ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
June 4, 2024 | The Major Fractal Wave of the Economic Confidence Model & 2032.95
Here is the Economic Confidence Model at the very high end to all the questions about how high up the fractal structure can be defined. We are in the grand Public Wave overall that peaks in 2032.85. This is the equivalent of the wave that picked the Peak of Rome in 175 AD. So here, […]
June 3, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, June 2024
Looks like the Aristocracy has finally stopped pretending to be the good guys. George Washington is not impressed: ‘250 Years Wasn’t A Bad Run,’ Says George Washington Looking On From Heaven Babylon Bee — Watching as the last vestige of the nation he helped found crumbled, George Washington sighed and remarked that America still had […]
June 3, 2024 | No Panacea
Happy Monday morning! Housing affordability, or lack thereof, is all the rage these days. Politicians from every colour of the political rainbow are rallying around restoring some semblance of price stability, or so they say. They’ve been working hard lately, through mass rezoning, tax breaks on new rental construction, and even housing catalogues. In fact, […]
June 3, 2024 | EPB Macro: Recession Signal Still Flashing
Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro offers valuable business cycle insight, and his latest educational video is worth watching. Eric warns that ” a lapse in patience is often a fatal flaw in using a business cycle process.” No truer words… In this video, we look into sequential signals of Business Cycle Recessions. Here is a direct video link.
June 3, 2024 | Do You Know How to Trade a Panic?
Knowing how to trade amid a panic is one of the most important skills a trader can master, and those who have done it correctly have profited in recent years. This is where the greatest amount of money is both won and lost. Few traders over the decades have really mastered this fine art. It […]
June 2, 2024 | Inflationary Perceptions
A quandary of writing a weekly letter is I notice myself saying the same things repeatedly. Something comes to mind as I write, I start to include it, and then I vaguely remember, “Wait, didn’t I say that last month/quarter/year?” I check and sure enough, it’s right there. Should I say it again? There’s no […]
June 2, 2024 | Market’s Insanity Is Tightly Scripted
Speaking of my fellow gurus, our switchboards have lit up to warn that something big is looming. Even the oddballs who think stocks are headed much higher seem to agree that a punitive correction is long overdue. And although each of us would like to believe that the arrival time of whatever dreadnought is coming […]
June 2, 2024 | World War III by 1st Week of September 2024?
Macron faces a serious collapse in confidence among the French and he too desperately needs to create war. He is pushing NATO to send in troops. They already have “advisers” there and Russia knows that the Brits are in Ukraine firing the missiles for Ukrainians are not competent. Likewise, Ukraine is incapable of sinking Russian […]
June 1, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 1, 2024
Let the cuts begin The Bank of Canada may announce a 25bps cut (from 5.25%) on Wednesday (markets are pricing a 75% chance), and the ECB is expected to announce a 25bps cut (from 4.50%) on Thursday. The Fed is not likely to cut rates at its June 12 meeting. The net speculative short positioning in Canadian dollar futures is […]
June 1, 2024 | The Impact of the Trump Verdict on our AI Computer – The Fall of the US in 8.6 years.
Juan Manuel Merchan is a Colombian-born American judge and former prosecutor. Most curious, he is NOT a formal judge, he is ONLY an acting justice of the New York State Supreme Court in New York County. How did a former prosecutor who is NOT a formal judge get assigned this case? This is not just […]
June 1, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 1st 2024
The Bottom Line North American equity markets responded favourably to the April core PCE Price Index report released on Friday. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the Index gained 2.8%, in line with consensus. This Index is the […]
May 31, 2024 | Deflation v Inflation v Stagflation – Misconceptions Clarified
Some people have a very hard time understanding that we are in a massive deflationary spiral; they think that rising prices simply means it is inflation and not deflation. Then they mistake stagflation for deflation and wonder why people are spending more on less. They only see prices, not disposable income, and certainly not economic […]
May 31, 2024 | German Property Price Crash Will Not Become a Crisis
Germany property prices are plummeting. Prices for commercial properties and multi-family buildings are dropping with insolvencies and foreclosures soaring. Even house prices are falling. The housing market in Germany is very different from the U.S., Canada and Australia, particularly in the terms and amount of financing available to buy a house for a first-time buyer. […]
May 31, 2024 | Japan Death Spiral Update: Now Inflation Is Spiking
Pretend you’re running a central bank and your primary job is to maintain a stable currency. Then assume that your long-term interest rates are around 1% and an important inflation measure is spiking to near 3%. What do you do? Normally, you’d raise interest rates to one or two percentage points above the rate of […]
May 30, 2024 | Total US Inventories Grew By 13.2 MB Last Week. Crude Prices Under Pressure
Bearish commentary from the Fed meeting notes and repetitive comments by Fed officials that they see no reason to lower interest rates in the near term has spooked markets. There have even been some officials saying that higher rates may be needed if inflation persists or goes higher. This is a big change from prior […]
May 30, 2024 | The Silver Secret
Two of the oldest commodities known to man, gold and silver, share a history dating back thousands of years. The role of gold has changed little through the passage of time. The same cannot be said for silver. In fact, it is the remarkable transformation in the usage of silver that has set the stage […]
May 30, 2024 | Running Bulls Need No Thinking
For a year now, overnight interest rates have been above 5% in Canada and America, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been falling. This has resulted in the highest real interest rates (overnight rate – CPI) in at least 23 years. While very hard on debtors, it’s favourable for savers and it’s long overdue. […]
May 30, 2024 | “Peer Reviews” And The Shrinking Trust Horizon
It’s now widely understood that science faces a “replication crisis” where attempts to re-do experiments frequently fail to yield the same results. In other words, a lot of cheating and/or incompetence is showing up in peer-reviewed journals these days, making it impossible for, say, doctors to know how to treat their patients or the rest […]
May 30, 2024 | Trump Found Guilty in NYC – As Expected
Former President Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, as a jury of 12 unanimously returned their verdict on May 30 after two days of deliberation. With this result, President Trump becomes the first ever American president to be convicted of a crime. Of course, he will appeal a […]
May 29, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, April 2024 Update. Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak in San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released today and dubbed “March,” is a three-month moving average of home prices whose sales were entered into public records in January, February, and March. So that’s the time-frame we’re looking at here. It reflects Rate-Cut Mania that commenced in November and peaked February 13, when the first of three […]
May 29, 2024 | What Completes a Phase Transition?
What completes a phase transition? Simple — capital inflow to the United States. For example, when oil was in the $10 range in 1998, we forecast that oil would rise to $100 by 2007.15. In court, the Department of Energy wanted us to develop a model, but Alan Cohen of Goldman Sachs blocked that […]
May 29, 2024 | Koo Explains Balance Sheet Recessions
Once the private sector is focused on paying down debt, economic growth is much harder to generate. Not just in China. Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute, explains why he thinks Beijing’s stimulus so far is not enough to get the country out of a “balance sheet recession”. Here is a direct video link.
May 28, 2024 | Commodities Trade Differently
All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, […]
May 28, 2024 | The Bond King Returns
For our first-ever in-studio Webcast with Dave, David Rosenberg hosts the “Bond King”, Jeffrey Gundlach, to discuss where the long-awaited recession is, his views on inflation o er the next 1-3 years, and his current thinking on the treasury market. The call, recorded on May 23, 2024, has been made available to the general public. […]
May 27, 2024 | The Theory of Non-Linear Intervention
Economics is well known for rather unrealistic theories based upon fundamentally unsound principles, such as the assumption that all things remain equal. Reality parts with academics whenever such assumptions are drawn to a foregone conclusion. However, greater false assumptions, which go unnoticed, lie at the foundation of so many theories in economics – primarily the […]