ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
February 11, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For February 11, 2023
Key Turn Date – February 2, 2023 – The Fed Will Be Higher For Longer The market was “Fighting the Fed” for the past couple of months – the forward short-term interest rate market was pricing the Fed to stop raising rates in Q2 and to cut rates by ~50bps by December 2023 (and by ~200bps by […]
February 11, 2023 | Assumptions Have Consequences
Remember National Lampoon’s Vacation? It was a 1983 comedy film in which suburban dad Clark Griswold (Chevy Chase) takes his family on a cross-country road trip to the fabled Walley World amusement park. Clark made one critical mistake, though. He assumed Walley World would be open and waiting for them. This was to be the family’s reward for […]
February 10, 2023 | See Who is Swimming Naked Now
Famed investor Warren Buffett, of Berkshire Hathaway, has a saying about market bubbles. He says, “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” Is the tide going out? Who is swimming naked? As discussed last week the bear market is about one year old, and the markets are down slightly […]
February 10, 2023 | VRIC: Stocks, Gold and The Dollar
Our coverage of the VRIC continues with a discussion about the U.S. dollar, and it’s status as a reserve currency, including the role gold plays in protecting wealth and how the dollar’s dominance affects the broader market. Brent Johnson, Danielle Park, Grant Williams, and Russell Gray give their opinions on what is often a hotly […]
February 10, 2023 | Digital Dollars – the Real Agenda
I know we have a lot of people expressing their opinion that the dollar will crash because when the government converts it to digital, it will be like spy wear tracking everything we do. Now you have people running around preaching the dollar will crash any day citing Biden’s Executive Order 14067. However, read it […]
February 9, 2023 | China Buying Gold for a Very Important Reason
Of course, the Goldbugs always misinterpret a rally in gold. The buying coming from China is in preparation for war – not bullish gold for the sake of gold. I have warned that if war was coming, then you will see China start to sell off US Treasuries. You certainly do not fund your adversary’s […]
February 9, 2023 | EV Sales Spiked in California. Share Hit 17%. ICE Vehicle Sales Plunged. First Uptick in Electricity Sales after 13 Years of Decline
Sales of battery-electric vehicles (EVs) in California spiked by 62% in 2022, to 285,199 vehicles, according to registration data released by the California New Car Dealer Association (CNCDA). And the market share of EVs nearly doubled to 17% of total new vehicle sales: Overall vehicle sales in California, ICE vehicles and EVs combined, fell by […]
February 8, 2023 | The Financial Noose Tightens
The US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is used by monetary policymakers to gauge credit conditions. Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending standards on commercial loans to small, large and middle-market firms (blue bars below since 1990, courtesy of The Daily Shot). This indicator has traditionally led US corporate […]
February 8, 2023 | The US Covert Action to Destroy Nord Stream & Russia’s Economy
Seymour Hersch won a Pulitzer Prize for his reporting on the My Lai massacre in Vietnam. He is one of a dying breed of independent journalists. He has revealed that the United States destroyed Nord Stream Pipeline and this was all part of the Climate Change War where the Neocons are now supporting Nazis to […]
February 7, 2023 | Equity and Corporate Bond Prices Still Screaming Cycle Top!
So far in 2023, value-indiscriminate buyers are still pounding into the riskiest low-yielding assets with wild abandon. Take BBB-rated bonds-whose credit quality is just one level above “junk.” At past cycle bottoms (attractive investment opportunities), the US Fed had raised short-term rates enough that defaults spiked and BBB bond prices fell more than 20%–enough to […]
February 6, 2023 | Can the Future be Altered?
QUESTION: Good afternoon – Will try to make this one quick. Know you are busy. Have you ever asked Socrates how to “defeat” its predictions? Or to reduce volatility/amplitude of projected events? (Really, you should be recognized alongside Adam Smith, Ricardo, et al. for your discoveries and contributions.) JN ANSWER: Because the entire world is […]
February 6, 2023 | No Bull, Caution Ahead
Happy Monday Morning! Lots of chatter these days about increased activity in the housing market. It’s true open houses are busier, stale inventory that’s been sitting for months is suddenly under contract, and some new listings are fetching multiple offers. Quite a difference four weeks can make. Is this the end of the housing bear […]
February 5, 2023 | Consumer Stimulus the Easy Way
Treat the stock market as you would a sleazy carnival game and you hold the key to accurately predicting its behavior. Take AAPL, for instance. We should have known that permabears were being set up for a fleecing when an always-complicit news media worked slavishly to stoke anticipation of horrendous Q4 earnings. Apple certainly didn’t […]
February 5, 2023 | Biden – His Creative Destruction of America
COMMENT: Marty, I know you no longer want to work in Washington. Honestly, your experience is greatly needed. Everything you said that this braindead administration is pushing China and Russia together when Nixon had divided them is coming true. The WSJ has even reported that China is aiding Russia in Ukraine. With all due respect, […]
February 4, 2023 | A Muddle-Through Market, for Now
These weekly letters, of which I’ve now written well over 1,000 (plus 7 books and multiple papers and articles), are generally about two broad topics: the economy and the financial markets. While related, these aren’t the same. Good news for one can be (and often is) bad news for the other. I explained my economic […]
February 3, 2023 | EPB Macro: Housing Leading The Economy Lower
This segment reviews US data, but the trends are similar in Canada. The EPB Housing Deep Dive report is focused on the residential construction cycle (the leading sector of the economy). Here is a direct video link. This report is a preview of content exclusive to members of the EPB Research Gold Tier. If you would […]
February 3, 2023 | The Bear Market in U.S. Stocks is Not Done Yet
One year ago investment expert Jeremy Grantham used his experience and knowledge from a 55-year career in investment management to predict that a new bear market in stocks had begun. He was right as the stock market in the U.S. declined about 20 percent over the following year. One year on, Grantham has an update […]
February 2, 2023 | Gold v Digital Fiat & Marxism
QUESTION: Hi AE…so gov’t “money” (fiat currency) will become just some abstract floating measurement of value, an electronic entry in an electronic account in the cybersphere. As these various so-called gov’ts become less reliable, even between themselves, do you see the possibility of them simply skipping their phony currencies, & trading directly in gold. Russia could […]
February 2, 2023 | Inflation History Lesson
“Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds rate exceeding the CPI” ~ Stan Druckenmiller The CPI was 6.5% in December 2022 — while the Fed Funds rate is currently 4.33% Coming in January 2023 To help lower CPI readings, the Bureau of Labor Services is changing […]
February 2, 2023 | Big Doings in SLV
On the 23rd and 24th of January, some 20.5 million ounces of silver were deposited into the I-Shares Silver Trust, SLV, and shares outstanding have increased by 23.2 million (the difference being due to the cumulative management fee of 0.5% per annum). To say that the large increase in physical silver inflows and shares outstanding in SLV […]
February 1, 2023 | Bullish Dreams Should Be Tempered By History
January brought gains across most asset classes, especially for the junkiest debt, equities and crypto-Ponzis. The bulls are chomping at the bit to convince us that the 2022 loss cycle is now over. However, it bears noting that big rebounds have been a regularly recurring feature within bear markets since time began. The Bloomberg chart […]
February 1, 2023 | Was COVID Just a Rehearsal for WWIII?
QUESTION: Hi Marty, You’ve taught through many historic examples that politicians drag us to war because they need an external enemy to hide their failures. Wag the dog. Have you considered this time around the U.S. will enter ww3 to cover up the reveal of the covid vaccine blunder? Yes, war will still hide the debt […]
January 31, 2023 | Fox News – “Ominous Great Depression Warning”
Fox Business is reporting that economic conditions are much worse than you are being told. Unfortunately, this is the conclusion when you have ZERO understanding of the historical trends and economic conditions. It is true that the shortages of COVID have caused prices to rise faster than economic growth and most incomes. Therefore, they conclude that […]
January 31, 2023 | Irrationally Exuberant January Comes to a Close
The US Fed’s next rate announcement is due on Wednesday, and the consensus expects a 25 basis points (bps) increase, raising base rates in the banking system to 4.25 to 4.75% from 0 to .25% one year ago. Lest anyone forget, the Fed is also reducing assets on its balance sheet (QT) by $95 billion […]
January 31, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, January Update: Now Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego Plunge Fastest
Housing Bubble 2 continues to deflate relentlessly, no matter what data set we’re looking at. Today we got the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “November,” which is a three-month moving average of home sales that were entered into public records in September, October, and November, reflecting deals made largely in August through October. Prices in all […]