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January 5, 2024 | Supreme Court to Decide if Trump Can Be Removed from Ballots
The Supreme Court has agreed to decide whether former President Donald Trump can be prevented from standing for president because of his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss. This is fantastic news, for we need the Supreme Court to decide this question simply for the sanity of the nation. The Court acknowledged they need […]
January 5, 2024 | Financial Cycle Behavior is Consistent
In June 1999, the US Fed began an 11-month rate hiking cycle that took the overnight rate from 4.75 to 6.5% by May 2000. Amid tech-mania-inspired irrational exuberance, the S&P 500 hit 1527 by March 2000, sold off into the summer, and rebounded to double top at 1521 by September on soft-landing forecasts. What unfolded […]
January 4, 2024 | Home Listings Rise as Sales Stagnate
Rebounding Treasury bond prices have lowered mortgage rates from their cycle high in October, but home prices at current mortgage rates are still painfully unaffordable for most. The Bank of Canada estimates that 45% of Canadian homeowners saw their mortgage payments rise in 2023, and 50% of mortgages initiated before March 2022 will face higher […]
January 4, 2024 | The Truth About Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies – An Unpopular Analysis
“Could governments seize bitcoin?” That is a common question, and much to the dismay of many, my opinion does not match the typical analysis. I have lost clients due to my honesty regarding crypto. I understand many firmly believe that Bitcoin will one day become the alternative to the USD, but it is unwise […]
January 3, 2024 | FL Surgeon General Urges a Halt to COVID Vaccines
The truth is coming out about the vaccines in 2024. Those living in Florida may have received a notification this week from Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo’s office warning the public that the vaccination is not safe. The FDA warned Lapado last month that questioning the vaccine would be considered “misinformation,” but he ignored […]
January 3, 2024 | 2024 Starts Rough
Assets bid up by irrational amounts eventually end up on clearance sale. Always. This is something to remember with the seven most expensive tech companies ending 2023 at their October 2021 price peaks (chart shown below, courtesy of All Star Charts), even while the Fed funds rate has moved from .25 to 5.5% and earnings […]
January 3, 2024 | Recession Watch: Slightly Lower Interest Rates Will Make Zero Difference
GDP is still growing, home prices are still high, and the unemployment rate is still low. But under the surface, the bad numbers just keep coming: U.S. manufacturing sector shrinks for 14th straight month in December (MarketWatch) – The new-orders index fell 1.2 percentage points to 47.1 in December (below 50 indicates contraction). Prices fell […]
January 2, 2024 | What Will the Fed do in 2024?
Everyone wants to know what the Federal Reserve will do in 2024. Of course, people want to believe that the Fed will slash interest rates in the New Year. The pundits cling to every word except when, at the start of the month of December, Powell boldly criticized the Biden Administration, saying that […]
January 2, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, January 2024
In December, some prestigious universities made the (in retrospect) horrendous mistake of letting their presidents testify before Congress. The result was not pretty — except for meme creators, who had a field day: But the Ivy League’s public humiliation wasn’t the only novel thing to happen in a federal government building last month, as staffers were […]
January 1, 2024 | Rigging Elections Worldwide?
COMMENT: Finland’s Presidential Election The only opposition candidate in the Finnish presidential election, Paavo Väyrynen, was prevented from standing as a candidate by a hybrid operation in which the state-owned postal service routed the supporting cards sent to him to Estonia (and the cards were not found until the deadline had expired). Finland’s political […]
January 1, 2024 | Corruption, Chaos, Conflict – Fourth Turning Erupts in 2024
“Americans today are increasingly polarized, as if they constitute two separate nations.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning “THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and […]
December 31, 2023 | The Ukrainian Financial Panic
I have warned that Zelensky will go down in history as the evil ruler he truly is. And for those who constantly want to pretend this is Russian propaganda, tell that to the 500,000 Ukrainian soldiers who are dead and all the broken homes Zelensky has left behind, along with the 8 to 10 million […]
December 31, 2023 | Can We Repeat 2023?
In these way-too-interesting times, there aren’t many publications that would trumpet a New Year’s Eve headline like the one above. It topped the front page of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, however, a tribute to the Sunshine State’s winning performance on the playing field. Two college basketball teams, University of Miami and Florida American University, made […]
December 31, 2023 | Looking Back and Forward
It’s that time of year when we start thinking about the old and envisioning the new. This has always been a special season for me, perhaps because of my unusual quirk of really wanting to divine the nature of the future—not just an investment in economics but in general. This week’s letter will be in […]
December 30, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 30, 2023
We’ve had a historic 2-month rally in stocks and bonds in anticipation of several interest rate cuts in 2024 due to falling inflation – what’s next? The leading stock indices (and many individual names) traded higher for nine consecutive weeks, with the DJIA and the NAZ 100 ending 2023 at All-Time Highs. The DJIA rallied ~5,450 points (~17%) from […]
December 30, 2023 | Next Strain of COVID Might Cause Heart Failure
Some scientists have warned a new strain of COVID-19 could cause potential heart issues. This new strain, known as JN.1, will reduce cardiac function in many people, according to the report. GB News has reported that Japan’s top research institute, Riken, has issued a stark warning that the ACE2 receptors that the coronavirus attaches […]
December 30, 2023 | NATO & Russia Moving Toward War
QUESTION: News from Russia is claiming there will be a major war with NATO. I do not understand if Russia is no longer Communist; what is the real issue that we have to move to World War again? SV ANSWER: It’s just time. Having met a Neocon face to face, all I can offer […]
December 30, 2023 | Thanks For a Great First Year
Hi everybody, On January 3, this newsletter will be one year old. Amazing how fast the time went by! Thanks for a great experience. Being part of this growing community and hearing your thoughts about the crazy world we’ve inherited has been both fun and educational. Going forward, there are several things I’d like to […]
December 30, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 30th 2023
The Bottom Line For 2024, look for North American equity markets to follow the U.S. Presidential Election cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average in the fourth year of the U.S. Presidential Election years since 1930 has a history of moving higher. Average return per period is 8.0%. However, “Mind the Gap”. The 8% gain also […]
December 29, 2023 | No Let Up
It seems to me that the forces at play in silver, both working for and against sharply higher prices, show no signs of letting up. However, common sense and logic dictate that such diametrically-opposed forces point to an eventual end to the stalemate – with the only real question being when. Since these opposing forces […]
December 29, 2023 | Gold Is Now Definitely An Impulse Buy
Recently, Costo began selling gold bars on its website (see Did Gold Just Become An Impulse Buy?). The bars were a big hit, generating revenues of $100 million in the most recent quarter. Now Walmart has opened its own Precious Metals Shop: Who’s next? If gold works for the biggest-box retailers, expect Target and other similar chains […]
December 29, 2023 | Here’s to Hitting Some Home Runs in 2024
Friends and Followers – Work hard and dream big. I hope that 2024 is the best year ever for you – and that many of your hits are home runs.
December 29, 2023 | Princely Finance and Taxation
One would have hoped that financial rip-offs committed by medieval princes would have been permanently shelved when liberal enlightenment ended the divine right of kings. Instead, the divine right of bureaucrats has forced too much in-your-face and in-your-wallet government. Today’s supposedly classless version of greedy royalty. But there is hope. The remedy lies in benign […]
December 28, 2023 | Bonds are Pricing Storm Clouds That Equities are Ignoring
Bonds are betting that falling inflation and rising unemployment will prompt policymakers to cut interest rates next year aggressively. After selling off in 2021 and 2022, the world’s bond market has rebounded sharply into year-end. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index (shown below) has risen nearly 10% over November and December, its best two-month run in […]
December 28, 2023 | States to Deem Silver and Gold Legal Tender
Several US states are considering legislation to reclassify gold and silver as money rather than commodities. Bills filed in Oklahoma and Missouri aim to eliminate state capital gains taxes on the sale of gold and silver, and to treat these metals as currency. Other states like Arkansas and Utah are also considering introducing similar legislation. […]