ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 21, 2023 | U.S. Recession is Coming
A recession in the US is inevitable; probably coming later this year. The increase in interest rates that came from a surge in inflation guarantees that the consumer will reduce spending, probably pushing the economy into recession. Many analysts and economists are now accepting the inevitability of a new recession which may have started already. […]
April 21, 2023 | Canadian Stock Buyers Paying up for Negative Earnings
About 200 companies in the TSX Composite index are expected to report Q1 earnings over the next month. Although it’s typical for companies to “beat” lowered earning estimates, the earnings trend is recessionary, with a second sequential quarter of negative growth in 10 of 11 sectors. See Factset, Canada Earnings Season Preview Q1 2023: Analysts lowered […]
April 20, 2023 | Chicago Prepares for Second Weekend of Mayhem
Hundreds of teens stormed the streets of Chicago last weekend, wreaking havoc on the crumbling city. People were assaulted, shot, there was countless property damage, and Mayor-Elect Johnson completely sided with the criminals. Johnson made excuses for their bad behavior, and while a few arrests were made, Johnson has done absolutely nothing to prevent this […]
April 20, 2023 | Housing Market Takes Another Step Back: Home Prices Drop Year-over-Year for Second Month. Already Dismal Sales Fell
The median price of all types of previously owned homes – houses, condo, co-ops – whose sales closed in March, fell year-over-year by 0.9% to $375,700, according to the National Association of Realtors. This was the second year-over-year decline in a row since February 2012, when the market emerged from Housing Bust 1 (historic data […]
April 20, 2023 | Jacobson: Renewable Energy Here and Now
Mark Z. Jacobson’s latest book No Miracles Needed. How today’s technology can save our planet and clean our air lays out the facts on why and how we transition to more efficient, cheaper, cleaner energy. He offers an excellent overview in the presentation below and answers common questions and concerns at the end. Well worth listening! Understand the […]
April 19, 2023 | Recession Watch: Cars and Houses Join The List
Banks were already tightening lending standards before Silicon Valley Bank imploded. This chart is from Q4 2022: Since then the tightening has become a full-fledged rout. It’s now much harder to get a mortgage or a car loan, especially for less-credit-worthy borrowers in overheated markets. Meanwhile, interest rates are rising again, with the average 30-year fixed-rate […]
April 19, 2023 | DiMartinio-Booth: The Credit Crunch is Ahead
Believe it or not, the violent monetary tightening of the last 13 months has only started to be felt throughout the economy. Job losses are just beginning to drive the lagging unemployment rate up from cycle lows. As risk markets rebounded of late (again) in the prospect of coming rate cuts, the credit crunch lies […]
April 19, 2023 | The Richest Man in the World
Bernard Arnault has unseated Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos to become the richest man in the world. The CEO and chairman of LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton is estimated to be worth $235.7 billion. That is more than the entire GDP of some countries. Musk is now in second place with a net worth of […]
April 18, 2023 | New Home Buyers Penalized for High Credit Scores
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making some changes to Loan Level Price Adjustments (LLPAs) that will likely hurt those with good credit applying for conventional loans in the US. To ensure “fairness,” the agencies are helping “underserved” first-time home buyers by reducing costs for those with lower credit scores and less money for down […]
April 18, 2023 | Art Of the Collapse, April 2023
Societies under stress become erratic and often violent. But sometimes they also become more creative. Think back to the Vietnam War/civil rights era of the 1960s (for younger readers, those were scary, chaotic times) and consider the music that was created in response. Today’s world is, by many measures, a lot more ominous and stressful […]
April 18, 2023 | New Financial Mantra: “Stay Alive ’til ’25”
The sharpest monetary contraction in decades (US M2 below since 1960) has hit highly leveraged people and sectors like a meteorite from outer space. After twelve years of TINA reaching for yield and levered gambling, a new financial mantra is sweeping the land: survival. Real estate investors are increasingly responding to the math of higher […]
April 17, 2023 | Suckers Rally?
Happy Monday Morning! For the first time in a year Canadian home prices ticked higher. Monthly data published by CREA noted a very modest 0.2% month over month increase in national home prices. Source: Ben Rabidoux However, regular readers here know this has been ongoing for several months now. Prices in most major markets, across […]
April 17, 2023 | Welcome to the New Totalitarian One World Government
QUESTION: Marty, You are the only worthwhile analyst. You were alerting us a year ago that the IMF was creating its own digital currency. We have all these people claiming this will kill the dollar just as they proclaimed the euro when that was created. It is also well known that you were called in […]
April 16, 2023 | Spuds MacKenzie Is Rolling in His Grave
5 pm The toppy look of Anheuser-Busch’s stock chart (above) implies that the company is at least somewhat likely to lose sales because of its attempt to shove the wretchedly unlovely Dylan Mulvaney down our throats. Bud Light is undrinkable pisswater to begin with, so perhaps we should not be cheering on the frat boys […]
April 16, 2023 | The Coming Draft of 2024?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, The information you provide is so straightforward forward and it is clear you do not sell advertising on your site because you do not want any outside influence. That is really admirable when I realize you do not even require people to register or send them endless emails pitching some investment. You […]
April 16, 2023 | The Wall Was Too High, As You Can See
“The real hopeless victims of mental illness are to be found among those who appear to be most normal. Many of them are normal because they are so well adjusted to our mode of existence, because their human voice has been silenced so early in their lives, that they do not even struggle or suffer […]
April 16, 2023 | Inflationary Choices
Spotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t. Those who lived through the painful 1970s inflation developed a certain mindset. Similarly, the 2008‒2020 disinflation/low inflation period, accompanied […]
April 15, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Spring Selling Season in a Housing Bust
he spring selling season is now in full swing in Canada. So let’s see. Sales of all types of homes rose by 1.4% in March from February, after the 1.4% increase in February from January, so on a year-over-year basis, sales plunged by only 34% from a year ago, the smallest decline since September. And […]
April 15, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For April 15, 2023
Who’s going to be right, and who’s going to be wrong? Federal Reserve speakers continue to deliver “mixed messages” about future Fed activities/policies. Some speakers have been calling for a “pause,” while others (most recently, FOMC Governor Chris Waller) believe monetary policy needs to be tightened further. On Friday, Waller said, ” Because financial conditions have not […]
April 15, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 15th 2023
The Bottom Line Focus this week shifts to first quarter earnings reports. Financial services dominate the list of reporting companies. Responses to results released by JP Morgan and Citigroup on Friday were encouraging. As Jim Cramer noted on Fast Money on Friday, “I think that we will see a pleasant surprise”.
April 14, 2023 | Gold & The Dow Rally Together? OMG
COMMENT: Well, the goldbugs are wrong again. This claim that the stock market must crash and only gold will rise is as you say sophistry. It looks like gold and the Dow are rallying together. I can see how they are just promoting a cult-like agenda. Thanks for being objective MH REPLY: We became the biggest institutional […]
April 14, 2023 | Real Estate Speculators are Desperate for Interest Rate Cuts
Inflation moderated slightly in March but remains stubbornly high. The consensus is that central banks must cut rates later this year, but the latest CPI for March puts that type of wishful thinking into doubt. Will central banks hold the line on interest rates even as demands to cut rates grow louder? The CPI showed […]
April 14, 2023 | Rosenberg: Recession is Part of The Business Cycle
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins BNN Bloomberg for his reaction to Canada’s latest rate hike decision. Rosenberg adds investors should be focusing on what the BoC will say 6 months from now as the jobs market will be completely different. Here is a direct video link. Recessions are a regularly recurring […]
April 13, 2023 | Let Them Drive EVs
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is targeting gas vehicles in an attempt to reduce emissions. Their goal is to reduce carbon emissions by 10 billion tons before 2055 to “protect public health.” In turn, 67% of new personal vehicles will be electric by 2032. The average price of an electric vehicle (EV) is $64,338 and […]
April 13, 2023 | Grantham: This Crisis is Bigger Than Banks
We welcome back a very special guest, and that is billionaire and legendary investor Mr. Jeremy Grantham. I have been continuously amazed at how accurately Jeremy has been predicting future events over the last couple of years that we’ve been chatting. Still, it should be no surprise because he’s one of the few who have […]