October 11, 2023 | Buying Power Has Halved, Do The Math

Home listings and price reductions are popping up like measles. You can see this by signing into Zillow (or many other sites). Meanwhile, offers are increasingly scarce, and a quick look at any mortgage calculator shows why. When Canadian variable rate mortgages were available at 1.65% from 2020 to early 2022, one was enabled to buy a $750,000 property […]

October 10, 2023 | Housing-Led Downturn To Rival 2008

A decade of levered fiscal and monetary incentives has enabled yet another epic capital misallocation cycle.  Now, we are in the takeback period once more. Heads up. Housing-led economic downturns have historically been the most severe, and the price of homes (US in purple below since 1996) enters this downcycle more elevated relative to income […]

October 9, 2023 | Recession Watch: Red Flags Everywhere You Look

The hardest part of writing this kind of post is sorting through all the red flags. There are just too many these days. So here are the handful that look scariest at the moment: Interest rates are above 2007 levels in a world with twice as much debt. This shouldn’t have been possible, but here […]

October 9, 2023 | Cooling Wage Growth and Loss of Full Time Jobs Confirm Weakening Economy

Cooling Wage Growth Easing Inflation Worries — DiMartino Booth Joins Charles Payne of FBN. Here is a direct video link.

October 9, 2023 | Biden’s $6 Billion Gift to Iran

October 8, 2023 | The Big Cycle

“…what I learned is whatever successes I had in life had to do more with how I dealt with what I didn’t know than what I know… “…the reason I did that book is because there are things that are happening now that never happened in our lifetime before, and I want to be like […]

October 8, 2023 | This War Is Not a Tradeable Event

The massive terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel over the weekend will unsettle the geopolitical world for the foreseeable future. The economic implications are potentially too grave to be treated merely as a tradeable event; investors should instead be thinking about safeguarding capital. Will the price of crude spike to $117 or higher, as predicted […]

October 7, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 7, 2023

Was Friday a turning point? Bond prices collapsed to fresh 16-year lows immediately following Friday morning’s “stronger than expected” NFP report. The US Dollar Index surged higher, while S&P futures tumbled and appeared ready to make new 4-month lows.   But ~30 minutes after the NFP report, markets reversed course, and by the end of the day, S&P futures […]

October 7, 2023 | Ukrainian Nazis

October 7, 2023 | People We Should Know: Russell Brand

British comedian/actor/podcaster Russell Brand by his own admission ran a bit wild when he first got famous, abusing various substances and behaving, as he puts it, “very, very promiscuously.” It’s not surprising, then, that he’d end up being accused of some questionable behavior. And recently that happened, as 10-year-old accounts of sexual harassment and assault have surfaced […]

October 7, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 7th 2023

The Bottom Line Don Vialoux was a guest on “Wolf on Bay Street” to be released at 7:00 PM EDT on Saturday on Corus Radio 640. The show was taped at noon on Thursday. Following are notes developed prior to the interview:

October 6, 2023 | Bond Market Tightens Noose on Highly Indebted Economy

Today, we have news that the Canadian and US economies are estimated to have created more jobs in September than forecast. Still, hourly earnings moved down, and unemployment rates in both countries have moved above cycle lows. It is helpful to remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator, with the bulk of upward moves happening […]

October 6, 2023 | Health Prepping, Part 2: Interval Training

This is the second in a series (the first is here) based on the idea that to be cheerfully ungovernable in the coming dark times, first and foremost you have to be healthy. And there are lots of ways (many of which your doctor won’t bother mentioning) to achieve that. At the top of the list […]

October 6, 2023 | A Collapse in Bank Lending is Ominous

A collapse in bank lending is damaging for the economy, as growing credit is the most important fuel of modern economic systems. Without an annual increase in debt outstanding, a recession becomes almost inevitable. Will the current downturn in bank lending to commercial and industrial clients trigger a recession? Commercial and industrial lending peaked in […]

October 5, 2023 | Biden to Build Border Wall – Trump was Right

The Biden Administration has met its target quota for illegal immigrants who will become future Democrats. The situation has become so out of control that even sanctuary cities are pleading for help from the White House. Civil unrest is rising and Democratic citizens are turning on the Biden Administration. To put a bandage on the […]

October 5, 2023 | Shortage, Indeed

This week, a subscriber asked me to summarize the facts supporting my claim that silver is in a pronounced wholesale physical shortage. For one thing, there was the persistent, large physical turnover of silver in the COMEX warehouses for more than 12 years. This movement has now come to include the silver ETFs. This turnover […]

October 5, 2023 | Pull It!!!

“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the […]

October 5, 2023 | Japan Is In That Box

People keep talking about the “box” in which profligate countries will someday find themselves, where the tools that used to work no longer do and everything falls apart. Japan might be in that box. After years of soaring government debt and central bank “financial repression” to make that debt manageable, it now finds itself in the […]

October 4, 2023 | Yield Curve Steepening Signals More Pain for Stocks, Reeal Estate and Economy

Bond analyst Alf Pecatiello warns that over the last 3 months, US bond markets have been in an aggressive and prolonged period of bear steepening of the yield curve. History shows if left unchecked, this steepening is likely to cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy. Here is a direct video link.  As shown […]

October 4, 2023 | JP Morgan Predicts A Housing Market Crash

Here’s a quick video explaining how soaring interest rates always and everywhere break the housing market. To summarize: A tsunami of homes for sale is about to swamp the tiny number of buyers who can afford 7% mortgages, leading to a precipitous drop in home prices. And of course mass bankruptcies in related industries. If […]

October 4, 2023 | Stock Markets Hindenburg Omen Precedes Hemmingway Bankruptcy

Of course, the Hemmingway quote on bankruptcy is more widely known than the technical signal in the stock market called the Hindenburg Omen.  

October 3, 2023 | Kevin McCarthy Removed as Speaker – It’s Time to Expel California From the Union

    California has become a foreign country that should be expelled from the Union. There has been much discussion of how a state can secede from the Union. Justice Scalia wrote a letter in 2006 saying the answer was no and that it had been decided by force with the American Civil War. That […]

October 3, 2023 | Harsh New Reality for Homeowners as Listings Rise and Buyer-Pool Shrinks

In its 2023 Financial System Review, The Bank of Canada notes growing concern about the ability of households to service their debt, with mortgage holders facing payment increases of up to 40%. Compounding the issue is the fact house prices are falling and reducing the amount of equity owners have: Higher interest rates have also contributed to […]

October 3, 2023 | Art of the Collapse, October 2023

Maybe it’s just my particular Twitter feed, but the Aristocracy seems to be making an especially easy target of itself lately. In September, the resulting abuse fell into several broad categories: Incompetence/evil/senility Videos of gun battles, classroom fights, and organized looting are everywhere these days. And we all know whose fault it is: City Of […]