ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 26, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 26th 2023
The Bottom Line High and rising interest rates on long term North American Treasuries have “put a lid” on North American equity markets. Comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday echoed comments by the Bank of Canada that central banks in North America are “prepared to raise rates further”. The stage is set for […]
August 25, 2023 | Disobey and Live – Maui Fire Barricades
There are a number of factors that do not add up regarding the Maui fires. I am refraining from speculating, but based on the facts, the government allowed people to die. I reported that the fire hydrants were dry and the top official refused to use water reserves. The notification system and sirens mysteriously failed, […]
August 25, 2023 | Climate Chaos To Change Thinking Around Housing
I have been following this issue for some time, and it’s not yet being widely factored into asset allocation decisions. How much of our net worth will we want in buildings that can’t be insured or where premiums go parabolic? How can we reduce and self-insure our risk in a world with hard-to-get or unaffordable […]
August 25, 2023 | Solar Energy Capacity For Electricity Production Soars Worldwide
The pace of installations for new solar electricity production continues to surprise everyone, even industry insiders. Close to 400 gigawatts of capacity will be installed worldwide in 2023, with forecasts for as much as 563 gigawatts in 2025. Solar is now cheap and easy to install, especially on residential rooftops where permitting is not a […]
August 24, 2023 | How to Socialize a Nation – Divide & Conquer
COMMENT: The Other Plan? | Trudeau, his Dad Pierre Elliot and Selfsame Joe Biden Socialist Goals. | “Every Time I Think of it I Get Mad.” “Many Years Ago there was a book entitled Social Purpose for Canada, each chapter was written by a different person, one chapter was written by Pierre Elliot Trudeau. And […]
August 24, 2023 | BRICS Summit Ends With a Bang — And a Tease
In a nice bit of misdirection, the BRICS countries distracted the West with hints of a “gold-backed currency” at their August 22 – 24 meeting. Then, while everyone was looking over there, they did something potentially even bigger by admitting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as members, with Iran, Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia […]
August 23, 2023 | Gold Seasonality, Part 1: Are We There Yet?
Seasonality is an investment thesis that shouldn’t work. It’s just too easy. If there are regular and recurring fluctuations in demand for something, traders will simply front-run the process, canceling out the price impact. Right? Apparently not always. Gold and silver tend to languish in spring and summer (recall the old saying “Sell in May […]
August 23, 2023 | Society for 2032
History repeats largely because those in power NEVER consult history before they hand down some decree. The scheme behind letting all these migrants infiltrate the country is that they will vote Democrat and keep them in power forever. As I have said before, I was asked by Hong Kong to negotiate with Australia to […]
August 23, 2023 | Home Sales Plunge Further as Demand Vanished at these Prices. Even Cash Buyers Pull Back. Supply Keeps Rising
Sales of previously owned homes (houses, condos, and co-ops) fell further, by 2.2% in July from June, to a deep-dismal seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.07 million, the lowest since January, which had matched the March 2020 lockdown low, which had been the lowest since the Housing Bust in 2010, even as the median […]
August 22, 2023 | Wage Inflation Is a Thing Now, Part 1
Back when the US was a functional country, wages and corporate profits rose more or less in tandem. That is, each group tried to steal all the money but in the end had to compromise and settle for only half. It was contentious but manageable, and it allowed a broad, stable middle class to emerge, […]
August 22, 2023 | Ticking Time Bomb
I’m still convinced a “Code Red” market emergency exists in COMEX silver based upon the extremely large positioning changes for the reporting week ended July 18. That week, there was massive managed money buying and commercial selling. I concluded silver would either explode in price or get smacked down by commercial price rigging and […]
August 22, 2023 | Tougher Times For The Masses
Today’s home affordability is the lowest on record, thanks to elevated prices and the highest mortgage rates in 23 years (US home affordability index below since 1997 courtesy of Goldman Sachs). Not to mention leaping insurance, utilities, property taxes, maintenance, and interest costs on the many other debt types. These are tough times for the masses. In […]
August 22, 2023 | Digital IDs in China – THE GREAT RESET IS HAPPENING NOW
@global_freedom_movement2♬ original sound – Global_Freedom _Movement #2 The mainstream media does not want the West to know what is happening in China because the people would be frightened and begin to rebel. The media wants you to believe that China is “experimenting” with digital IDs that are linked to bank accounts and impacted by social […]
August 21, 2023 | Biden Selling Border Wall Supplies to Ensure it is Never Constructed
It could not be any more evident that the Biden Administration is allowing a full-scale invasion of the US from the southern border. Trump asked for around $4 billion to secure the US-Mexico border wall, a small fraction of what the US is now spending on maintaining the countless illegal aliens. New York alone estimates they […]
August 21, 2023 | Historic Opportunity Now in the Making
As the riskiest asset prices rebounded into July, most strategists and investment advisers proclaimed the all-clear (as usual), and bullish sentiment roared back near levels seen at the cycle top in early 2021 (shown below courtesy of The Daily Shot). This is typical behaviour: market sentiment moves in lockstep with price. As stocks have […]
August 21, 2023 | Affordability Hell
Happy Monday Morning! Headline CPI inflation surprised to the upside this past week, pushing back up to 3.3% and well above market expectations of 3%. However, those who have been following along here will know the importance of base effects. When headline inflation fell to 2.8% last month we were quick to highlight some research […]
August 20, 2023 | Govt to Spend $1 Billion on Electric School Buses
The Clean School Bus Program has been funded with a $5 billion grant from the Inflation Reduction Act that should be appropriately named the Climate Change Act. Around $1 billion of this will be spent on electric school buses. As with all spending plans, the budget quickly jumped from $500 million to $1 billion after the EPA […]
August 20, 2023 | Thoughts on Rent, the Fed, and Bonds
[The following was sent out to clients in late July by my friend Doug Behnfield, a wealth manager and senior vice president at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management in Boulder, CO. Long-time followers of Rick’s Picks will be familiar with Doug’s work, since his thoughts have appeared here many times. I have always considered him not only one of […]
August 20, 2023 | Storms and Patterns
Everything about human life has a rhythm. It is literally built into our bodies: Your heart beats in a repeating pattern that keeps you alive. Your breath is another pattern. Repetition is natural for all of us individually and for the societies we create together. Every society has its own rhythms and traditions. But there are larger, […]
August 20, 2023 | Grantham: Recession “Running Perhaps Deep into Next Year”
This is a teaser preview of the full interview that has not yet been released. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of the Boston-based investment firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), predicts a US recession “running perhaps deep into next year.” Grantham says we have entered a period of “moderately higher inflation.” Grantham speaks in an interview taped […]
August 20, 2023 | Credit Crisis: Curve and Spreads: Both Now Warning
In March the Yield Curve inverted as short rates rose above long rates. We use the 2s to 20s and the inversion has always been followed by a recession, without exception. The warning becomes more acute as the Curve reverses, which it is doing now. A slowing economy reduces the ability to service debt with […]
August 19, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 19, 2023
A quick report this week – my Golf Club Championship demands my participation! Interest rates keep rising The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 16-year high of>4.3% this week. Short rates are at 20+year highs, 10-year reals touched 14-year highs, UK Gilts touched 25-year highs, and Canadian 10-year government bonds hit 13-year highs. A stronger-than-expected US economy, […]
August 19, 2023 | China’s Great Slowdown
A glut of Chinese homes and goods, with falling domestic consumption, suggests less demand for global commodities and a deflationary impulse through the rest of the world. China’s momentum is fading after decades of supercharged growth. A much anticipated post-pandemic recovery appears to have flopped, with data flashing warning signs across the economy. The government’s […]
August 19, 2023 | The Massive Online Frauds Are Pouring In From Many Companies
The number of frauds coming in is endless. One is claiming to be the Post Office, and you must log in and pay $5 to get your package. The GEEK Squad is a popular one. I even get them from pretending to be FedEx and CVS. They typically say your card will be charged like […]
August 19, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 19th 2023
The Bottom Line Intermediate swing traders looking for continuation of an upward trend by North American equity markets were rewarded for their patience last week. The S&P 500 Index at 4,369 moved closer to technical support near 4,200. The TSX Composite Index at 19,818 moved closer to technical support near 19,400.