ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
September 18, 2023 | Play Ball
Happy Monday Morning! Over the past several months we’ve been highlighting the marked slowdown in residential building permits, a leading indicator of future supply. This is what happens when the cost of capital doubles, and in some cases, triples. Souce: Ben Rabidoux This is a disaster in the making for a federal government insistent on […]
September 18, 2023 | Greta Poses for the Cameras Amid Arrest
Greta Thunberg is willing to defy the authorities to fight climate change, or at least that is what they want you to believe. They paint this young girl as a radical activist when she is planted counter-opposition. Greta was arrested for the second time last week for refusing to leave a sit-in at a protest […]
September 18, 2023 | Gold Is Doing Great — In Other Currencies
Gold’s job is to hold its value while the local currency is inflated away. Which is another way of saying gold goes up when local currencies go down. The most glaring current example is Japan, where a multi-decade experiment in artificially depressed interest rates is finally coming undone. Inflation is rising, the yen is falling versus other […]
September 18, 2023 | Mind The Credit Cycle
Bank lending is contracting across world economies. The percentage of US banks tightening their credit to large and medium firms (below since 1990 via Tier 1 Alpha) now above 40%–was only seen during the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2001 Dotcom bust, and the 1990-91 recession. As higher interest rates freeze existing home […]
September 17, 2023 | What if Joe Biden Dies?
Someone recently asked what would happen if Joe Biden happened to die leading up to the election. The answer is not as simple as Kamala becoming president, but it all depends on when he hypothetically dies. The majority of states have a filing deadline of January 1, 2024. If any potential presidential candidate dies between […]
September 17, 2023 | A Stroll Down Disinflation Lane
[Last week’s commentary on the gathering economic storm elicited a light-hearted reminiscence from our friend Richard Charles of Alpine Capital. You’ll find his recollection of some notable deflationists enlightening, and there’s also a new word — screwflation — he has coined to describe a phenomenon that has yet to gain traction with eggheads at some of […]
September 16, 2023 | Are Social Justice Warriors Ready to Put Their Wallet Where There Mouth Is?
@liberty..hangout #libertyhangout ♬ original sound – Liberty Hangout
September 16, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 16th 2023
The Bottom Line History suggests that short term caution is warranted for a new investment in North American equity markets. According to www.EquityClock.com , “The weakest time of year for stocks is at our doorstep, encompassing the final weeks in the third quarter. Between September 19th and the last day of the month on September […]
September 16, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 15, 2023
KING Dollar rises for NINE consecutive weeks The USDX hit a 15-month low in mid-July but has rallied >5% since then. (I’ve called mid-July a Key Turn Date as several macro markets reversed course then.) The USD looks attractive as the Eurozone and China/Asia are slowing. American “exceptionalism” draws capital. The Euro traded at a 17-month high in mid-July but […]
September 15, 2023 | A Minsky Moment For Canada Has Arrived
Canada’s Minsky Moment has arrived, as the demand for new credit slows and a substantial portion of household mortgage borrowers are not paying the interest on their debt, much less repaying the principal. Hyman Minsky was an American economist who focused on the business cycle and debt. Since mainstream economics ignores debt, banking and financial […]
September 15, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Price Drops Spread amid Slowing Sales, Rising Supply, Bank of Canada Tightening
The Canada Home Price Benchmark Index for single family houses fell by 1.1% in August from July, after having already fallen by 0.5% in July, to $825,700 (all prices in Canadian dollars), ending a rambunctious spring selling season that had been further fueled by Bank of Canada rate-cut hopes, which then turned into two additional […]
September 14, 2023 | Oil Hits $90!
Crude oil just hit $90/barrel – a new high for 2023 Oil prices are now up a massive 35% in just 3 months. Inflation always starts with energy.
September 14, 2023 | Rule of Law & Prosecutors Are ALWAYS Above the Law
Anyone who thinks prosecutors are to be trusted is out of your mind. I have NEVER met one that had an ounce of honesty or ethics. It is extremely rare for any court actually to go after a prosecutor. Perhaps one in a billion. They are on the same team to uphold their 99% conviction […]
September 14, 2023 | Wall Street’s Soft-Landing Delusion and What Really Comes Next!
For those who like detail, Francois Trahan of Trahan Research offers a cogent macro assessment in his latest video update (1-hour run time): “Wall Street’s Soft-landing Delusion and What Really Comes Next!” You can watch it at this direct video link.
September 14, 2023 | G20 & the One World Government Dream
The movement toward a One World Totalitarian State is proceeding. India is the Chair of the G20. This is the proud symbol of the G20 in Lucknow, (Uttar Pradesh) India. The leaders of the G20 over the weekend reached an agreement to impose by sheer force digital currencies and digital IDs on their respective populations. […]
September 13, 2023 | More and More Hard Data
Debt payments consume an impossible amount of household income, and the problem is global. Across ten large Canadian cities, mortgage payments alone are eating up about 59% of household earnings, based on mortgages amortized over 25 years. This is with 70% of Canadian mortgages still paying fixed payments based on rates less than 3%. With […]
September 13, 2023 | What is Biden Doing in Alaska?
For the first time in US history, the president did not visit a 9/11 memorial on the day of the worst terrorist attack on US soil. Instead, the president traveled to Alaska to commit his own attack against the American people. Peter Doocy said that he received a response similar to “Well, presidents stopped visiting […]
September 12, 2023 | The Northern Border Has Been Breached
The focus has been on the mass influx of illegals from the open southern border. However, migrants have also found their way into the US by crossing the northern border from Canada. The US Border Patrol declared that more migrants have entered the US via Canada in the past 11 months than in the entire […]
September 12, 2023 | Central Banks Offer No Free Lunch
The San Fransisco Federal Reserve published its latest economic letter last week, entitled Does Monetary Policy Have Long-Run Effects? The conclusions are clear: loose monetary policy does not raise long-run economic potential while the eventual tightening of policy reduces economic output for a decade and beyond. We have entered the payback decade: Analyzing cross-country data for […]
September 11, 2023 | Austria Offers Free Transportation for Tattoos
Notice how all of the voluntary actions connected to the Great Reset include preying upon the young or desperate. These will be the first people to move into 15-minute cities and abide by tyrannical laws in exchange for government aid. They handed out free crypto in Africa in exchange for biometric data, for example. In […]
September 11, 2023 | It Tastes Awful, and it Works
Happy Monday Morning! The Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines once again, appeasing premiers in BC & Ontario who publicly pleaded with the BoC last week. It’s no secret these two provinces have the most to lose, their coffers largely built on a highly levered housing market, but we’ll get to that in a […]
September 11, 2023 | Wind Power, Dead Whales, and the Shrinking Trust Horizon
Michael Shellenberger’s Public News outlet has been covering a story that provides yet another reason for us to stop trusting “our institutions”. It begins with the concept of offshore wind power, which once seemed to have a lot going for it. Anchoring huge turbines to the ocean floor allowed them to exploit the steady sea breeze […]
September 11, 2023 | Rents and Home Prices Heading Down
Good news: Big Wall Street Investors like Blackrock, Blackstone, Invitation Homes, and Progress Residential are no longer buying up the housing market. As the rental supply balloons, rents are starting to fall. The next leg of housing downturns typically see for-sale listings surge and prices fall. Nick Gerli explains well in his latest video segment. […]
September 10, 2023 | Why is Bill Gates Buying Anheuser-Buch Shares?
Bud Light, America’s former #1 selling beer, has fallen after the company went woke. So why then would billionaire Bill Gates purchase 1.7 million shares worth around $95 million in parent company Anheuser-Busch? Through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust, the fake philanthropist is purchasing numerous shares of alcoholic beverages. He also bought a […]
September 10, 2023 | Mortgage-Rate Buydowns by Homebuilders Are Now All the Rage to Prop Up Sales, Lowering Effective House Prices in a Big Way, but Don’t Get Picked Up by House Price Data
Homebuilders don’t have the luxury of outwaiting the market, or waiting for the Fed to slash rates, or whatever, they must build and sell homes, that’s their business, no matter what the conditions in the market. And the market is struggling with 7%-plus 30-year fixed mortgage rates and sky-high prices, after a ridiculous free-money spike […]