June 30, 2023 | A Failed Coup in Russia But There is More To Come
The head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, staged a coup or mutiny, making accusations about Russian army leadership and the conduct of the war and threatening to bring 25,000 of his mercenaries to Moscow. But he backed down and is now in exile in Belarus. Is the coup a sign of more upheaval to […]
June 30, 2023 | Sober Time
After debauchery comes the hangover; this one is far-reaching. Demand for pricey timepieces from the top Swiss brands has cooled amid slowing economies, higher interest rates and the crash in cryptocurrencies, according to data compiled by London-based Subdial, a dealer in pre-owned watches. Prices peaked in February of last year following an unprecedented surge during […]
June 29, 2023 | Until Something Breaks…
There’s a sense among some investors — or at least among some commenters on finance-oriented podcasts — that the current equities bull market will never end because [fill in your preferred variation on “the Powers That Be won’t let it end”]. This kind of frustration is understandable. A thing that shouldn’t happen has been happening […]
June 29, 2023 | Repurposing and Repricing Real Estate
Between 2010 and 2022, increasingly slack monetary conditions added trillions to the global money supply, and it was all looking for something to do. Some flowed into ideas and efforts to improve life on Earth. A lot more was thrown at unproductive, counter-productive and mathematically challenged pursuits. Private and public investment funds ballooned on the […]
June 29, 2023 | Atrazine – “Turning the Frogs Gay?
Another conspiracy theory debunked. Alex Jones warned us long ago the government “was making the frogs gay,” and he was correct, but his delivery did not go over well. Robert F. Kennedy brought up atrazine while on the Joe Rogan podcast and explained the very serious matter. Atrazine is a legal herbicide used to kill […]
June 28, 2023 | Leaping Short-Term Rental Supply
A survey from rental site Vacasa showed that 90% of summer travelers this year changed their plans for travel to be more budget-friendly, including choosing driving over flying or choosing a cheaper day to travel. At the same time, active US short-term rental listings reached 1.4 million in April 2023, an 18% jump compared to the […]
June 27, 2023 | Strategic Relocation — Why, Where, And How
A lot of people are moving these days, for a lot of reasons. But one of the biggest reasons is fear. Some badly-run cities and states are accumulating debt at a rate that guarantees massive future tax increases and cuts in essential services. Others have normalized crime to the point that city centers resemble a zombie apocalypse. […]
June 27, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, June Update: 2nd Overall YoY Price Drop since 2012. Biggest in Seattle, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, Portland, Dallas…
It’s still spring selling season, when sales volume and prices nearly always rise on a month-to-month basis, and they did this spring too, but not enough, and compared to a year ago, the 20 cities in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released today, fell by 1.7%, the biggest year-over-year decline since 2012, following […]
June 27, 2023 | Credit Contagion Drives Distressed Selling in Real Estate
Thirteen years of record-low interest rates drove record public and private capital into all forms of real estate and related credit/securities from 2010-2022. Now, sharply higher interest rates and contracting credit on offer are bursting the bubble as forced sales rise. One broker estimates that 90 percent of office buildings in New York were distressed […]
June 27, 2023 | The Neocons & Endless Wars & Endless Corruption
I reported that the Pentagon admits that “due to accounting errors,” they LOST $6.2 BILLION! This is nothing new. The Pentagon has NEVER passed even one audit. Money simply vanishes and is often used by the Neocons to undermine geopolitics to further their own agenda. Then there is the sheer price gouging that is mindblowing. There is […]
June 26, 2023 | There Will be Blood
Happy Monday Morning! Perhaps one of the most fascinating stories of the year has been the resiliency in the nations housing market. Prices have bounced sharply since the depths of the 2022 bear market, surprising even the housing bulls. This is no bueno for the Bank of Canada who is desperately trying to reign in […]
June 26, 2023 | Taleb on Looming Crisis: The Risk is in Front of Us
Nassim Taleb, Universa Investments scientific advisor and author of ‘The Black Swan’, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the markets and economy, why a bubble is looming, the state of cryptocurrency, and more. Here is a direct video link.
June 25, 2023 | Migration & War = Deadly Disease Cycle
The border crisis that we have in the United States is part of the cycle of disease that our model has been projecting. In late May, Sarasota County, Florida, health officials confirmed that they had identified a case of locally transmitted malaria. Then a second confirmed case appeared on June 23 rd in Texas, discovered in […]
June 25, 2023 | We’ll Look Back Fondly on Inflation
Inflation is being crushed from the system by vastly larger forces of deflation that have been lurking for decades. Although we might have expected the trillions in funny money that were force-fed into the U.S. economy during the covid era to have a longer-lasting effect on prices, inflation never had much of a chance. With […]
June 25, 2023 | NATO’s Vision for 2030 – War, War, War
This is the opening to NATO’s vision for 2030. They recognize that with the passage of time, they are losing relevance. This is behind this entire Ukrainian expansion of war. It is also not just the Neocon’s dream of a lifetime; it is the last-ditch effort to make NATO relevant for the next two generations […]
June 25, 2023 | A Funny Kind of Recession
I’ve often thought it would be fun to convene a therapy group of weather forecasters and economic forecasters. Both face the same frustration: Everybody wants a clear, simple answer they can’t possibly give, because they don’t know. Then they get blamed for being wrong anyway. In both weather and the economy, the best we can […]
June 25, 2023 | Recessions Come with Bear Markets
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments. He says a recession certainly will happen, and we’re at or near the end of the tightening cycle. Here is a direct video link. Caveats noted on the Japan comment: global decoupling is not a thing, […]
June 24, 2023 | Never Again Campaign
“Never Again” is a new campaign by the Global Health Project. These doctors are now admitting that they broke the Hippocratic Oath by supporting the COVID agenda. They admit that they steered the people wrong, pushed forth dangerous unstudied vaccinations, and lost the public’s trust. It is too little, too late. “Remember that […]
June 24, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For June 24, 2023
Soaring stocks “pause” AAPL closed at new All-Time Highs this week, but many other stocks and the leading indices took a “pause.” Perhaps there was too much talk about “over-bought” or worries that corporate buybacks are going into their quarterly blackout period. Or maybe it was worries about institutional rebalancing next week or mounting “evidence” that […]
June 24, 2023 | Housing Inflation Keeping Central Banks Hawkish
Falling average hours worked is leading consumer demand lower while housing inflation is keeping central banks hawkish for longer than in past cycles. Nasty combo. Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities head of equity strategy, and Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management chief economist and strategist, join ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the case for a recession in […]
June 24, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 24th 2023
The Bottom Line Investors are expected to enter into a “holiday mood” this week prior to national holidays on July 1st in Canada and July 4th in the United States. Volume in equity markets on both sides of the border typically drops as the week progresses. Price volatility is higher than average. Broadly based North […]
June 23, 2023 | Core CPI in Japan Worst since 1981. Food Inflation Worst since 1976. But Energy Prices Plunge
The Bank of Japan has been the total outlier in its reaction to the surge of inflation: It’s still practicing QE under the guise of yield curve control, which keeps the 10-year yield below 0.5%; and it’s still pushing its short them yields below 0%. It’s clearly doing this on purpose, because these folks aren’t […]
June 23, 2023 | Which Of These Currencies Will Collapse First?
Inflation was supposed to moderate this year. But in the UK, EU, and Japan that’s not happening. Here’s the UK… … the EU… Euro rallies after ECB raises rates and inflation forecasts European policymakers now expect core inflation to average past the 5% mark, while in March projection this forecast was only at around 4.6%. […]
June 23, 2023 | The Bear Market is Still with Us
The bear market that started in early 2022 is still intact. Many pundits are making noise about a new bull market, but it is best to ignore those people. The stock market has not completed its full correction yet. What indicators confirm the bear market? A normal bear market lasts until valuations are reasonable again, […]
June 23, 2023 | Near Half of New Canadian Mortgages Have Amortizations >30 Years
Near half of all new Canadian mortgages taken out in the first quarter of 2023 had amortization lengths longer than 30 years. In addition, as interest rates have leapt since 2022, a significant number of existing variable-rate mortgage holders have paid less than the interest owing, causing principal balances, repayment years and financial risk to […]