ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
January 23, 2024 | China Canary Warns About Global Economy and The Downside To Euphoria
Remember in 2007-08 when bulls were all in love with China and projecting endless growth and outsized investment returns as far as the eye can see? It turns out the business cycle was not repealed, and high valuations and euphoric consensus remain a reliable precursor to mean reversion and capital losses. Chinese stock prices have […]
January 22, 2024 | Alex Soros is a Nut Job – Implies Assassinating Trump
an insanity, funding the prosecutions against Trump, funding the case in Colorado to remove Trump from the ballot all in the name of democracy? They ignore culture, religion, and even family, force their view upon the world, and assume only what they know is best. Both he and his father think their Open Society promotes […]
January 22, 2024 | No solutions, Only Trade Offs
Happy Monday Morning! Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada are on deck this week. While they’re largely expected to remain on hold, Canadian households suffocating under the weight of higher interest payments will be looking for clues for when relief can be expected. The real estate market will be doing the same, it has […]
January 22, 2024 | Clamp Down on Short-Term Rentals
Limiting short-term rental properties increases housing inventory for primary occupancy, pressuring long-term rents and sale prices lower. This is a necessary part of helping to abate the housing affordability crisis. But it comes at the expense of highly leveraged owners and lenders who were banking on prices only going up. B.C.’s new laws on short-term […]
January 22, 2024 | Health Prepping, Part 4: Vitamin D Seems To Prevent Dementia
Vitamin D pops up in pretty much every general discussion of health maintenance and disease prevention. Having enough of it seems to help while having too little seems to cause — or at least associate with — everything from cancer to heart disease. So keeping lots of vitamin D in one’s bloodstream is kind of […]
January 21, 2024 | Trump Speaks Out Against CBDC
The leftist media cutaway Donald Trump’s victory speech after his Iowa victory. Some, such as Rachel Maddow who has no credibility, said it would be dangerous to air a live statement from the former president due to January 6. The truth of the matter is that they wanted to censor what he had to say, […]
January 21, 2024 | DoubleLine Markets Outlook 2024
The first 57 minutes of this presentation are a worthwhile macro overview. (The final 17 minutes are a micro dive into individual debt types for US investors and less accessible for Canadians and lay people). In his annual “Just Markets” webcast presented Jan. 9, 2024, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach among other outlooks shares his forecast […]
January 21, 2024 | Clashing Crises
“Two is better than one” is a nice saying, but it really depends on what you’re describing. Two hurricanes or earthquakes aren’t better than one. Just one disaster at a time will suffice, thank you very much. The same holds true for man-made crises like the debt fiasco we’ve been discussing. Last week in No Way […]
January 21, 2024 | Onward and Upward for Perhaps a Little Longer
When forecasting stock prices, it helps to view the market as a crazed creature driven by fear, greed, and most of all, stupidity. Of course, everyone but the “theme”-obsessed chimpanzees who purport to manage your money understands that the stock market’s heedless ascent into horrifying news is rock-bottom stupid. In this case, the very bad […]
January 20, 2024 | The Fix is In – Trump Goes to Prison
Let me explain something very important. George Soros’ son has come out and said that Trump would not go away unless he is in prison. I am not at liberty to say at this time, but the FIX IS IN and Trump will be imprisoned in the Washington, DC case. That is the plan. Soros […]
January 20, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 20, 2024
NDVA, MFST and META surge to new all-time highs; various other stocks also rise NVDA is up ~20% since the end of 2023 with a current market cap of ~$1.5 Trillion, or roughly half that of AAPL and MSFT. The powerful rally in Big Cap Tech took the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P to new all-time […]
January 20, 2024 | Employment Cycling Down
Unemployment spikes as recessions begin, but before that, early warning signs are fewer job openings and a shorter work week. The latest December jobs report showed spreading cyclical weakness. Year over year, Indeed job postings fell 15% in 2023. See Finding a New Job is Getting Harder.Under the hood, postings for lower-paying positions increased while higher-paying […]
January 20, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 20th 2024
The Bottom Line Led by the technology sector, U.S. equity indices (notably S&P 500 Index above 4818.62 and NASDAQ 100 Index above 16,767.86) moved to all-time highs on Friday.
January 19, 2024 | DOJ Admits Laptop From Hell was NOT a Conspiracy
The Department of Justice finally acknowledged that the Laptop From Hell did indeed belong to Hunter Biden. Apple provided the DOJ with information from the laptop years ago after compiling data from Hunter’s iCloud, leading to a multi-year propaganda campaign from the White House. This scandal is far more significant than the president’s son engaging […]
January 19, 2024 | Armed Conflicts Have Yet To Hit Markets
Investors are coping with a high degree of uncertainty in the world, with at least three armed conflicts active now. The Israel/Hamas war was the top concern. But now the Houthi situation in the Red Sea, related to the Gaza conflict, has become top-of-mind. And what about Russia and Ukraine? Will these conflicts spread? How […]
January 19, 2024 | Yield Curve Signals Recession in 2024
The US 10-year Treasury yield has been below the 3-month yield since November 2022 (14 months and counting). This rare yield ‘inversion’ has preceded each recession (grey bars) since 1982, with no false signals. As usual, equity bulls perpetually bet this time will be different. In past cycles, the US Fed stopped hiking when […]
January 18, 2024 | Canadian Home Prices and Rents Amid Much Needed Mean-Reversion
Canadian home prices are retreating. In previously hot areas, properties are selling up to 20% below 2022 prices, but nationally, the average sale price was just -11.4% in the latest quarter. After an outrageous 59% average price increase nationally between Q1 2020 and Q1 2022, the mean-reversion prospects remain big from here. As shown below, courtesy […]
January 18, 2024 | Argentina to Permit Provinces to Create Own Currencies
COMMENT: It is apparent that you are advising Argentinian President Javier Milei on economic theories. You said at the WEC that we would eventually see local currencies. If you are not informing him directly, they attended the WEC. He even warned about irresponsible provinces resulting in inflation. That is what you explained. DA REPLY: I […]
January 18, 2024 | Nobody will be Safe if they are Vaccinated
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are mRNA vaccines, which contain tiny fragments of the genetic material known as “messenger ribonucleic acid.” There have been deep concerns that this entire technology may have long-term implications for human society. There was a Swedish study that tested whether the vaccine’s mRNA could be converted to DNA and […]
January 17, 2024 | In The Air
Considering that JPMorgan has just come off a three-year deferred criminal prosecution agreement with the Justice Department for price manipulation (spoofing) in silver, the customers that JPM is accepting delivery for on the Dec. and Jan. contracts would most likely be users as opposed to speculators. That’s because it would be much harder to accuse […]
January 17, 2024 | McDonald’s Bets on China
My humorous post about McDonald’s celebrating Davos with the McKlaus bug burger deluxe was a pretend advertisement, for now, but McDonald’s is a World Economic Forum partner. This is relevant as McDonald’s is the second-largest private employer in the world. Their chains run across 100 countries, in nearly 40,000 stores, serving about 69 million customers daily. The […]
January 17, 2024 | Outlook Weakening Under Equity Market Optimsim
January US Empire Manufacturing reading this morning was -43.7, much worse than the -5 estimated and much weaker than during the 2008 financial crisis/great recession. Meanwhile, the analyst consensus is for S&P earnings per share growth of more than 10 percent over the next 12 months (red line below since 2000, courtesy of Mikael Sarwe) even […]
January 16, 2024 | World Economic Forum is Greatest Threat to Humanity
Klaus Schwab is a notorious control freak. He is applying that trait to the entire world. His World Economic Forum has issued its 2024 “Global Risks Report,” where he has now declared that the NUMBER ONE threat to humanity is no longer war and Russia’s invasion of a pretend sovereign state, terrorism, or even […]
January 16, 2024 | Inflation in Canada Refuses to Cooperate with Rate-Cut Bets
Just how tough it is to get inflation down after the easy battles have been temporarily won is now being demonstrated in all kinds of places, including in Canada according to the CPI data released today, and including in the US, where services inflation is in no mood to go away. Services is where the […]
January 16, 2024 | Casino Capitalism and the Derivatives Market: Time for Another ‘Lehman Moment’?
Reading the tea leaves for the 2024 economy is challenging. On January 5th, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said we have achieved a “soft landing,” with wages rising faster than prices in 2023. But critics are questioning the official figures, and prices are still high. Surveys show that consumers remain apprehensive. There are other concerns. On […]