ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
June 14, 2023 | Powell on the New Hawkishness in the Dot Plot and on Inflation: “We See that it Tells Us that We Need to Do More”
Renewed hawkish sentiments are building up at the Fed for the second half this year. That’s what we saw today. While the Fed kept rates steady today “to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” the median projection in the FOMC’s infamous “dot plot” today calls for two more rate hikes this year, […]
June 14, 2023 | So What Comes Between Now & 2032?
QUESTION: Dear Sir, With regard to your recent blog post – [ https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/word-of-warning-they-cant-put-trump-in-prison-but-they-can-you-for-protesting/ ]… … you included the ECM chart depicting the decline and fall of the United States. You have an encyclopedic understanding of the cyclical rise and fall of empires. Seeing as how the USA presently constitutes a veritable empire in most respects, are […]
June 14, 2023 | Lagging Shelter Costs Mask Magnitude of Disinflation Unfolding
Shelter costs account for a whopping one-third of the US consumer price index (CPI). Ex-shelter, the other two-thirds of CPI components deflated 0.1% month over month in May and were a tame +2.1% year-over-year (close to the official 2% CPI target). Higher home and rent prices were significant factors in spiking inflation between 2020 and […]
June 13, 2023 | Putin Pleas for Peace
The vilification of Putin has been extremely successful, so much so that no one is listening to his words. The Russian leader recently spoke of conflict resolution. That is not something a warmonger hellbent on conquering nations would discuss. And yet, Putin seems to be the only world leader discussing the potential of resolving the […]
June 13, 2023 | Disinflation Offers Cause For Pause
May’s US CPI at 4%–the lowest since March 2021–has increased the prospects of a Fed pause tomorrow; a July hike remains possible. But as I’ve pointed out for months, pauses are not bullish; historically, they’ve preceded the steepest part of economic and market downturns. The good news for consumers (but not corporate profits) is that recessions […]
June 12, 2023 | The Rule of Law – Trump is Finish?
QUESTION: Marty; This seems that the onslaught against Trump is a desperate attempt fearing that he would stop the war and reverse climate change. I have been reading you for years. You have great sources but also a great insight into what is happening in this corrupt world. I used to question your warnings that […]
June 12, 2023 | Full Cycle Bearings
The S&P 500 is up 11% YTD (below in brown); the Nasdaq nearly 33%; and the TSX is +2.5%. Under the hood, a 53% year-to-date average gain for the seven most expensive US tech companies has done the lifting (in green below since December 2022), while the other 493 S&P 500 companies (in orange) have […]
June 12, 2023 | The Firm Grip of Tiff Macklem
Happy Monday Morning! The Scotia guy was right, and the Bank of Canada delivered with another rate hike. It was only 25bps but the signal sent shockwaves through the bond market. It’s incredibly rare for a central bank to raise rates, pause, and then start hiking again. Pauses are almost always met with inevitable rate […]
June 11, 2023 | The True Story of Hyperinflation
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, could you please explain what happens in technical terms from a capital flow perspective, when confidence is lost and hyperinflation starts to begin? For example Turkey. When Erdogan was elected i think you wrote that ever since the lira started dropping. So confidence in politics is key. Do you think one […]
June 11, 2023 | How Wall Street Thrives on Meaningless Data
The Biden Administration can count on Wall Street to celebrate meaningless economic data and bogus GDP growth with steep rallies, even as the visible economy continues to implode. It will become increasingly difficult to ignore signs of impending collapse, however, as anyone who lives in San Francisco could tell you. The city’s growing wretchedness is […]
June 11, 2023 | Storm Cycles
In economics we often talk about cycles. “Business cycle theory” is an entire academic sub-field whose basic idea is that economic history really does repeat itself. Not in every detail, of course, but as a recurring sequence of expansions and recessions. More broadly, some historians think human civilization goes through cycles. Often, they base this […]
June 10, 2023 | Hypocrisy of our Time
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Your economic confidence model is too good for the corrupt Noble Prize. I have been following you since 1983. Your research into the shift in confidence between the people and government is so in your face today, I can see why you said the dollar may not last beyond 2029. It is […]
June 10, 2023 | Becoming Invisible: How To Choose And Use A VPN
It’s creepy but true: Most of what we do online is observed by an ecosystem of predators ranging from marketers to hackers to foreign and domestic governments, many of which are out to trick, coerce, or rob us. There’s no one silver bullet to blind and/or repel them all. But there are tools that address specific threats […]
June 10, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For June 10, 2023
The S&P and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (the VTI) made new highs for the year this week The S&P is up >22% from last October’s low. The VTI is up ~23%. The Nasdaq 100 is up ~40% from October’s lows. The rally in the benchmark indices continues to be driven by big gains in […]
June 10, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 10th 2023
The Bottom Line: Watching for responses to bad news! Investors are confronted with a series of bad news events this week: News from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Members of the Committee hinted that they will “stand pat” with the current Fed Fund Rate at 5.00%-5.25% in anticipation of more “data points” (including the May […]
June 10, 2023 | Technology Enabling Brighter Future
With Canada battling horrible forest fires, there is good news: we have solutions to stop compounding the harm. Along with sending well wishes and support to those directly impacted, individuals are each called to evolve and help lead the change. Keeping ourselves apprised of rapidly advancing technology is a first step. The clips below help. […]
June 9, 2023 | Mission Accomplished?
A set of readily-verifiable facts have combined to point to a stunning conclusion, namely, that thanks largely to enough people doing the right thing, that the federal commodities regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, may have also finally done the right thing when it comes to the decades-old COMEX silver price manipulation. If my assessment […]
June 9, 2023 | The Bank of Canada Turns Hawkish Again
The Bank of Canada delivered a surprise rate hike to 4.75 percent on Wednesday, reversing an April 2023 decision that paused the interest rate hiking cycle. As a result, mortgage rates, prime lending loans and almost everything else in the debt business will get more expensive. At what point will the BOC stop its rate […]
June 9, 2023 | Recession Is The Policy Goal and It Will Be Achieved
A deflationary recession is the goal of central bank policies today. They’re determined to get there, and they will succeed. Make no mistake. Eric’s update is worthwhile. Eyes on the prize. (You can fast-forward through the channel’s crypto commercials). On today’s episode of On The Margin, Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Research joins the show […]
June 9, 2023 | What If Canada do to Quebec What Zelensky is Doing to Donbas?
COMMENT: Imagine Canadians bombing Quebec and outlawing the French language and French-speaking people. My guess is Quebec will eventually use this opportunity to separate from Canada! The propaganda is so thick!! Thanks from the Great White North for being a voice of Reason and Truth!! Jim M REPLY: Both of my Ukrainian employees have fled […]
June 8, 2023 | Canadian Wildfires – Climate Lockdowns Begin
There is something strange in the air. Are we to believe that what is occurring is simply the result of wildfires in Canada all occurring simultaneously? Official reports claim that droughts caused the conditions for the fires. Quebec said that the fires were ignited by lightning, Alberta admitted the cause of their fires is still […]
June 8, 2023 | Bank of Canada Strikes Again
Yesterday, concerned about lagging inflation readings and renewed froth in Canadian housing markets, the Bank of Canada came off its pause since January and announced yet another 25 bps hike. Now at 4.75%, the dramatic 450bps of rate increases since March 2022 are shown below from the BOC website, all in addition to quantitative tightening (liquidity withdrawal […]
June 7, 2023 | The Bank of Canada Un-Pauses, Hikes 25 Basis Points, Second Central Bank to Un-Pause on Resurging Inflation Fears
The Bank of Canada un-paused today, after having “paused” following the January hike. The pause had been widely ballyhooed as the end of the rate hikes and a pivot toward rate cuts. Those hopes have now been bitterly disappointed. Everyone is figuring out that this inflation isn’t just fading away on its own. Today it […]
June 7, 2023 | Gold & the Future
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, first I want to thank you for your independent analysis. In gold, all they ever say is buy – buy – buy. It seems if you ever say anything else, they ridicule you. Gold to them is a religion, not an investment. My question is that you have always said that the fourth […]
June 7, 2023 | Recession Start Date and Stock Markets
Recession Guessing Game — DiMartino Booth and Charles Payne of FBN Answer Questions. Here is a direct video link. The five most expensive tech companies now comprise 25.7% of the S&P 500 (a record since the infamous Nifty Fifty stocks in 1972). Rebounding 33% year-to-date, the tech-centric Nasdaq 100 (30.51% weighted in information technology companies and […]