
August 18, 2022 | A Tale of Two Housing Markets
Home price volatility is significantly greater in the California housing market when compared to the U.S. housing market. There is more upside potential during the booms – along with more downside risk during the busts.
August 18, 2022 | The Short Position in SLV
Having mentioned the sharp recent increase in the short position on SLV, the big silver ETF, in my last two missives to subscribers, I thought it proper to expand on the matter. As always, this is not a suggestion to buy, sell or hold shares of SLV and in the interest of full disclosure, I […]
August 18, 2022 | Rapid Rate Change Just Starting To Be Felt
A key point regularly missed is that monetary policy moves at a multi-quarter lag through the economy. That means that the rapid rate hikes year to date have just started to be felt and will continue to slow spending and growth through 2023. This will be the case even if central banks stop hiking and […]
August 18, 2022 | Pelosi – Taiwan – China
QUESTION: With the bank runs in China, do you still think China will surpass the US economy? What about Pelosi’s trip? China’s response was more shock and see than anyone expected. GD ANSWER: Nothing has changed. But you have to understand that the decline in the US economy also benefits China’s rise. The Democrats are […]
August 18, 2022 | “Housing Recession”: Sales Plunge to Lockdown Levels, Active Listings Surge, Prices Begin to Dip as Price Reductions Spike, Investors Pull Back
Inventory and supply of previously-owned homes of all types – single-family houses, condos, co-ops, and townhouses – surged, and sales plunged, amid sky-high prices that have been made impossible by 5%-plus holy-moly mortgage rates. And so the red-hot housing market turns into a “housing recession,” as the National Association of Realtors called it today, after […]