ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 6, 2023 | Treasury Market Sees Recession, Disinflation and Rate Cuts in 2023
Komal Sri Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies president, on Loretta Mester’s recent comments on the federal funds rate, what the yield curve tells investors, and more. Here is a direct video link. The chart below (courtesy of True Insights) shows the gap between the US Fed’s stated expectations for a 5.13% policy rate through the end of […]
April 5, 2023 | Lament – for the End is Growing Closer
QUESTION: How can one, specifically Trump be charged with covering up an unproven mystery crime that by definition he is innocent of (innocent until proven guilty)? And why does no one mention this. MC ANSWER: This entire thing is doing nothing but bringing down the respect of the entire legal system. I knew the New […]
April 5, 2023 | Credit Earthquake Reveals Fault Lines
The past year has seen the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in at least 30 years (see the chart below as of March 30, 2023, courtesy of Isabelnet.com). Base effects matter a lot; coming off a decade of constant QE and near-zero interest rates, the “normalizing” of monetary conditions this cycle is particularly acute at […]
April 5, 2023 | Criticizing Government Leaders is now a Crime #MacronOrdure
Free speech no longer exists. People are now scared to speak out against their government as if they were in the old USSR. Emmanuel Macron is an absolute tyrant and the French people have had enough. The protests in France over pension reforms receive little news coverage by design. The elite do not want the […]
April 5, 2023 | Climate Update
Headlines screeching about the “Earth Frying” are still being published, despite the 0.75 C drop since 2016. Which with the general flat-lying trend for almost twenty years is refuting the dogma about “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming”. The Satellite temperature record follows:
April 4, 2023 | JPM Again
A major development last week was the large amount of gold issued by JPMorgan over the first two days of the COMEX April contract. Total gold deliveries by JPMorgan of 14,326 contracts, including 10,682 contracts (1.07 million ounces) by JPM from its proprietary house account were the largest by JPM in history. This is big […]
April 4, 2023 | The 6th Wave – Do We Ever Learn?
QUESTION: Hi, Have you come across a period in history that at the end of the sixth wave, after the political system dies, during the next six waves, human mankind learned from its past errors and corrected it? ANSWER: Actually, the answer is NO. The fall of the Minoan Civilization brought in a dark age […]
April 3, 2023 | The US Begins to Arm Taiwan
The evidence of the coming global war is overwhelming. In a move that will prompt a direct response from China, the US announced that it would deliver 400 Javelin man-portable anti-tank systems to Taiwan. The delivery is strategically planned to begin during the second half of this year into 2024. Reports claim that this deal […]
April 3, 2023 | Eyes On The Prize
Bear markets can be psychologically trying as interim rallies may obfuscate ongoing downtrends. Markets are liquidity junkies and repeatedly anticipate that central banks will pause and return to easing credit conditions (typically a few months after a pause). As with tightening, however, the bulk of easing effects are not felt until many months after they’re […]
April 3, 2023 | Dissenting
Happy Monday Morning! Everywhere you scroll these days there is some debate about the housing mess, people arguing on social media, all levels of government pointing fingers and blaming each other for the housing crisis. “Vote for me and i’ll fix housing.” It is all political theatre. Case in point for those following along at […]
April 2, 2023 | FIAT – What is it Really!
QUESTION: Governments create their own sovereign fiat currency, to facilitate trade, among other reasons. So counterfeit is punishable, in some countries, by death, & at minimum, incarceration. Currency is supposed to be sacrosanct, created under the most exacting conditions. So what to do when your own gov’t engages in what is essentially officially endorsed counterfeit? […]
April 2, 2023 | What Blows Up Next? Commercial Real Estate
Commercial real estate — i.e., America’s $20 trillion of office buildings, warehouses, strip malls, and apartments — is all about financing. The lower the interest rate, the easier it is to justify marginal projects toward the end of a business cycle when only cheap money gets the deal done. That’s why the sector typically booms late and […]
April 2, 2023 | To Hell in a Handbasket
Well, they finally indicted the proverbial ham sandwich last week, adding to our long list of worries that the world really is falling apart. It’s as good a time as any to trot out William Butler Yeats’ The Second Coming as a reminder of where things are headed. This is arguably the most powerful poem in the English language, […]
April 2, 2023 | Disturbing Thoughts
Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town). These were fully independent banks, not branches of bigger ones. You could walk in and see the bank […]
April 1, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For April 1, 2023
Supercap tech stocks soar, leaving the rest of the stock market behind The Nasdaq 100 is up ~24% from its early January lows to a 7-month high; the S&P is up ~8%, the DJIA is up ~1.5%, and the TSE is up ~3.5%. AAPL and MSFT are up >30% from January lows; TSLA and NDVA are […]
April 1, 2023 | Trump v DeSantis
QUESTION: I thought you were supporting DeSantis. Are you switching to Trump? SH ANSWER: This is not about Trump even as an individual. A lot of people hate him for being arrogant. Put personal issues aside. If we are civilized, we do not condemn a person because we do not like him. All of that is absurd. […]
April 1, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 1st 2023
The Bottom Line North American equity markets are moving higher “on a wall of worry”. Analysts continue to lower earnings estimates for companies linked to broadly-based North American equity indices, The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are maintaining high regulated interest rates and have yet to signal when rates will peak let alone come […]
March 31, 2023 | Me, With Jason Burack and Kerry Lutz
Some of you have asked to see (or listen to) the podcast interviews I do. So here you go. I’ll start posting a few every week or two, with the caveats that for some reason this kind of self-promotion makes me a little anxious and — possibly the cause of the first caveat — some […]
March 31, 2023 | Trump & Likely Gag Order to Create Imprisonment
Trump will now find himself silenced and whatever Free Speech he once had, will now be stripped away from him like the rest of his constitutional and human rights. We are about to witness just how corrupt our legal system truly is. This is George Soros’s puppet. Alan Bragg will now show the entire world […]
March 31, 2023 | Commercial Real Estate is the Next Domino
If there is another shoe to fall for the troubled regional banks, commercial real estate is a likely catalyst. Reports arrive daily that many sectors, especially office towers, continue to struggle to meet their commitments. Regional banks hold most of the debt for commercial real estate. As of mid-week, the banking crisis was shuffled to […]
March 30, 2023 | Can We Really Last until 2032?
QUESTION #1: Martin, Since Trump was already not guilty of having the affair (to which Stormy Daniels admitted never took place), does that mean that the New York Court has indicted him on the charges of “being blackmailed”? DB QUESTION #2: Bill Clinton committed perjury. That was legal grounds to indict him and remove him […]
March 30, 2023 | Me, With Jason Burack and Kerry Lutz
Some of you have asked to see (or listen to) the podcast interviews I do. So here you go. I’ll start posting a few every week or two, with the caveats that for some reason this kind of self-promotion makes me a little anxious and — possibly the cause of the first caveat — some […]
March 29, 2023 | De-Dollarization Follow-Up: Three Crucial Videos
De-dollarization is a meme whose time has apparently come, as a lot of big video platforms devote entire shows to the subject. Here are three good examples from the past month:
March 28, 2023 | Buybacks Wobble as the Cost of Capital Leaps
Companies pushing up share prices with buybacks (while their executives sell personal holdings into the flow) have greatly supported stock prices (and executive compensation) over the past decade. The party was planned to continue in 2023 with a record $360 billion in buybacks authorized year-to-date. But, as usual, something unexpected happened on easy money street: […]
March 28, 2023 | What will Become Money Post-2032?
QUESTION: Hello Martin, Been reading your writings with keen interest for over 15 years now since while you were incarcerated. My question is: The way you paint a picture of the past economies going back hundreds and thousands of years through the discovery of coinage hoards is brilliant. How will a future “Martin Armstrong” from say […]