ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 9, 2024 | The Stock Market Correction is a Warning Sign
U.S. stock markets crashed from Friday last week through Monday this week. High flying tech stocks cratered as well as the broad indexes like the S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei. Was this a crash of the large-cap technology sector, or does it signal the broader market is entering a bear phase? On Monday night some […]
August 8, 2024 | The Riots in the UK – Coming to the USA Soon
Our computer has been forecasting a major rise in civil unrest on a global scale. We are witnessing this from Nigeria to Europe and even in Britain. It will migrate to the United States, and we should be prepared for NOBODY to accept this election REGARDLESS of who wins. The mainstream press will […]
August 7, 2024 | Airbnb Houses Are About to Flood the Market
New players will make this housing bust one for the record books. The current housing bubble features three new players, all of whom are about to switch from “buy/hold” to “panic sell.” They are: Boomers forced by declining health and/or shrinking stock portfolios to sell their McMansions. Wall Street private equity “landlords” who gorged on […]
August 7, 2024 | Emergency Rate Cuts Never Work
COMMENT: Marty, it is always obvious why you were named Economist of the Decade, Hedge Fund Manager of the Year, and FX Analyst of the Year for the Swiss Peg break. As you said on the private blog; “Let’s see but it appears that we could have a bear trap forming with a plunge […]
August 7, 2024 | Luxury Condo Sells for 21 Percent Loss
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the average sale price for all property types in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dropped to $1.106 million in July. On a month-over-month basis, the price fell by 4.7% from June. On the supply side, new listings rose 18.5%, and the sales-to-new listings ratio was […]
August 6, 2024 | Americans Prepared for Lasting Inflation
Americans are preparing for a prolonged inflationary period, based on new data from the New York Fed. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans are still pessimistic about inflation waning, with no one now believing it is transitory. The median expectation is that inflation will remain at the 3% level […]
August 6, 2024 | Household Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q2
otal household debt outstanding in Q2 ticked up by $109 billion, or by 0.6%, from Q1 – the smallest percentage increase since Q2 2023, and the second smallest increase since Q1 2021 – to $17.8 trillion, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Fed today. Year-over-year, total household debt grew […]
August 6, 2024 | Canada’s Financial Hell Paved with Good Intentions
As interest rates fell from 1980 to 2020, the average Canadian home price increased 746% from $67k to $566k, while the median household income rose about half that rate (400%) from $21,252 in 1980 to $84,000 by 2020 (table courtesy of Nerd Wallet). The average Canadian home price rose from about 3x the median household income […]
August 5, 2024 | Americans Prepared for Lasting Inflation
Americans are preparing for a prolonged inflationary period, based on new data from the New York Fed. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans are still pessimistic about inflation waning, with no one now believing it is transitory. The median expectation is that inflation will remain at the 3% level in […]
August 4, 2024 | The Hunger Games: The Fed Version
I am just a poor boy Though my story’s seldom told I have squandered my resistance For a pocket full of mumbles Such are promises All lies and jests Still, a man hears what he wants to hear And disregards the rest… -Paul Simon, The Boxer, 1969 Let the wise hear and increase in learning, […]
August 4, 2024 | Everybody Knows
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows the war is over Everybody knows the good guys lost Leonard Cohen – Everybody Knows Having heard this Leonard Cohen classic on the radio a few days ago, the lyrics have been rattling around in my head as a perfect […]
August 4, 2024 | Will The US Go Into Civil War 2025-2026? Will 2024 Be the Last Election? What Does AI say?
Our computer model warns that we are headed into tremendous civil unrest because those behind the curtain are NOT about to let Trump thwart their agenda of World War III. I warned that they would attempt to assassinate Trump, for it was on the 13-year Assassination Cycle. The last non-Deep State assassination attempt was […]
August 4, 2024 | Time for a Holiday…
[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so be sure to check the home page regularly, especially if stocks go […]
August 3, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for August 3, 2024
With the NAZ down ~12% since the July 11 record highs, do we bounce or keep falling? The NAZ closed lower for four consecutive weeks and closed this week at 18500 (which may be an essential support level), the lowest close since May 14. Perspective: At the July 11 highs, the NAZ was up ~20X from […]
August 3, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 3rd 2024
The Bottom Line World equity markets recorded significant technical weakness last week. Weakness on Friday was extended by a disappointing U.S. July Employment report released at 8:30 AM EDT. Breakdowns below intermediate support levels were recorded by North American, European and Far East equity indices and their related Exchange Traded Funds. Best chart to demonstrate […]
August 2, 2024 | War & Freedom of Speech – Then the Default
I had the privilege of knowing Normal Rockwell back in the 1970s. His most famous war poster, created to raise money for World War II, asserted that if we lost, we would lose our freedom of speech. It is good that Norman is no longer with us. If he were alive today, he […]
August 2, 2024 | Japan Enters Its Death Spiral
Japan has been a big topic in this newsletter because it illustrates the no-win situation in which wildly overindebted countries eventually find themselves. Here are two articles that illustrate the point: How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps Japan Is In That Box Now For The Death Spiral Confronted with both a plunging […]
August 2, 2024 | Recession in the U.S. is Coming Soon
The Federal Reserve delayed cutting rates this week while ignoring signs of a pending recession. The U.S. economy is slowing rapidly and there is a multitude of clues that the U.S. will enter recession before the end of this year. The Federal Reserve has yet to cut rates, but that first cut is almost certainly […]
August 2, 2024 | American’s #1 Financial Problem in One Chart
In April 2024, a record 41% of those surveyed claimed that the high cost of living/inflation was their #1 financial issue – up from the previous record highs of 35% in 2023 and 32% in 2022. At 14%, the high cost of owning or renting a home was the 2nd largest financial issue. Negative […]
August 1, 2024 | Digital Ruble 2025
Russia has announced that it will implement a digital ruble by next July. Moscow will begin using cryptocurrency for some foreign transactions to bypass sanctions and SWIFT. As of November 2024, Russia will permit crypto mining, so long as it is carried out under the watchful eye of the government. The Bank of Russia […]
July 31, 2024 | Study: Canadians Experiencing Worst Standard of Living in 40 Years
The Fraser Institute conducted a study that found Canadians are experiencing the worst standard of living in the past 40 years. Conditions are beneath what was experienced during the 89 recession, the Great Recession, and even the early stages of the post-pandemic. What is going on in Canada? Justin Trudeau uprooted Canada’s fiscal landscape and […]
July 31, 2024 | Crude Oil Rises US$2/B After Israel Assassinates Two Terrorist Leaders
After a Hezbollah attack on a Druze village in the Golan of Israel that killed 12 children playing in a soccer field (total 30 casualties), Israel focused on retribution by targeting the Hezbollah leader (Faud Shukr) who ordered the Majdal Shams attack and killed him and associates in an air attack at his Beirut home. […]
July 31, 2024 | Inflated Prices Increasingly Weigh
Policymakers and economies face a similar challenge globally. After the 2008 meltdown, short-term rates were intentionally suppressed to incentivize credit growth and consumption at the expense of savers and productivity-improving investments. Now, we are paying the longer-term costs of those short-term focused choices. As debt and unaffordability weigh on spending and employment, excess capacity and […]
July 30, 2024 | Yellen Eyes $3 TRILLION ANNUALLY for Climate Change Initiatives
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen once admitted that the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest spending package in American history, was deliberately designed to combat climate change. “The Inflation Reduction Act is, at its core, about turning the climate crisis into an economic opportunity,” Yellen candidly said this April. The act was never intended to curb […]
July 30, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, August 2024
The Paris Summer Olympics may have started a trend: Sodom And Gomorrah Set To Host 2028 Olympics (Babylon Bee) – In keeping with the Olympics’ commitment to sexual violence and Satan worship, the International Olympic Committee announced today that the 2028 games would be held in the towns of Sodom and Gomorrah. “They’re a natural fit for […]