ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
January 30, 2023 | Europe will be Destroyed over Ukraine
While Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been pushing back against demands of Ukraine for fighter jets now after the tanks, there have been those in Germany eager to support Ukraine to destroy Russia. They have filled their heads with such propaganda that Russia will conquer all of Europe if it is not completely destroyed NOW, they […]
January 30, 2023 | Finding a Bid
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, one and done from the BoC this past week. Here’s Tiff Macklem, “With today’s modest increase, we expect to pause rate hikes while we assess the impacts. To be clear, this is a conditional pause. Its conditional on economic developments evolving broadly inline with our outlook.” For those playing along […]
January 29, 2023 | Can Forecasting be Infallible?
QUESTION: Do you think that Socrates will ever achieve infallibility? KJ ANSWER: I have only shown our Global Market Watch model at conferences. It is a pattern recognition model that is learning every day. I have pointed out that nothing is infallible but if anything can achieve that, it will be this model. Right […]
January 29, 2023 | Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks. We can apply a similar idea to economic growth. Everyone wants the benefits of higher GDP. How much inflation, unemployment, and market losses are […]
January 28, 2023 | Pfizer – A Clear & Present Danger to the World?
Of course, YuuTube removed it to protect Pfizer. They are part of the media that has been targeting free speech and wants nothing but to sell humanity down the river. Here is the link to Project Veritas off the record with Pfizer. In the video, there is a question if they are engaged in “gain of […]
January 28, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For January 28, 2023
FOMO Alert! The Nasdaq had its highest weekly close yesterday since September, up ~13% from the 27-month lows made last October. This week’s close was 28% below the All-Time High made in November 2021. Inflation is falling and is expected to keep falling, so the Fed is expected to increase short rates (only) 25 bps this […]
January 27, 2023 | The Bank of Canada Hikes Rates Again But Promises An End To The Pain
The Bank of Canada (BOC) met expectations Wednesday with a 25-basis point increase in rates, and hinted that it might go on hold. This was the eighth consecutive interest rate increase from the BOC. Markets expect inflation to fall quickly allowing the BOC to cut rates, perhaps as soon as the middle of 2023. Until […]
January 27, 2023 | California Wealth Tax to be Applied to Anyone Whoever Worked in the State
Some people have written in and said I am just a Republican and I hate California. Sorry, I consider myself in the middle. I disagree with a lot on the Republican side as well. Simply put, the government should NOT be in the business of trying to manipulate society any more than the Investment Banks […]
January 26, 2023 | Tightening Will Continue To Bite Through 2023/2024
As we’ve noted many times, changes in monetary policy—tightening or loosening—move through the economy at a lag of one to two years. For this reason, the record tightening done by central banks in 2022/2023 will slow the economy into 2024, and any easing efforts in late 2023/24 will not fully be felt until 2024/2025. In […]
January 26, 2023 | Bank of Canada: “We’re Pausing to Assess Whether We’ve Done Enough,” Hikes by 1/4% to 4.5%, QT Continues
he Bank of Canada hiked its policy rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the 8th rate hike in a row, totaling 425 basis points in 10 months, bringing the target of the overnight rate to 4.5%. QT will continue and “is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate,” the BOC said in the […]
January 26, 2023 | NATO the Greatest Threat to Civilization
COMMENT: Hi Marty, I wonder if the downside of the US occupation of Europe since WW2 and US subsidization of military aid has produced a culture of pacifism. Germany’s reluctance to supply tanks to Ukraine suggests other motives. The media focuses more on Russia and internal dissent against Putin. One reads about defections and men trying […]
January 25, 2023 | The Coming Great Global Default
QUESTION: Dear Martin Could you please describe more in detail what you are expecting when talking about the breakdown of the monetary system? Will there be differences between countries like Germany and Switzerland for example? Especially regarding pension systems. I assume, there might be big differences between countries. Many thanks and best regards, R. ANSWER: The monetary […]
January 25, 2023 | Timeless Advice: Don’t Buy Stuff We Don’t Have The Cash For
This clip is ten years old and timeless. Funny because so painfully apropos at every income level. (Thanks, John, for sending this one from the archives). On the other side, of course, we have all the credit pushers brainwashing the masses with assurances that we “deserve credit” and are “richer than we think.” Make it stop! Here’s a direct video […]
January 24, 2023 | Unfinished Business
Over the past year or two, I discovered that Bank of America had built up an absolutely massive short derivatives position in silver in the over-the-counter market (not COMEX) of one billion ounces or more. The position was the result of a silver lease transaction with JPMorgan lending the silver to BofA. JPM knew in […]
January 24, 2023 | The Debt Ceiling Hits Pi – $31.4 Trillion
The debt ceiling has currently hit $31.4 trillion (Pi), representing borrowing that the Treasury undertakes to fund its financial obligations, ranging from safety-net benefits such as Social Security. Is this coincidence, or is the magic number where the government starts to lose control? As Socrates has been forecasting, this is the end of the road for our Republican […]
January 24, 2023 | ECRI: A Recession Really is Coming
Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji are co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which determines recession dates for 22 economies around the world. Their latest findings are summarized in Don’t be fololed! A recession really is coming: Recession concerns in the US are widespread these days. Yet, some economists argue that the strength of the labor market […]
January 23, 2023 | A Healthy Cleansing
Happy Monday Morning! We got more encouraging news on the inflation front. Consumer prices in Canada fell on a seasonally adjusted basis, dropping -0.1% month over month, the first drop since July 2020. Yes, annual inflation still looks very high at 6.3%, but that only tells us what happened a year ago. We discussed these big […]
January 23, 2023 | Hoisington Q4 2022 Review and Outlook
Hoisington Management’s fourth quarter 2022 Review and Outlook is now available to the public on its website here. As always, a concise master class on monetary impacts and the economic cycle, see A Theory of Interest Rate Cycles. The bottom line: growth bearish and investment grade bond bullish: Poor consumer spending over the critical Christmas shopping period, slumping exports, […]
January 23, 2023 | 2023: Fourth Turning Meets Mass Formation Psychosis (PART 2)
In Part 1 of this article, I laid out the mass formation psychosis theory postulated by Mattias Desmet in his book The Psychology of Totalitarianism and how totalitarian minded politicians and bureaucrats manipulated the masses by creating the covid crisis. Now I will focus on how this will impact the Fourth Turning we are currently […]
January 23, 2023 | Why do Neocons Want War with Russia?
Lindsey Graham is the twin brother of John McCain. I had asked John McCain once why he hated Russia so much. He never responded with any reason. It was always the same nonsense he always spread before Putin and after. It has baffled me as to what the difference is between Germany and Russia. […]
January 22, 2023 | Soros Owns Mainstream Press?
Posted Jan 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong Spread the love COMMENT: Marty, As you know I worked for _____________ in NYC. We all know you were innocent back then. I have followed you for probably 30 years. Everyone knew that the bankers told the CFTC that you had to be silenced. Your forecast cost them […]
January 22, 2023 | Thin News Begets Thick Craziness
The chart is meant to put Friday’s giddy short-squeeze in perspective. If you are a bull and feeling a little discouraged by what you see, that is what I had intended. What better time to rack bears than in the final hours of a week that was more comic relief than hard news? Biden’s docugate […]
January 22, 2023 | Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art. (Sadly, I wasn’t invited even though I have a […]
January 22, 2023 | 2023: Fourth Turning Meets Mass Formation Psychosis
“Four things need to exist or need to be in place if you want a large-scale mass phenomenon to emerge. The first thing is that there needs to be a lot of socially isolated people, people who experience a lack of social bonds. The second one is that there needs to be a lot of […]
January 21, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For January 21, 2023
The Anti-dollar trade Last week I wrote: Gold bugs have believed for years that gold is the original Anti-dollar, but lately, the Euro currency has become known as the Anti-dollar…If a currency trader has a negative view of the USD, buying EURUSD is the go-to trade. But if a trader/investor had a negative view of […]