January 9, 2023 | Beware the Plot Behind Interest Rates

  Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain before you understand the real trend. It is true that Federal Reserve officials are committed to fighting inflation and expect higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made, according to minutes released from the central bank’s December meeting. Also what has been […]

January 9, 2023 | Special Note

(Special note – I hadn’t planned to publish this article to subscribers I sent as part of my twice-weekly subscription service ($34.95 per month), but a most trusted advisor, Jim Cook from Investment Rarities, Inc., strongly suggested I do so. Since Cook has never failed to provide solid advice for more than 20 years, I […]

January 8, 2023 | Stirring the Pot For War

Many people have written in and asked why have I been unable to convince governments to avoid war. Quite frankly, they think they can win and more importantly, they need this because the entire socialistic system is collapsing. They rely on people buying their bonds year after year with no intention of paying anything back. […]

January 8, 2023 | What to Expect as Inflation Cools

[The following went out in mid-December to clients of  Doug Behnfield, a Boulder-based wealth manager and senior vice president at Morgan Stanley. The letter provides an insightful view of the economic landscape as we enter the new year. Doug foresees falling stocks, falling inflation (or possibly modest deflation) and a continuing rally in long-term Treasurys.  He is […]

January 8, 2023 | Wild Ride of US Auto Sales in 2022 below 1977. Charts for GM, Toyota, Ford, Stellantis, Hyundai-Kia, Honda, and Nissan oh Dear

The thing about new vehicle sales in the US is that even in good years, they’re bad, and in bad years, they’re terrible. In 2022, total new vehicles delivered to retail customers and fleets (dominated by rental fleets), fell by 8% from the already terrible 2021, to 13.7 million vehicles, below where deliveries had been […]

January 7, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For January 7, 2023

“What’s the Fed going to do?” was the Big Question in 2022, but it won’t be the Big Question in 2023 The Fed raised short-term interest rates aggressively in 2022. The yield on the 2-year Treasury soared from ~0.9% in early January to ~4.7% in November – the highest yield in 15 years. Looking one […]

January 6, 2023 | 18th Century Copper Riots & Private Money

During the reign of King George III (1760–1820) the first issue of halfpennies actually was not issued until 10 years after his accession to the throne in 1770. Consequently, the vast number of halfpennies in circulation were actually all counterfeits. Indeed, counterfeiting became rampant at first because there was a coin shortage. In 1771, it […]

January 6, 2023 | Speculation on Interest Rates and Inflation in 2023

Speculation on the direction for interest rates will dominate stock market chatter in the first half of 2023. In November 2022 market participants had started to anticipate a decline in inflation which would allow the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates, leading to a new bull market in stocks, bonds and housing. Will interest rates […]

January 5, 2023 | The Coming Revolution – The End of Brazil

  The leftist press immediately claims that any assertions of a rigged election in Brazil are as baseless as the Hunter Biden laptop. Our model shows that the election was in fact bogus and it was in a series of global elections that are being rigged to create this global leftist agenda. For any newspaper […]

January 4, 2023 | 2023 Comes in Like Ongoing Bear for Stocks and Commodities

Two thousand twenty-two vaporized $25 trillion of notional equity value from global balance sheets, and the global bond market lost nearly $10 trillion more. Together, the decline in these two asset classes amounted to about a third of the world’s 2022 103.86 trillion GDP, not counting ongoing losses in real estate, commodities, or the crypto […]

January 4, 2023 | Belarus Drafts Every Male 18 to 60 for the Inevitable War

    Belarus has issued a Draft for all men 18 to 60 years old. This war that our leaders are determined to create is going to be beyond anything previously contemplated. Even the US will most likely adopt a draft and it will be highly probably it will be to at least age 45 […]

January 3, 2023 | It Turns Out that the CIA Has been Behind Sabotage Attacks Inside Russia

Every time we post something on the CIA the Links Go Crazy  

January 3, 2023 | 2022 Inflation is Final – 32% for the year

Our Independent Inflation model has calculated that the combined rate for everything from food to transportation came in at 32% for 2022. That is a far cry from the official number. This is simply calculated by Socrates from an unbiased perspective. Thank you, COVID & the Russian Sanctions. What a new wonderful world the Biden […]

January 2, 2023 | Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023

What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of  where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there […]

January 2, 2023 | Does Supply v Demand Really Work All the Time

QUESTION: Didn’t gold decline from 1980 to 1999 because of all the dumping of gold by central banks? WV ANSWER: I understand that the quantity rise, in theory, makes sense that the price would decline. But historically, there is no evidence that supports that theory on a consistent basis. There are times when the supply […]

January 2, 2023 | Beware If 2023 Gets Off to a Good Start

Be skeptical if stocks start the new year on a positive note, since that would be the perfect way for Mr Market to set the hook to trap bulls and bears alike. It would probably take most of the opening session on Tuesday for an enticing rally to build up steam, since the bears who […]

January 2, 2023 | Silver – 2022 – A Momentous Year

The last couple of years have been significant in silver (and gold), not particularly price-wise, but in other important ways. For instance, 2020 was particularly note-worthy in that JPMorgan was partially brought to justice for its many years of manipulating the price of precious metals on the COMEX and agreeing to settle with the Justice […]

January 1, 2023 | Did they Get the Pandemic Idea from the 2010 Simpson’s

December 31, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For December 31, 2022

The Financial Times: Global Stock and bond markets lost more than $30T in 2022 The S+P more than doubled (up ~120%) from the Covid Panic lows in March 2020 to the All-Time Highs in January 2022 as a combination of aggressive monetary and fiscal policies flooded markets with “money,” drove risk assets higher and spawned unforgettable acronyms like […]

December 31, 2022 | 2022, Year of Face-Ripping Bear-Market Rallies that Got Crushed

The year 2022 ended with: S&P 500 Index: -19.4% from a year ago, -20.3% from its high on January 3, 2022. Nasdaq Composite: -33.1% from a year ago, -35.4% from its high on November 22, 2021. The whole mess started in that infamous February 2021, with the popping of the bubble of the most ridiculously […]

December 30, 2022 | Cheers To Healthful Longevity

Seventy-two percent of Americans (Canadians, about the same) are now overweight and obese, reducing the quality and quantity of their life. Not to mention crushing the sustainability of our sick-care system. Study after study shows that it’s the type and quantity of things we are consuming. Here’s to delicious things that don’t promote cancer, heart […]

December 30, 2022 | It’s Not A Lie If You Believe It

“The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.” – George Orwell, 1984 “Great is truth, but still greater, from a practical point of view, is silence about truth.” ― Aldous Huxley, Brave New World I wish I could go through a day without having to reference Orwell and Huxley when observing how the […]

December 30, 2022 | Outlook for 2023: Sort Of

Decades ago, when we were retained by major mining companies for our studies on metal prices there were varying views. Guys in the market-finance department wanted to know price trends for metals. Using supply/demand analysis they were experienced at extrapolating trends. Actual reversals in price typically lead key changes in the supply/demand equation, which makes […]

December 29, 2022 | The Political Storm on the Horizon

COMMENT: Could an individual state finish the wall started by the previous administration? It’s painfully obvious Washington has its own agenda. And at this time, I see no point in even lobbying our federal government to do anything in our border towns/states. Is it legal to have our individual states finish what was started? I […]