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October 21, 2024 | Jumbo Cuts
Happy Monday Morning! Some good news on the inflation front. Headline CPI cooled to 1.6% in September, slower than the median estimate of 1.8% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. For the first time since February 2021 inflation is now below the central bank’s 2% target and has been within its target range for nine […]
October 20, 2024 | Frozen Homes
Official inflation data, while imperfect in many ways, at least has the advantage of being consistently imperfect. This lets us make comparisons across time. The magnitude may be off, but the direction is usually right (except at unusually sharp turns like 2020). Currently it shows most prices moving back toward “normal” with one prominent exception: housing, which […]
October 20, 2024 | Investors Go All-In for Trump
Wall Street has gone all-in for Trump, piling up such extravagant gains in the last few weeks that one might wonder what bold miracles investors expect of him. More likely, unfortunately, is that within a year or two of taking office, he will be overwhelmed by the collapse of a financial bubble that required only […]
October 20, 2024 | Can Biden Declare Marshal Law To Suspend the Election?
QUESTION: Marty, you are a constitutional scholar. I heard your father was quite brilliant and defended the Constitution, even going against McCarthy. I would like to hear your legal opinion on the topic: Can Biden declare Marshal Law like Zelensky and postpone the election? DR ANSWER: YES! The question of the constitutional status of […]
October 20, 2024 | Time To Overwhelm Them With Thought Crimes
“Thoughtcrime was not a thing that could be concealed for ever. You might dodge successfully for a while, even for years, but sooner or later they were bound to get you”. – Orwell’s 1984 “They do not even need evidence to condemn someone they believe is guilty”. – Orwell’s 1984 Many people have joked that […]
October 19, 2024 | Michael Moore Shows Why The USA Cannot Survive as One Nation
I never had an opinion of Michael Moore one way or the other. But I fear that his writing to President Biden claiming he has absolute immunity because of the ruling with respect to Trump sadly illustrates just how ignorant many Democrats are and how hateful they have become. The Immunity Ruling with respect […]
October 19, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 19th 2024
The Bottom Line Better than consensus third quarter results released last week by 14% of S&P 500 companies prompted North American equity indices to advance to all-time highs. Analysts were less convinced. They lowered third quarter consensus earnings estimates again. Frequency of quarterly corporate reports ramps up this week. Another 112 S&P 500 companies (including […]
October 18, 2024 | The U.S. Election is Too Close To Call
The U.S. election on November 5 2024 is touted as a major event, as the policy and style differences between the two candidates are unusually large. Given how close the polls are — within the margin of error — there is a high degree of uncertainty and trepidation over this vote. Who will win? The […]
October 18, 2024 | Silver Tests $33 — For the First Time In a Decade
The standard silver pitch is that when gold goes up, stackers note the immense number of silver coins they can get for the price of a single gold Krugerand or Maple Leaf. Then they proceed to pile into the cheaper metal, sending its price up by multiples of gold’s subsequent percentage gains. But this time […]
October 17, 2024 | WTI Drops US$8/b Over Last Week As Israel Agrees Not To Attack Iran’s Nuclear Or Energy Facilities
Military tensions are picking up around the world and any miscalculation could expand the war fronts. It is not just the Middle East and Ukraine. China and North Korea are flexing their military muscles and worrying their neighbors. US pressure on Israel has succeeded in getting the IDF to agree not to attack Iran’s nuclear […]
October 17, 2024 | Financial Risk at Historic Highs–What’s Your Plan?
US Auto loans that were more than 90 days delinquent in the second quarter were the highest since the second quarter of 2010 (blue line below since 2004, via Arbor Research and The Kobeissi Letter). Auto loan debt held by Americans rose to a record $1.63 trillion (red line), 92% above 2008 levels, while auto […]
October 17, 2024 | Return Hubs – Brussels Attempts Damage Control Over Migrant Crisis
The European Union is beginning to change its stance on its open border policy. Over 1.14 million sought asylum in the EU last year, a completely unsustainable population spike. European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has faced harsh criticism from member states throughout the bloc who are calling upon Brussels to address […]
October 16, 2024 | Ukraine the Origin of World War III
QUESTION #1: Why does the West hail Zelensky when I have family in Ukraine who see him as a traitor to Ukraine? Asking Turkmenistan to arrest Putin is asking them to commit suicide. Zelensky is a war criminal, for he takes orders from the West against his own people. Your 172-year cycle that turned […]
October 16, 2024 | Retailers Feeling The Pressure of Cash-Strapped Consumers
Major retailers have noted a pullback in consumer spending, and same-store traffic is down across restaurants this year, particularly at sit-down chains. Most are ramping up discounts and promotions to lure customers. See, After years of Increases, Companies are Rolling Back Prices: Retailers, restaurants and other companies spent years lifting prices. Now that consumers are closing […]
October 15, 2024 | Results are in: ‘Easy’ Money Policies Build Debt, Hurt Productivity and Affordability
The results of the easy money experiments from 2009 to 2022 are widely evident: they yielded record indebtedness and unaffordable housing. This was especially true in Canada, where the median household debt to income was 175% in the second quarter of 2024 from 156% in the fourth quarter of 2008. At the same time, the […]
October 14, 2024 | Is Frugality a “Skill”?
Obviously, one of the best ways to prepare for hard times is to avoid unnecessary spending in good times. So being able to do that across an entire lifestyle might be considered a core prepping skill. Charles Hugh Smith just posted an essay on this concept. Here’s an excerpt: A Core Skill Going Forward: Frugality I ended […]
October 14, 2024 | The Four Powers Aligning
COMMENT: Marty, you have been spot on. North Korea, China, and Iran are banning together with Russia. What you have laid out is basic common sense. The ancient saying the enemy of my enemy is my friend. I don’t understand how common sense seems to be no so common certainly among our journalists who […]
October 13, 2024 | The Drone Wars
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you previously said the US would find it difficult to actually defend Taiwan. I would greatly appreciate if you could elaborate on that scenario. HJ ANSWER: If you look at all of the fighter jets that the US could deploy from the F15, F16, F22, and F35s, they have a serious drawback […]
October 13, 2024 | Kamala Unwinding
[I can’t stomach news reports that take Kamala Harris’s candidacy seriously, especially articles suggesting with brazen implausibility that she is polling dead-even with Trump in some important swing states. Fortunately for those creeped out by all the tilted campaign coverage, my colleague James Howard Kunstler has compressed everything you need to know about the election into a […]
October 12, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for October 12, 2024
The leading North American stock indices are at record highs The S&P has closed higher for 9 of the last 10 weeks, rising ~14% from its early August lows. The index is up ~22% YTD, ~41% from year-ago lows, and ~65% from two year-ago lows. It has closed higher for 11 of the last 12 […]
October 12, 2024 | Is Frugality a “Skill”?
Obviously, one of the best ways to prepare for hard times is to avoid unnecessary spending in good times. So being able to do that across an entire lifestyle might be considered a core prepping skill. Charles Hugh Smith just posted an essay on this concept. Here’s an excerpt: A Core Skill Going Forward: Frugality I ended […]
October 11, 2024 | More Great Gold Miner Earnings Reports Coming Soon
A rising gold price boosted second-quarter (June-August) earnings for the best-run gold miners. See: Q2 Gold Miner Earnings Might Liven Up the Summer Doldrums Portfolio Update — Q2 Earnings Edition And earnings for Q3 — which ended on September 30 and will be reported shortly — should be even better, thanks to continued gains for […]
October 11, 2024 | Scientists Receive Nobel Prizes Amid Controversy Over AI Research
Canadian physicist Geoffrey Hinton and three other scientists received Nobel Prizes this week for work related to advances in artificial intelligence. Their discoveries have the potential to revolutionize mankind’s ability to cure disease. But these advances in AI come with a warning from one of the recipients. Geoffrey Hinton, 76-year-old University of Toronto physicist and […]
October 10, 2024 | Mainstream Financial Plan: Double or Nothin’
This morning, US data showed a larger-than-expected increase in people applying for jobless benefits—258k for the week of October 5, versus 230k expected—a 14-month high. There was also a .2% month-over-month increase in headline CPI, double the .1% expected by the consensus. Fewer jobs and a higher cost of living remain an increasing challenge for […]
October 10, 2024 | Cycle of War Technology & Fate of the EU
QUESTION: I hear that the F16, introduced in 1978, is obsolete in today’s modern war. Do you have any information on this? Have we entered the day when swords are replaced by guns? PH ANSWER: The F-16 is a legendary warplane. You are correct. It was first introduced in 1978. It was a versatile […]