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September 2, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 2, 2023
The Fed is likely done raising rates in 2023 Markets were focused on US employment data during the last week of summer, and after the JOLTS, ADP and BLS reports, the chances of another rate increase from the Fed this year fell to ~30%. Since April, short-term and long-term interest rates have been trending higher in Canada […]
September 2, 2023 | What Happened To Canada?
On Greg Hunter’s show last week I said something like: If five years ago you’d asked me to name the country least likely to go authoritarian, I’d have picked Canada. It always seemed like a well-run place full of mature people with good intentions. So it’s a shock to see what’s happening up there. To which a […]
September 2, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 2nd 2023
The Bottom Line A word of caution! North American equity indices have a history of reaching a short term peak near the middle of September followed by the weakest period in the year to the second week in October. Charts on the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average show a similar pattern.
September 1, 2023 | Biden Spent 40% of Presidency on Vacation
Karine Jean-Pierre must take a deep breath when Peter Doocy enters the room, hence why she rarely calls on him for a question. Doocy has become emboldened with his inquiries and is one of the only journalists willing to ask the tough questions. Doocy’s latest doozy: “It seems like the hurricane response so far is […]
September 1, 2023 | Higher Rates Freezing Mobility and Consumption
About seventy percent of Canadian mortgages were taken out over the last few years with a 5-year fixed term and an ultra-low interest rate that averaged 2.79%. In 2020-2021, some 40% were taken at floating rates that averaged 1.65%. Floating and new fixed-term rates are now above 6%. Eighty-five percent of US home mortgages have […]
September 1, 2023 | Art of the Collapse, September 1 2023
We of course have to start with Oliver Anthony, the good ol’ boy from Virginia who wrote a little protest song called Rich Men North of Richmond, recorded it on his phone, posted it on YouTube — and watched it blow up into the number-one song in the world. Here’s the original video … … and the […]
September 1, 2023 | Crude Oil Demand Will Suffer as Transport Goes Electric
While the world’s crude oil consumption will soon start to decline, many investors expect there will be robust demand for crude oil for decades to come. But it is not too early to analyze the impact of declining demand for crude oil when choosing long-term investments. Most investors based in Canada, and especially Alberta, believe […]
August 31, 2023 | The Cost of Homeownership in the US Spiked 91% in Two Years
The US housing market has not been this unaffordable since 1984, a new study finds. Analysts at Black Knight analyzed home prices, income, and interest rates on a monthly basis going back to 1975 and found that the average mortgage today would cost $2,423 per month on a 30-year fixed with 20% down. This marks […]
August 31, 2023 | Good and Bad News
Let’s start with the bad news. Being that housing prices are high and affordability is ridiculously low, the pic is pretty much accurate – especially in California. The good news? History tells us that market conditions like this are temporary and won’t last forever. Housing prices will fall (and become affordable again) at the […]
August 31, 2023 | More Banks to Fail? Not in North Dakota
US. banks are again in the crosshairs. Standard and Poor’s has downgraded five new middle-tier banks and put three others on negative outlook. This follows sweeping downgrades earlier in August by Moody’s, which cut credit ratings on 10 banks and placed four of the 15 largest U.S. banks on review for possible downgrade. As with the banks going […]
August 30, 2023 | Unaffordable Prices Cure Unaffordable Prices
Canada’s housing bubble is crystal clear unless you are paid not to see it (wilfully blind) or painfully naive. The average national home price of 754K in July is ten times the average household income of $75k. The historically recognized affordability ratio has been home prices that are 3 to 4 times household income; this […]
August 30, 2023 | COVID Vaccine Required for LEGAL US Immigrants
There is an uptick in previously dormant viruses. Then again, countless people have entered America at the southern border illegally. Those who wish to come here on goodwill, legally abiding by US law, are forced to undergo a physical examination and receive the following vaccinations: Diphtheria Tetanus Pertussis Polio Measles Mumps Rubella Rotavirus Haemophilus influenzae […]
August 29, 2023 | Economic Weakness Leads Unemployment, Not The Other Way Around
Many cite US and Canadian unemployment levels today near 5o-year lows as grounds for economic optimism. Unemployment is a lagging indicator that commonly inspires misplaced confidence heading into recessions and then pessimism as it rises into subsequent economic expansions. For leading employment indicators, we look to readings on the average manufacturing workweek, average overtime manufacturing […]
August 29, 2023 | Health Prepping, Part 1: Stem Cell Breakthrough
It’s hard to “survive and thrive” in turbulent times if you’re sick, or even just low-energy. So the most important prepping we can do is on ourselves. Luckily, there are a lot of ways to get optimized, some of them old-school, some exotic, and some cutting-edge. This series will highlight health strategies for today and […]
August 29, 2023 | Russian Lives Matter
The most influential aspect of Black Lives Matter is its name choice. Of course, black lives matter, but the messaging behind the movement itself was pure corruption and controlled civil unrest by the left. It was seen as racist to say that ALL lives matter because the focus was only on Black Americans. Then the […]
August 29, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, August Update: 4th YoY Price Drop Overall, 10 of 20 Cities with YoY Drops. Month-to-Month, Selling Season Begins to Fade
Today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “June” is a three-month moving average of home prices whose sales were entered into public records in April, May, and June, and it still shows the seasonal effects of spring selling season, when prices typically rise on a month-to-month basis, but the effects began to fade, and the index […]
August 28, 2023 | Tug of War
Happy Monday morning! This newsletter has been covering three big themes in the Canadian housing sector this year. In no particular order they are as follows, excessive immigration exacerbating a housing crisis, higher mortgage rates ironically trapping people in their homes, and the destruction of new housing supply brought forth by a trippling of interest […]
August 28, 2023 | How the Aristocracy Ate the Housing Market
The Kobeissi Letter just posted some nightmarish housing stats: BREAKING: Median cost to buy a house hits a new record of $2,748/mo, up a MASSIVE 90% since 2020. In other words, buying a house today costs nearly $33,000 per year. This is 46% of the median PRE-TAX household income in the US. Post-tax, homebuyers in the US […]
August 28, 2023 | Productivity Challenges
Weak productivity pressures profits and, ultimately, increases unemployment. Eventually, after recessions, productivity increases, thanks to reviving demand and lower labour costs (after layoffs). So far, we are early in the layoff phase, with jobless claims rising in 48 US states. Similar trends are evident in Canada and many developed economies, not just in America. The […]
August 28, 2023 | Inflation: Out of Control?
The strongest run of “Inflation” in more than forty years is underway, and pundits claim that it has much further to go. Indeed, popular and highly regarded financial talk shows are reporting that “All paper currencies have eventually gone to zero”. Inevitably, such would indeed be catastrophic.
August 28, 2023 | Trump’s Notoriety Turns into Popularity
Donald Trump’s notoriety is turning into increased popularity as he has become a martyr of the corrupt political system. He is receiving around-the-clock news coverage. Rallies are taking place in his favor, with a large group amassing outside the Fulton County jail that is composed of every demographic. His mugshot has been seen throughout the […]
August 27, 2023 | ‘AI’ Just Another Wall Street Scam
A handful of tech moguls already control the global flow of information, but their influence over our lives will only expand and deepen if Congress doesn’t do something soon to pry their greedy hands from the ultimate fruits of AI development. I say this while recognizing the irony of casting our elected representatives as the […]
August 27, 2023 | The Science of Cycles
Today we continue our study of the historical cycles suggesting a major crisis is in our near-term (5‒8 years) future. We don’t know the precise timing or nature of the crisis, but the patterns indicate one is coming and could be severe. As with many therapeutic programs, the first step is admitting you have a […]
August 26, 2023 | The Caplan Suit to Bar Trump Using the 14th Amendment
Caplan Lawsuit Many emails have come in about Lawrence A. Caplan filing this Declaratory judgment to ban Trump from running for President under the pretense of the 14th Amendment. In his filing, he is clever to state that he admits he was a member of the State Bar of California, but then states “Petitioner has […]
August 26, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 26, 2023
Short-term interest rates surged higher this week Two-year Treasury futures traded to a 23-year low, the 5-year hit a 16-year low, and the 10-year closed the week at a 16-year low, but the long and ultra-long bond futures closed a little higher on the week after hitting multi-year lows on Monday. June 2024 SOFR futures […]