March 12, 2023 | Thousand-Word Equivalents
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging. Every Wednesday my Over My Shoulder members get a PDF file with some of the week’s most interesting charts, all selected […]
March 11, 2023 | US Blows up NordStream Pipeline in Act of War
The Neocons are in control of US Foreign Policy
March 11, 2023 | RIP Silicon Valley Bank: Shut Down by California Regulator, Taken Over by FDIC, Shareholders Bailed In, Insured Depositors to Get their Cash by Monday
Silicon Valley Bank, a California state-chartered bank that was uniquely exposed to the massive all-encompassing startup bubble during the Free Money era – a bubble that is now imploding spectacularly amid what is called a mass extinction event among startups – was shut down and taken over Friday morning by the California Department of Financial […]
March 11, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For March 11, 2023
Break something? The Fed has been raising interest rates for the past year to bring inflation down to its target range of ~2%. For the past several months, the market has been trying to guess “what would have to happen” for the Fed to either slow their pace of raising rates, stop, or start cutting rates. […]
March 11, 2023 | Loonie and Treasury Yields Diving Together
The US dollar touched a five-month high against the loonie this week (shown below since late 2020, courtesy of my partner Cory Venable) as the Bank of Canada held at 4.5% and hawkish talk from the US Fed increased odds of a US overnight rate of 5% on March 22. With recessionary data and credit […]
March 10, 2023 | Hoards – Even Gold
In times of economic distress, people will hoard their wealth. This is as true in ancient times as it is in modern times. I was called in about a hoard of gold – one thousand $20 St Gaudians gold coins all dated 1924 – uncirculated. As you see, I have a reputation for […]
March 10, 2023 | People We Should Know: Marjory Wildcraft
While we’re thinking about prepping, let’s segue from bugging out to staying put, with the following premise: In a world where we can’t trust factory farms, Big Pharma, or any regulatory agency, a family that makes most of its own food and medicine has a vastly better chance of surviving and thriving than one that’s dependent on […]
March 10, 2023 | EPB Macro: The Real Reason Home Prices are Falling
Well explained, as usual. In this video, we discuss why most of the market was unable to predict the current 2023 housing crash and how this housing meltdown could continue to unfold into the rest of 2023. Here is a direct video link. In January, the combination of a 15% price cut and lower mortgage rates […]
March 10, 2023 | Warren Buffett Speaks and Smart People Listen
The world’s most successful long-term investor, Warren Buffett, writes an annual letter to shareholders about investing and the recent performance of his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. This year’s letter came out last weekend, and like always, the short piece contains interesting ideas, comments and tips on investing. Why not take advantage of his wisdom, at […]
March 9, 2023 | Are We As Prepped As We Think?
My wife and I live in a place that’s pretty but hazardous. Earthquakes (there’s a big offshore subduction zone), forest fires (lots of trees), war (a nearby military installation), and civil unrest (a city a couple of hours away) are all at least theoretically possible here. And of course there’s the shared American problem of […]
March 9, 2023 | The Credit Suisse Latest Scandal
Credit Suisse has gone from one crisis to the next. Last month alone, the bank reported that customers have withdrawn $120 billion. A rogue employee stole the names of people with $50 million or more and probably gave that to tax authorities for a bribe – the second time this has taken place in Switzerland. […]
March 9, 2023 | Fed Hangs Tough
FOMC chair Powell disappointed equity markets this week with testimony reiterating his insistence that financial conditions must keep tightening (through higher for longer interest rates and ongoing balance sheet reduction “QT”) amid growing strife throughout the world economy. Indeed, Powell unapologetically explained (and he’s correct) that higher unemployment, lower economic activity and less financial speculation […]
March 8, 2023 | Why Most Americans Cannot Afford a Home – A Price Breakdown
Are you too poor for the basic human necessity of shelter in Biden’s America? The average home price in Q4 of 2022 was $535,800, according to the St. Louis Fed. If you live in a highly desirable area, expect to pay more. To simplify the math, let’s say that you are looking to purchase a […]
March 8, 2023 | DiMartino-Booth on the Economy’s Masked Collapse
Excellent data and cogent observations in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Boooth fom “Quill Intelligence” discusses the economy and what you can do to prepare for when the masked collapse happens. Here is a direct video link.
March 7, 2023 | Fed Rates Up into 2024?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that he sees higher interest rates ahead in his battle against inflation and their unrealistic 2% target. Many traders are now scrambling talking about how Powell said the Fed will probably raise rates more and possibly faster than previously anticipated. They are now taking that as a […]
March 7, 2023 | You Cannot Control the Wind
The pessimist complains about the wind. The optimist expects it to change. The realist adjusts the sails.
March 7, 2023 | Understanding Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates
As mentioned in the segment below, in America, more than 90% of mortgages are fixed for terms greater than ten years, and 95% of existing mortgages are at rates less than presently on offer. And yet, as shown below, since 1977, US mortgage payments to income are already at unaffordability levels seen in the last […]
March 6, 2023 | Colonel Douglas MacGregor & Source
COMMENT #1: I have been watching Colonel Douglas MacGregor (ret), on alt news sites. He is a former tank commander in the Gulf war and has worked extensively with NATO, before retiring. I love his direct commentary – so in a nutshell he says the following: 1. Ukraine has lost up to 250k troops and […]
March 6, 2023 | Extend and Pretend
Happy Monday Morning! Canadian banks reported first quarter earnings this past week. Those earnings provided an important glimpse into what’s shaping the nations housing market. Deep in the footnotes, CIBC reported that $52-billion worth of mortgages – the equivalent of 20% of the bank’s $263-billion residential loan portfolio were in a position where the borrower’s monthly payment […]
March 5, 2023 | How It Started/How It’s Going
If you read and pay attention to the world, you probably know the recent past pretty well. And if you’re a history buff like me, you also know something about the more distant past. In between, however, we often have a memory gap. Events from 5, 10, even 20 years ago slip out of mind […]
March 5, 2023 | Biden Administration Controls Britain & the EU
The Biden Administration is control the EU and Britain. They cannot independently expand the supply of arms to Ukraine, since the main decisions in this regard are still being made in Washington, as the former British Foreign Secretary William Hague has admitted. The Biden Administration has been completely usurped by the Neocons. They are writing […]
March 5, 2023 | Creating ‘Wealth’ Is 99% Inspiration and 1% Perspiration
Americans grew effortlessly richer last week when a two-day rally in stocks and bonds added many hundreds of billions of instantly spendable dollars to the economy. Most of it would have dropped into the hands of traders, speculators and portfolio managers. However, enough will trickle down to sales reps at Bijan, Dolce & Gabbana and […]
March 4, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For March 4, 2023
The DJIA hit a 4-month low on Wednesday but then bounced – as fears of “higher for longer”interest rates diminished The 2-year Treasury yield hit a low of ~1/10th of 1% in August 2020 as the Fed slashed interest rates to counter the Covid Crisis. Some commentators suggest those were the lowest rates in 5,000 years. […]
March 4, 2023 | How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps
The past few decades of unnaturally easy money have created a world of “moral hazard” in which a ridiculous number of people borrowed far more than they should have. Now, with money getting tighter, not just businesses and individuals but some governments are staring at the “suddenly” part of that old saying about bankruptcy. Japan is […]
March 4, 2023 | Housing Bust #2 Has Begun
This is the transcript of my podcast on Sunday, February 26, THE WOLF STREET REPORT. The housing market in the United States has turned down, and in some big markets very dramatically so. Other markets lag a little behind. That’s how it went during the last Housing Bust, that I now call Housing Bust #1. […]