ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 3, 2022 | Conditions Intensifying
It seems that every important factor I follow in silver is intensifying and becoming more bullish. The most important factors in silver are wholesale physical market conditions; the futures market structure on the COMEX; the physical silver and gold holdings of interests associated with JPMorgan; developments in the short position of SLV, the big silver […]
October 3, 2022 | No Average Climate
Everywhere today, conversations are being had about what is happening in asset markets and the economy. Many people are in varying degrees of concern, alarm, and distress. Few are yet in a panic. History assures us that they will be. While 60.9% of investors surveyed in September were bearish in sentiment, as shown below courtesy […]
October 3, 2022 | Canadians Not Willing to Hand Over Guns
The Trudeau Administration wants to eliminate all freedoms. Provinces are fighting back at Trudeau’s gun confiscation, deemed a “mandatory gun buyback” for assault rifles. As usual, the government put this plan in place without a plan for enforcement. Two years ago, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, in the video above, explained that firearm ownership is already […]
October 2, 2022 | Currency Crescendo
Big problems usually begin as small problems. We see that in nature, where small disturbances become hurricanes, and we see it in the economy, too. So, it shouldn’t surprise us if the economic disturbances of the last years compound into something bigger. Going into 2020, we already had over a decade of global monetary and […]
October 2, 2022 | Investment Advice from a Millionaire Barber
[Louie Piro, my barber when I lived in Mountain View CA shortly before Google arrived, became a multimillionaire with a simple investment strategy. I thought of him the other day when a Rick’s Picks subscriber wondered aloud in the chat room which investments are most likely to prosper in the recessionary hard times that Americans will soon […]
October 2, 2022 | The Federal Reserve is Raising Rates – Get Used to It
The title speaks for itself. The Fed is going to continue raising rates until inflation shows notable improvement. Some still question whether the Fed will ease on its hawkish policies, but there is absolutely every indication to believe they will continue at full speed. Core PCE rose 4.9% in August from the year prior and […]
October 1, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 1, 2022
“The most important thing” for the financial markets the past few months, and especially for the last three weeks, has been the realization that the Fed is DETERMINED to get inflation down and “break the back” of future inflation expectations. Credit markets US bond yields YTD have had the steepest rise ever – with 2/3 of the move […]
September 30, 2022 | Panic in London Over Interest Rates and Bond Prices
The panic in UK government bond markets that gripped London Monday was a trigger for emergency action by the Bank of England, which reversed its monetary policy in an attempt to calm markets. The UK budget released late last week was not well received. Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, who delivered the government budget, […]
September 30, 2022 | Amazon to Close 4 of its 5 US Call Centers, Shifts to Work-from-Home, after Closing 44 Warehouses, Halting Construction on 7 Office Towers
Amazon, which booked net losses in Q1 and Q2 totaling nearly $6 billion and whose shares are down 38% from their high in July last year, is undertaking large-scale efforts to cut costs – including commercial real estate costs. It is closing or cancelling 44 warehouses across the US; it’s halting construction on six office […]
September 30, 2022 | Hello from Florida & Fake News
Thank you for all the emails of concern. I am fine. My dog is fine. Never lost power and nothing damaged. All of the newscasters go to the worst possible spots they can find and just stay there showing the very same backdrop all the time. The problem with such sensational broadcasting is that the […]
September 29, 2022 | The Bear Trap – Is It Finally Set?
What has been occurring in the gold and silver markets is nothing short of extraordinary. In the face of all objective and measurable conditions in the physical markets pointing to higher prices, instead prices have collapsed over the past six months by amounts comparable to the sharpest selloffs in history. From the price top of […]
September 29, 2022 | Is a Fed Pivot on the Way?
With inflation at 9.9%, the Bank of England (BoE) had to step in (i.e. “pivot”) yesterday and announce that it would re-start Quantitative Easing in order to lower interest rates and save the British economy from collapse. This was an emergency move by the BoE because leveraged pension funds were getting margin calls on […]
September 29, 2022 | Who Sabotaged the Nord Stream Pipelines?
I rarely believe in coincidences. Everyone is perplexed as to why there are sudden leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea connecting Russia to Germany. The first explosion was recorded on Monday near the Danish island of Bornholm. The second blast happened later that evening and was so powerful that scientists equate […]
September 29, 2022 | Worst Treasury Rout in Decades
Indeed, whether looking at price or yield, there has been panic-selling which has been feeding upon itself. News or opinion sites that pay little attention to interest rates posted a piece on the alarm and another on “Inflation”, which is the obvious explanation.
September 28, 2022 | Canada to End Vaccine Mandates
Canada is finally ending the absurd COVID vaccine mandates. No, Trudeau did not come to his senses. The truth of the matter is that the majority of people dying from COVID are the triple and quadruple vaccinated. In fact, they account for 90% of COVID-related deaths in the past three months. There is true mass […]
September 27, 2022 | Housing Bubble Deflating
This video presents the US housing dynamics well. Unfortunately, after many similar factors, the Canadian housing excesses are even greater and the downside bigger. Home prices have greatly outpaced average persons disposable income. In the video we will explain what this means for the U.S. Housing market and how home prices corrected during similar housing […]
September 27, 2022 | Newsom Begs Illegals and Out-of-State Citizens for Votes
The left is so afraid of a red wave this November that they will do anything to allow illegals to vote. California’s Gavin Newsom, who admitted his party is “getting crushed,” signed into law an act that will permit illegal immigrants to obtain an official government-issued ID. “We’re a state of refuge – a majority-minority […]
September 26, 2022 | US Housing Due for a Correction?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the US housing market would “probably” go through a “correction” period. It is of no surprise as home prices were steadily rising from 2020 until recently after mortgage rates rose and many were simply priced out of the market. The supply chain shortages continue to present a problem for builders. Investors […]
September 26, 2022 | Getting Aligned
Another massive week in the rates market with the US Federal Reserve jacking rates up another 75bps. While this was expected, it was the stark comments from Jerome Powell that really shook markets. Powell basically, in a polite way, said Americans need to endure some economic pain, including job loss, to slow demand and get […]
September 26, 2022 | Private Equity Losses Not Yet Booked
Public pensions have reported a median -7.9% for the fiscal year ended June 30–their biggest loss since 2009 (data published in The Wall Street Journal). This figure reflected the returns for traditional publicly traded investments like stocks and bonds to the end of the second quarter. However, illiquid assets, including private equity funds (PE), represented nearly a […]
September 26, 2022 | Four Horsemen of The Apocalypse on the March
“The least-bad scenario is a hard landing, global recession worse than the 1930s. The worst-case borrows from the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: war, famine, pestilence, and death.” – Kenneth S. Deffeyes “When hopes and dreams are loose in the streets, it is well for the timid to lock doors, shutter windows and lie low until […]
September 25, 2022 | Notes on Inflation
We were a bit preoccupied here in Puerto Rico this week. Hurricane Fiona decided to camp out over the island, bringing mind-boggling amounts of rain. I am sure you have seen the flooding pictures. The entire island lost power and much of it is still down. Our oversized diesel generator, which I thought quite expensive […]
September 25, 2022 | Do You Feel Safe in America?
Crime has been rampant across America over the last two years. The economic downturn hurt low-income communities the most, and some are turning to crime for quick money. The borders are open, and anyone can enter America from the south. Laws have been repealed to permit an assortment of crimes, sweetheart deals for violent offenders […]
September 25, 2022 | Traders use Rick’s Picks to slash risk and boost their win rate:
Yields on 10-Year Treasury Notes, currently at 3.70%, are likely to hit 4.90% before they level off. It is hard to imagine an increase of that magnitude not disrupting the U.S. and global economies severely. America is already in a recession that looks all but certain to deepen before we hit bottom in a year […]
September 24, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes for September 24, 2022
Is this as bad as it gets, or is the “worst” yet to come? In last week’s TD Notes, I declared, “Expectations of more Fed tightening is the “most important thing” for financial markets.” That was after risk assets took a swan dive following Tuesday’s CPI data. This week, the swan dive continued, especially after the […]