ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
May 6, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For May 6, 2023
Wicked bipolar sentiment swings across asset classes this week The DJIA was upbeat early Monday, building on last week’s late rally and hit 12-week highs. But then, more bad news from the banking sector started to spread, and the DJIA closed at the day’s lows. The banking worries intensified as the days passed (KRE fell to two-and-a-half-year […]
May 6, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 6th 2023
The Bottom Line Sell in May and Go Away? Not exactly! The expression is based on expectations that U.S. equity markets peak in the first week in May and bottom at the end of October. The expression is partially true: Most of the gains by the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1950 […]
May 5, 2023 | The Silver Institute
The annual world silver survey from the Silver Institute reports, “No growth in the total supply (mining plus recycling) of silver and sharply increased demand growth of 18%.” The silver deficit of 237 million ounces is the highest in modern times. Nothing could be more bullish than using up more silver than is produced. Eventually, […]
May 5, 2023 | U.S. Government Risks a Damaging Default on its Debt
The looming fight over a statutory limit on borrowing by the U.S. federal government is getting close to a red alert situation. If the disagreement is not resolved the government will run out of money to spend. Could the government default on its payments? What would the consequences be? Source: Milwaukee Independent At the most […]
May 5, 2023 | 15-Minute Cities Will Enslave the People
“Make no mistake, it’s not about your convenience, and it’s not about saving the planet. It will be a complete impoverishment and enslavement of all the people,” German MEP Christine Anderson said regarding the push for 15-minute cities. She’s right. The 15-minute city is marketed as a futuristic town where everyone will live within 15 […]
May 4, 2023 | Bianco on What Bank Failures Mean for Overall System
Will spreading strife in banks prompt the US Fed to pause its tightening efforts this month? We will soon find out. Some worthwhile insights in this segment… We’ve had the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest bank failures in American history in the last two months, notes Jim Bianco. He discusses what collapse of First Republic […]
May 4, 2023 | The Dangers of 5G
The Environment and Cancer Research Foundation (ECRF) reported three incidents of otherwise healthy people developing microwave syndrome after 5G towers were installed near their homes or places of work. Microwave syndrome is a condition that can occur when people are exposed to high levels of electromagnetic radiation. These radiations operate at a frequency of 300 […]
May 3, 2023 | How Will The Aristocracy Keep What They’ve Stolen? Part 1
Say you’re a billionaire who’s drained about as much as you can from your employees (who are starting to unionize) and the financial markets (which are crashing as inflation spikes and credit tightens). With financial collapse and political chaos now approaching, your challenge has shifted from how to steal as much as possible, to how […]
May 3, 2023 | Monetary shock with negative impacts through 2023 and 2025
An April 2023 NBER paper warns that the Fed’s rapid tightening actions since 2022 were a monetary shock that has negative economic impacts for this year and next. Mind the lags. See Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 years; the conclusion: “Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts […]
May 3, 2023 | Republicans Fighting Biden’s Mortgage Madness
Republicans at the state level are demanding that Biden and the FHFA repeal the asinine new law that punishes Americans with high credit scores by forcing them to subsidize the mortgages of those with low credit scores. The Biden Administration has been attempting to control real estate for some time. In June 2021, Biden forced […]
May 3, 2023 | Powell Swats Down Rate Cut in 2023, Purposefully Leaves in Doubt a “Pause” for June Meeting
Fed chair Powell was bombarded by essentially the same question over and over again today during the press conference after the FOMC hiked its policy rates to 5.25% at the top of the range. Reporters were trying to nail him down: Has a decision been made about “pausing” the rate hikes in June? And he […]
May 2, 2023 | Crash Alert: This Market Has Really Bad Breadth
Way back in the late 1990s, as the dot-com bubble was in its blow-off phase, a well-known short seller named Bill Fleckenstein liked to tell interviewers that “The global economy depends on the US economy, the US economy depends on the US stock market, and the US stock market depends on 20 stocks, most of which […]
May 2, 2023 | Three Of The Four Largest US Bank Failures Have Happened Since March
A decade of near-zero policy rates allowed banks to boost profits by paying next to nothing on customer deposits from 2011-2021. Then, everything changed. Below is a list of the largest seven US bank failures by asset size courtesy of BankRate.com. Suddenly and all at once, three of the four largest have happened over the last […]
May 2, 2023 | Bank Failures – A Push for CBDC?
Monday saw the largest banking failure in the US since 2008 after First Republic went under, marking the third death of a US bank this year. Regulators took possession of the bank this Monday and JPMorgan Chase will acquire the majority of the bank’s assets and remaining deposits worth around $92 billion. First Republic Bank’s […]
May 1, 2023 | Cigarettes and Housing
Happy Monday Morning! We’ve talked a lot about the recent mismatch between population growth in this country and the ability to deliver enough new housing supply to not only meet demand but actually moderate price growth. Housing is all about supply and demand after all. We’ve tried to obliterate demand but it seemingly won’t go […]
May 1, 2023 | FDA Study Finds COVID Vaccine Causes “Spontaneous Abortions”
An 8-page study entitled, “PREGNANCY AND LACTATION CUMULATIVE REVIEW” reveals that the FDA and Pfizer knew that the mRNA COVID vaccines were dangerous for pregnant and breastfeeding women. The study was conducted at the request of the FDA, but the agency is still encouraging this demographic to take the vaccines. They tracked 673 women, […]
May 1, 2023 | Hoisington Review and Outlook First Quarter 2023
Hoisington Investment Management’s First Quarter 2023 Review and Outlook is now available; see Financial Cycles lead Business Cycles. The bottom line is that (lagging) inflation is receding with economic activity. Rising unemployment and higher government bond prices (falling yields) are par for this course as riskier assets keep losing lift. “…with low or declining economic activity, […]
April 30, 2023 | Fooling Us With Fake Stats: Household Net Worth
Towards the end of a financial bubble, the people who benefit from the bubble’s continuation — politicians hoping to be reelected, bankers hoping to complete the next deal, money managers talking their books — start touting “record household net worth” as a sign of societal health. But they’re wrong, for the following reasons: Deceptive leverage. Pretend […]
April 30, 2023 | Pivot to the Fourth Turning
The week we’ve been waiting for is here. The Strategic Investment Conference starts Monday, and we have a jam-packed schedule. This year is clearly the best SIC we’ve ever had in 19 years—a wide-ranging set of topics dealing with the issues that are most important to each of us. You really should join us. You […]
April 30, 2023 | Why a Permabear Is Certain We’re Going Much Higher
Like many of my subscribers, I have been waiting for the stock market to crash so that sanity might have a chance to recover its footing in the investment world. Permabears can always come up with good reasons to explain why a crash is imminent. Some use technical tools for this. Others cite public and […]
April 29, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For April 29, 2023
Without Megacap tech, stock indices have gone nowhere The broad stock market indices tumbled to new April lows Tuesday and Wednesday, but a strong surge on Thursday and Friday, fuelled by soaring Megacap tech, lifted the indices to new highs for the month. The Nasdaq 100 had its best monthly close since March 2021, with MSFT up ~40% […]
April 29, 2023 | Tolerance
April 29, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 29th 2023
The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on FOMC’s decisions on monetary policy released on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% increase in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.00%-5.25%. Of greater importance is guidance offered on the Committee on future changes to the Rate. The latest economic data point, March core PCE Price Index released […]
April 28, 2023 | Elon Musk Makes Another Gamble
Elon Musk, founder and CEO of the leading electric vehicle company Tesla, is making a possibly reckless gamble that will affect the automobile industry deeply. After several price cuts the most popular Tesla Model Y is now less expensive than the average new car in the U.S. Will Elon’s latest gamble pay off? Tesla’s […]