November 2, 2022 | Eurozone Inflation Reaches New High – Recession Incoming

Inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in October, according to Eurostat who reported a 10.7% rise. That marks an increase from September’s 9.9% posting and an all-time high since Eurostat began compiling Eurozone data in 1997. The European Central Bank (ECB) attempted to curb inflations with another 75 bps hike last week. The […]

November 2, 2022 | Why the 2022 Housing Shortage is Over

Eric’s presentation illuminates the components of housing supply and how it impacts prices. The Housing Shortage has been one of the most popular stories in real estate and the economy over the last year. You see headlines about the lack of inventory driving up home prices everywhere you look. Many said home prices would not […]

November 2, 2022 | If You Believe

If you believed they put a man on the moon Man on the moon If you believe there’s nothing up his sleeve Then nothing is cool REM – Man on the Moon The REM song Man on the Moon, released in 1992, is a haunting melancholy tune, with Andy Kaufmann and his life and death […]

November 1, 2022 | And So The Cycle Goes

Canadian monthly home sales in September were -32% year-over-year and 12% below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for September (chart below since 2007 courtesy of Martin Pelletier). October sales appear to have been worse. Many who bought properties during the 2020-2022 frenzy are now underwater in terms of resale value. Others refinanced existing properties to extract equity […]

November 1, 2022 | Twitter – The New Wild West for Free Speech

All eyes are on Twitter after Elon Musk acquired the company for $44 billion. Musk took Twitter public but plans to make it available to shareholders in another five years as he believes he can reach one billion subscribers by that time. The eccentric billionaire began his takeover by bringing an actual kitchen sink to […]

November 1, 2022 | Runaway Freight Trains

The Bank of Canada raised rates by another 50bps this past week, pushing prime rate to 5.95% and inflicting more pain on variable rate mortgage holders. We’ll circle back to that in a second. What’s important to note here is markets were fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike from the Bank of Canada and […]

October 31, 2022 | Say Hello to 7%

  30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages climbed above 7% in October – up from 3.18% 12 months earlier. This is the first time they have been above 7% since 2002. As my followers know, I used technical analysis to correctly forecast this rise in rates in my January 2022 Timing Letter. Furthermore, even though rates have more […]

October 31, 2022 | Bolsonaro Loses – Good Night Brazil

COMMENT: Marty; Thank you so much for Socrates. Jair M. Bolsonaro lost to the left. I couldn’t believe it. Socrates had a turning point, higher volatility, and a Double Directional Change here in October and November. Looks like we will go the way of Argentina. AH REPLY: The currency should decline into 2023. The promises […]

October 31, 2022 | Housing Led Recession Just Getting Started

In the video, we will analyze economic data that could predict the coming housing crash. We will look at monetary liquidity, mortgage rates, home price-to-income ratios, builder sentiment, and more to determine a probable path forward for the U.S. housing market. The headwind facing further central bank hiking is that the global credit impulse (movement […]

October 30, 2022 | Zelensky Wants WWIII Bringing Death & Destruction to the Entire World

With most con artists, you need to count your fingers after shaking hands. With the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, you have to make sure you still have your arm. He wears the same clothes to project he is at war raising some to hope he at least takes it off to wash. Both Germany […]

October 30, 2022 | Turning Bullish on Energy

I literally grew up in the oil patch: Wise County, Texas, 60 or 70 miles northwest of Fort Worth in a little town called Bridgeport. The two first-generation Greek immigrant brothers who became Mitchell Energy talked old man Christie into funding Christie, Mitchell and Mitchell and they drilled (hundreds?) of natural gas wells which they […]

October 30, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For October 30, 2022

October 13, 2022, was a Key Turn Date A Key Turn Date occurs when several different markets reverse course on (or around) the same date. The fact that several different markets “pivot” simultaneously indicates that something significant has happened – for instance, there has been a significant “shift” in sentiment or a critical geopolitical event. On October 13, the US CPI report was […]

October 29, 2022 | Nigel Farage on Britain

October 29, 2022 | The First Rule of Money

  Investors over-estimate their tolerance for risk. It’s easy to feel like a genius in a bull market – but it’s only after you lose big money will you understand what it’s like to be on the wrong side of a market. It’s not just the financial loss you take – it’s the emotional toll […]

October 28, 2022 | Bank of Canada Wavers

The Bank of Canada blinked first as recession looms and the economy continues to adjust to much higher interest rates. The BOC hiked interest rates only 50 basis points on October 26 when the market expected 75 basis points. Is the Bank of Canada signaling that rates are high enough now? Source: MacBeth MacLeod Partners […]

October 27, 2022 | The Climate Change Zealots are Coming for Your Pets

The climate change zealots have found a new scapegoat to blame for changes in the weather – the family pet. CNN has dubbed the term “carbon pawprint” and is urging owners to switch their pets over to insect-based diets or lab-grown meat and reconsider future animal adoptions. There was a 2017 study entitled “Environmental Impacts […]

October 26, 2022 | Fetterman v Oz – Another Case Against Mail-In Voting

The Pennsylvania Senate debate between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz was a complete disaster for Fetterman. I think everyone felt secondhand embarrassment for John. Fetterman seemed incoherent for most of the debate. He struggled to form logical sentences or stay on topic. His team is now in the midst of damage control. They claim that […]

October 26, 2022 | Bank of Canada Blinks, Stocks Should Next

Too loose for too long, central banks have responded to lagging inflationary pressures in 2022 with the sharpest six-month tightening cycle on record. The Bank of Canada (BOC) was in the batter’s box this morning and after raising its policy rate to 3% last month from .25 in January, had telegraphed another +.75bps for today. […]

October 26, 2022 | “No Easy Outs to Restoring Price Stability”: Bank of Canada Hikes by 50 bpts to 3.75%, More Hikes to Come, QT to Continue, as “Unsustainable” Home Prices Plunge, GDP “Stalls”

The Bank of Canada hiked the target for its overnight rate for the sixth time in a row, today by 50 basis points, to 3.75%, the highest since 2008, following the 75-basis-point hike in September and the 100-basis-point hike in July. Since it started the rate-hike cycle in March, the BOC has jacked up its rate […]

October 25, 2022 | Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Fighting Back Against WEF

This is big news. Alberta’s new Premier Danielle Smith is the first government leader to apologize for vaccine mandates. Taking it a step further, she directly criticizes the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Schwab; she has “no interest in being involved with them.” During her first day in office, Smith immediately apologized for the vaccine […]

October 25, 2022 | The Beatings Will Continue

Inflation in Canada slowed less than expected, growing by 6.9% year-over-year in September, economist expectations were at 6.7%. A small miss that will have big ramifications. Markets immediately repriced Bank of Canada rate hike odds for October 26th, now expecting another jumbo 75bps rate hike. In other words, the beatings will continue until morale improves. […]

October 25, 2022 | Biblical Mean Reversion in Motion

Subprime loan delinquency rates are higher than the 2008 recession levels today, with unemployment still near all-time lows and the layoff cycle just beginning… Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data […]

October 24, 2022 | Can Society Ever Learn for its Mistakes?

QUESTION #1: Hi Martin Do you ever wish Socrates was wrong? Sometimes I do! All the best Maria QUESTION #2: Marty; I have been following you since the Nineties. You have never been wrong, or should I say, Socrates. I also know how you have saved many companies since I was there at the board […]

October 23, 2022 | Sweden Will Not Meet Agenda 2030

New Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is not heeding to the Green agenda. He promptly eliminated the entire Ministry of Climate and Environment, marking the first time in 35 years that Sweden does not have a specific climate ministry. People are crying that the world will crumble without funding bureaucrats who pretend they have the ability […]