ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 23, 2022 | Bear Market Kabuki
The seemingly strong rally that ended the week merely balanced out three days of bland weakness that had preceded it. In the S&P 500, the upthr ust steepened by the hour but ultimately failed to surpass any important prior peaks. The bear seems out to challenge bulls and bears alike with its obviousness. For one, […]
October 23, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 23, 2022
Markets may be turning I’m writing the TD Notes on Sunday afternoon this week. I left my desk last Thursday morning, flew to Calgary to attend Joseph Schachter’s fantastic annual energy conference (more on that below), and got home Sunday afternoon. The Notes will have to be shorter this week – I’ll comment on several […]
October 22, 2022 | Montage of Washington Claiming Vaccines Prevent Transmission
October 22, 2022 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest with Elmer Kim and host John Northcott on the CBC Weekend Business Panel today. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
October 21, 2022 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, October Update: Prices Plunge at Fastest Pace on Record
anada’s housing market is trying to figure out where reality is? After the era of ridiculous house-price spikes, triggered by the Bank of Canada’s interest rate repression and QE, the BoC now gets to grapple with raging inflation by hiking interest rates and shedding assets (QT), which has been pushing up mortgage rates, which renders […]
October 21, 2022 | China is Going Through a Rough Patch with Weak Growth
China probably slipped into a recession recently. On October 18, 2022, data that were expected for third quarter GDP failed to appear. Websites stated that the information was delayed. China matters to everyone on earth as the second largest economy in the world. But there are signs of trouble. Should we worry about China? As […]
October 21, 2022 | EPB Macro: Four Stages of the Economic Slowdown, Update
On today’s episode of “On the Margin”, Eric Basmajian, Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his “Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown” episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022. Here is a direct video link.
October 20, 2022 | Florida Agriculture Losses from Ian
The damages from the hurricane are still being evaluated, but preliminary estimates state that Ian caused Florida’s agriculture industry to lose up to $1.56 billion. Around five million acres of farmland were destroyed by the hurricane, 60% of which was grazing land for cattle. An additional 500,000 acres were affected but not destroyed. Florida produces […]
October 19, 2022 | Australia to Pay Funeral Expenses of Those Who DIED From Mandatory Vaccine
Australia imposed some of the harshest lockdown laws in the world. They built quarantine camps and forcibly imprisoned citizens. They mandated the “safe and effective” vaccine – and now, they are offering to cover the funeral expenses of those who have died from the jab. This is not a parody. The Australian Government has implemented […]
October 19, 2022 | Yields Lead Housing, Unemployment and Stocks
The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), designed to gauge market conditions, fell to 38 in October from 46 in September, now 50% lower than it was six months ago (below 50 is considered negative), and the largest year over year decline in history. Builders cite higher interest rates […]
October 18, 2022 | Eagles Fans Heckle Jill Biden — Will Philly Turn Red?
COMMENT: Dear Mr. Armstrong – Did you see this at last night’s game in Philadelphia (practically Biden’s backyard right near Delaware)? With the crowd so direct in a public manner, it’ll be tough to believe that Democrats would win in PA … maybe? REPLY: As someone who grew up in South Jersey, let’s just […]
October 18, 2022 | Record Tightening Priced into Treasuries, Equities Not Yet
As shown below, since 1999, courtesy of The Daily Shot, the US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond yield spread at -.52 last week was the most negative since the onset of the 2001-02 and 2007-09 US recessions. An imminent recession is also predicted by Bloomberg probability models that now forecast a 100% likelihood of a US […]
October 18, 2022 | Housing Bubble Woes: Plunge in Buyer Traffic & Homebuilder Confidence a Lot Faster than During Housing Bust 1
Traffic of prospective buyers of new single-family houses plunged to the lowest since 2012, excluding the two lockdown months April and May, and is now approaching even the levels of those two lockdown months, according to data today from the National Association of Home Builders. The NAHB index for traffic of prospective buyers dropped to […]
October 18, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – October 2022
It was another slow month for the Greater Vancouver housing market in September. While housing activity was historically low, there is still much to talk about across the housing spectrum. The volatility across global financial markets has been extreme and that is no doubt having a major influence on our local housing market. Interest rates […]
October 17, 2022 | The Next Winter of Death
Remember when Biden publicly chastised the unvaccinated population last year? Do the “right thing,” and you will “get through this.” Those selfish enough to choose medical autonomy, the president stated, were “looking at a winter of severe illness and death for yourselves, your families, and the hospitals you may soon overwhelm.” We have definitive proof […]
October 17, 2022 | The Coming Move To $50 Silver (AND BEYOND)
Twice over the past 42 years, the price of silver has risen to $50; once back in 1980 and again 11 years ago, in 2011. Obviously, no one would argue that something that occurred twice already is not capable of happening again. On both prior silver price peaks, prices then fell quickly. However, the next […]
October 17, 2022 | Faulty Models & Mortgage Fraud
The closely watched US Consumer price index surprised to the upside last week. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% in September, and while inflation is decelerating, down to 8.2% year-over-year, it remains extremely elevated. The recent advance was broad based, with Shelter, food and medical care being the largest contributors. Shelter inflation is surging, at least […]
October 17, 2022 | Marketplace Looks at Canadian Mortgage Fraud
Easy credit and speculative frenzy enabled an extended bull market in fraud. As financial liquidity retreats a plethora of reckless and illegal activities are being laid bare. We go undercover to investigate mortgage brokers and real estate agents perpetrating mortgage fraud for a fee, securing commissions by submitting fake documents for approval. Here is a direct […]
October 16, 2022 | Elon Musk Revoking Ukrainian Aid
Don’t bite the hand that feeds you. SpaceX founder Elon Musk came to Ukraine’s rescue when they lost access to the internet. Musk’s sent Ukraine 20,000 Starlink satellite units at the cost of $80 million. After Elon Musk posted a poll regarding allowing the Ukrainian people to vote on the matter of joining Russia and […]
October 16, 2022 | Pension Sandpile
Sandpiles can be fun. Nothing beats taking kids to the beach (or being a kid!) and watching their creativity blossom into all kinds of magical shapes. The problem with sand construction is it doesn’t last. I have it on good authority that building your house on the sand probably won’t end well. The same holds for financial […]
October 16, 2022 | October ‘Surprise’ Too Widely Advertised?
The spread between permabulls and permabears is at an extreme these days, even for October. This is the month when pessimists’ hopes are highest that an epic bear market will correct dangerous excesses that have been building up in the financial system for more than 50 years. A presumptive and welcome side effect of such […]
October 15, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 15, 2022
Will the Fed pause/pivot before or after “something breaks?” The Fed is determined to continue tightening monetary policy until inflation falls. Stocks and bonds have fallen sharply, and the US Dollar has soared as inflation has remained “hot” despite the Fed’s continued efforts. The market “knows” (and we assume so does the Fed) that “something will break” as a result of […]
October 15, 2022 | The Plot to Seize Russia
The latest book, The Plot to Seize Russia, will be handed out at the WEC. This work has been made possible by the declassification of the documents from the Clinton Administration. This book contains even the transcripts of phone calls between Yeltsin and Bill Clinton thanks to the Freedom of Information Act. This book will […]
October 14, 2022 | Canadians Beware
QUESTION: Martin If we are going to have a war is my money safe in my Canadian banks, or should I have some cash? Regards ANSWER: Canadians should keep some US dollars in cash. Trudeau canceled high-value notes. As of January 2021, he obtained the power to cancel Canadian currency as they do in Europe. Once […]
October 14, 2022 | Canadian Real Estate Speculators Feel The Heat From Higher Rates
Homeowners and real estate speculators in Canada are already feeling the heat from interest rate increases that have had the effect of tripling mortgage interest for some people. A petition was started in protest against higher rates, and by Thursday October 13, 2022, had gathered over 15,800 signers. This makes the petition one of the […]