January 20, 2023 | Canadian Housing is in a Slump But Not a Crash

The Canadian housing market is in a correction, but not yet in a crash. The CREA, a real estate industry association, put out a report that showed a 13.2 percent decline in house prices from the peak that occurred early in 2022. Will this housing correction turn into a crash? The CREA, a perennially bullish […]

January 19, 2023 | Zelensky’s Propaganda Productions

@rhto007♬ original sound – R/olim Manito   This reminds me of one of my favorite movies about how corrupt it really is in DC Wonderland. It’s a great flick!    

January 19, 2023 | Equities Don’t Bottom When Yield Curves are Inverted

The percentage of global 2/10-year Treasury yield curves inverted at the end of 2021 (long rates lower than short) was 90% (in blue below since 1980, courtesy of Lance Roberts). Historically, recessions (grey bars) and bear markets (S&P 500 in black) have followed when the number of inverted 10-year curves reached 50% (red dotted line). […]

January 18, 2023 | Musk on the SEC

January 18, 2023 | Epic Financial Busts Bring Epic Opportunity

A decade of ultra-low rates punished risk-conscious savers and encouraged profligate financial decisions among the masses. Rather than use record-low interest rates to get out of debt faster, most levered up to imprudent levels. Insufficient cash and falling prices are common themes as pandemic excesses unwind. This will take some time, but for the few […]

January 18, 2023 | Solving the Debt Crisis the American Way

On Friday, Jan. 13, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote to Congress that the U.S. government will hit its borrowing limit on Jan. 19, forcing the new Congress into negotiations over the debt limit much sooner than expected. She said she will use accounting maneuvers she called “extraordinary measures” to keep U.S. finances running for a few months, […]

January 17, 2023 | The Davos Sex Trade

Besides the Swiss government sending in 5,000 troops to guard Schwab, the other professional trade that besieges Davos are the prostitutes. In fact, they strongly advise that women should NOT attend Davos UNESCORTED because they will be taken to be a member of the guild. The 2016 Democratic National Convention was a presidential nominating convention, held at the Wells Fargo […]

January 16, 2023 | The Majority MUST Always be Wrong

  Following the crowd of what is popular and supposed to be the cutting edge of investment, Robert Belfer, the oil Barron, lost billions with ENRON and then Bernie Madoff. Then he became a shareholder in FTX. With a track record like that, you certainly would be firing your financial adviser.  The inside joke about […]

January 16, 2023 | Tesla: Zero To Most Profitable in 15 Years

Truly other world… Sandy Munro was blown away by Tesla’s profit margin, which is eight times more than Toyota’s.  Here is a direct video link.

January 16, 2023 | Big, Fat, Laggy Indexes

Happy Monday Morning! Canadian inflation data drops this week on Wednesday, January 17th. This will be an important headline given that the Bank of Canada is set to meet the following week on January 25th. As of right now the market is still expecting a 25bps rate hike, but that could change if CPI comes […]

January 15, 2023 | The Punchbowl Is Gone

The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes. That means one of the three possible directions (up, down, sideways) is currently […]

January 15, 2023 | Congress Outperformed S&P 500 in 2022

The headline explains why the voracious bounders on Capitol Hill are willing to spend so much time, money and effort getting re-elected. For they are not just investment insiders, they are recidivist sponsors of legislation that directly benefits their stock portfolios. It is quite a racket, and whatever laws exist to prevent them from getting […]

January 15, 2023 | Hangover Time for Used-Vehicle Dealers. For Buyers, Patience Will Pay Off

The used-vehicle market now has a huge hangover: The price spike from August 2020 till early 2022. Over this period, retail prices spiked by mind-boggling ridiculous amounts – 40% per the average used vehicle listing price, according to Cox Automotive; 53% per the used-vehicle CPI, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics – though there […]

January 14, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For January 14, 2023

Markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates this year, but the Fed says, “Don’t count on that.” This is the current SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) forward curve. It trades at a discount to par (zero interest rates), so a price of 95 implies a 5% rate. This chart shows that the market expects […]

January 14, 2023 | Is the Fed a Den of Thieves? Or Independent?

COMMENT: The Fed….why would anyone put a greedy fox in charge of the hen house. Mr. Armstrong, you, of all people have more than a passing acquaintance with the corruption of the big banks. And these are the kindly gentlemen that have been appointed to “guide” monetary policy for our greater good. Simply don’t understand […]

January 13, 2023 | Inflation is Not Going Away Any Time Soon

Inflation as measured by the CPI is moderating but it is not likely to hit the Federal Reserve target of 2 percent soon, despite a widespread and growing belief to the contrary. A popular narrative about inflation: The surge was caused by the war in Ukraine, COVID relief government spending and supply chain disruptions and, […]

January 13, 2023 | Canada’s Housing Downturn Barely Started

Bank economist Robert Kavcic offers useful macro housing context in the Better Dwelling segment below. One caveat worth noting, though: from a price peak in February 2022, a housing bottom by mid-2023 would be an unusually quick downcycle. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s late but great tightening from March 2022 through early 2023 will contract […]

January 12, 2023 | Monetary Policy Changes are Felt Slowly and Then All At Once

Used car prices fell nearly 15% year over year in December, and as shown below, since 1997, prices would need to fall another 30% to return to pre-COVID norms. Monetary policy changes move through the economy in 12 to 24-month lags. This happens for a few reasons. First, many interest rates are fixed for set […]

January 12, 2023 | Davos 2023 – the A Threat to the Entire World?

  QUESTION: Marty, I think Schwab’s great reset is all about your 2032. He seems to be a Socrates subscriber and is just trying to manipulate the outcome in his direction. What do you think? Joe ANSWER: I know, Many people have noticed this trend. This is coming up more and more. Back in 1983/1984, […]

January 11, 2023 | Russian Black Fleet Heads to Sea

Russian Navy ships and submarines have suddenly left their base at Novorossiysk, in the Black Sea, en-masse. This is highly unusual and many fear that this is a change in tactics. The Western Press keeps trying to paint Russia as losing the war so, quite frankly, they can get more people to volunteer to join […]

January 11, 2023 | This Housing Bust is Global

Canada led the world in the most egregiously inflated home prices in the past few years, but New Zealand, Australia and Sweden were other top-risk contenders. Now high debt levels are having similar demand and price-depressing impacts in many countries all at once. See Sweden is facing its ‘day of reckoning’ as house prices plummet: “We […]

January 10, 2023 | Gold v Dollar

QUESTION #1:  Marty, Thanks for your interesting post about gold and China. Which do you think will perform better this year, gold or the dollar? Thank you. DM QUESTION #2: Marty, obviously the motive behind China buying gold is critical. I tried to explain that to a goldbug. It went in one ear and out […]

January 10, 2023 | Real Estate Prices Typically Contract for Years After Bubbles Burst

In the first quarter of 2021, residential ‘investment’ in Canada (real estate commissions, construction of homes, significant renovations, and ownership transfer costs) comprised some 9% of Canada’s GDP, while business investment plunged. US residential investment peaked at 6.7% in 2006 before that epic bubble burst. We have noted repeatedly that Canada’s exuberance in real estate was an unsustainable […]

January 9, 2023 | Brace for a Year of Volatility Ahead

Happy Monday Morning! Back to our regularly scheduled programming after a few weeks off during the holidays. Last year was an eventful year across the Canadian Real Estate spectrum to say the least. I figured i’d start off the New Year with a quick sentiment check. And the survey says… things are going to get […]