February 21, 2023 | Bear Market Strategy

    If this housing cycle plays out like the cycles of the past 50 years, this bear market is going to be brutal.  Cavaet emptor. Unless you can buy at a significant discount to fair market value, do not buy because of fear of missing out (FOMO). We will use trend and momentum analysis […]

February 21, 2023 | A Constructive Suggestion

On Feb 16, the CFTC released another update on the status of the delay in publishing COT reports on all markets (some seem to think the delay is only for gold and silver), as result of the cyber-incident at a key third-party service provider. The new announcement indicated that COT reports will commence starting next […]

February 21, 2023 | Surging Homes For Sale and Mean-Reverting Prices

Surging home inventories and mean-reverting prices are excellent for those seeking attractive entry opportunities. But housing downcycles have historically taken an average of four years to bottom. So, patience and cycle foresight are key. The segment below offers some good insight into housing dynamics in different US cities. As in Canada, the areas with the […]

February 20, 2023 | Ukraine – The Pawn of Foreign Powers

QUESTION: Hi Marty, Would it not be better for Putin to follow the American model and invade all of Ukraine vs. using nuclear weapons? There is still time to execute such a strategy. Taking control of all of Ukraine would give Russia control of the borders, hence no more major offensive weapons would cross to […]

February 20, 2023 | Social Crisis

Happy Monday Morning! National housing figures dropped this past week, and it wasn’t pretty. January home sales fell 37% year-over-year, a sharp decline from the blistering hot bull market of January 2022. When you zoom out further, this January was the slowest since 2009. However, balancing this out was a dearth of supply trickling to […]

February 20, 2023 | March of Folly: Fall of American Empire

“Folly is a child of power.” ― Barbara W. Tuchman, The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam “A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests. Mankind, it seems, makes a poorer performance of government than of almost any other human activity. In […]

February 19, 2023 | Adjustments Matter

Federal Reserve officials like to call their decisions “data dependent.” Business leaders say it a little differently, often “data driven.” The point, in both cases, is something like: “We consider relevant data when making important decisions.” All well and good but does anyone really say otherwise? “I prefer seat-of-the-pants guesswork” doesn’t typically impress investors. So […]

February 19, 2023 | The Bitcoin Delusion

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Now with Switzerland outlawing a cashless society, I understand your point that cryptocurrency is really a dead end. Without power, it cannot exist and as you said in times of war, you take down the power grid and they can do that with an EPM pulse. These Bitcoin zealots are clueless about […]

February 19, 2023 | When the Bearish Case Looks Too Good

Get AAPL right and you get the stock market right. That has been our mantra for years, and it has never failed us. Apple shares and the broad averages are unlikely to go their separate ways because so many portfolio managers regard the stock as they do their Patek Phillipe wristwatches: something to pass on to […]

February 18, 2023 | Gate’s Plan to End World Hunger

February 18, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For February 18, 2023

Interest rates rose again this week; stocks, bonds and gold fell while the US Dollar rallied I began last week’s Notes by pointing out that markets had been “fighting the Fed” for the past couple of months by expecting the Fed to “pivot” – to start cutting interest rates – by mid-2023 despite repeated warnings from Chairman Powell that the Fed […]

February 17, 2023 | What is Really the Foundation of Money?

COMMENT: Martin, After several years of reading your blog, I have concluded that Socrates’ prognostications appear to be spot on. I also share your assertion that a study of history supplies an insight into future events due to the constancy of “human nature.” Where we appear to part ways is in the definition of “money.” In […]

February 17, 2023 | Hot Inflation Reports Mean That Rate Hikes are Not Done Yet

The fight against inflation is far from over. The US Federal Reserve is committed to taking rates higher, even if the result is a recession or a severe market correction. Can this cycle end? This week there were economic reports showing that CPI inflation is not fading away. The markets were convinced that inflation reports […]

February 17, 2023 | Danielle on Monetary Policy and Markets

Danielle Park of Venable Park Investment Counsel presents her view on Federal Reserve policy, how it ties in with the policy of the Bank of Canada, and the leading indicators she thinks investors should be paying the most attention to.  

February 16, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: February Update on the Housing Bust

ome sales in Canada plunged by 37% in January, compared to a year earlier, amid rising inventory. Home prices dropped by 0.5% in January from December, by 12.6% year-over-year, and by 17.8% from the peak in March 2022, the 10th month-to-month decline in a row, according to the Canada Composite Home Price Index by the […]

February 15, 2023 | Consumers Getting Walloped

Good updates in this segment on larger trends in inflation, employment and consumption. Consumer Prices Accelerated in Jan, but Annual Growth Slowed. Here is a direct video link. Meanwhile, as shown below, half of Americans recently surveyed report that their financial situation is worse today than a year ago (dotted line below since 1975). Just 35% […]

February 15, 2023 | War & Capital Flows

COMMENT: Marty, I attended your coming out WEC in Philadelphia in 2011. Just about everyone I spoke with said the same thing. They all showed up to make sure it was really you and not some government stooge pretending to be you. I must say, when you put up the war cycle, I thought it […]

February 14, 2023 | Mining Expansion for Green Energy

MiningWatch Canada is estimating that 3 billion tons of mined metals and minerals will be needed to power the energy transition. All of this nonsense for climate change means that mining for minerals will escalate dramatically. There will be an incredible expansion in the mining industry for six critical minerals: lithium, graphite, copper, cobalt, nickel, […]

February 14, 2023 | Battery Innovation is Booming

Innovative, hard-working people worldwide are focused on ever more efficient, low-cost energy storage, and human ingenuity is winning. NEW Sodium, Aluminum battery is 15X cheaper than sodium or lithium. Here is a direct video link.

February 13, 2023 | China Raises Draft Age up to 60 Years Old

  Of course, China knows that the Biden Administration wants war. They are increasing their age limits for military service to up to 60 years old. Don’t get upset and think you will be too old for the United States and Europe. You can never be too old to die for your local politician. We […]

February 13, 2023 | Hard Landing in Motion

The speakers take a few minutes to turn on their cameras in this segment, but they get there, and ECRI’s economic cycle update is always worth a listen. Big picture context is useful in avoiding common financial mistakes. Lakshman Achuthan is being interviewed by Dale Pinkert during the F.A.C.E. webinar. Lakshman is calling the pullback […]

February 13, 2023 | Swimming Naked

Happy Monday Morning! Those holding their breath for an easing in mortgage rates were delivered some tough news last week. The Canadian labour market added 150,000 jobs in January, more than TEN times economist estimates. Let’s not forget that December jobs numbers were TWENTY times estimates. Just what the hell is going on here? Either […]

February 12, 2023 | The Coming War

COMMENT: Hi Marty, As it appears the US is marching toward war, what is notable this time, unlike what happened in the run-up to US participation in WW2, was the sense of isolationism in this country. Roosevelt was clearly walking a fine line, knowing there was no stomach for US involvement in Europe. US involvement in […]

February 12, 2023 | Is the U.S. in a Recession or Not?

  Only on Wall Street is fake news celebrated with such shameless hubris as we’ve seen lately. In the last few weeks, flouting a torrent of lousy corporate earnings reports, investors have gorged themselves on stocks.  This resurgence, doomed by recession and a grim outlook for earnings, was supported mainly by fake, or at least […]