ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
November 3, 2023 | There is No Free Lunch
From a Ben Bernanke speech in 2011: “Perhaps the most important thing for people to understand about the federal budget is that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit; so, one way or the other, […]
November 3, 2023 | The Federal Reserve Issues a Margin Call
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged this week, at the highest level since 2001. The chair, Jerome Powell, insisted that the Fed might have to hike more, if inflation does not behave in the next few months. The last rate hike in the U.S. occurred in July 2023, after a streak of 11 hikes that […]
November 2, 2023 | Nordic Countries Promise Mass Deportations
Religious zealots have come out in full force in recent weeks. European nations are now realizing that they made a grave mistake by opening their doors to countless migrants who do not share the same culture or values. Reuters reported that Nordic governments are now planning to deport immigrants who have not established legal residence. Denmark has […]
November 2, 2023 | Lacy Hunt on The Impending Recession and Implications
A worthwhile review in this 1-hour segment. Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we’re facing an impending recession. Here is a direct video link.
November 1, 2023 | US Treasury Secretary Unclear on the Concept of a “Deficit”
I have both good and bad news. The bad news is that the US government is continually spending with no end in sight. The proxy wars have eliminated even a level-headed discussion of anything akin to a real budget. In a move that angered Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (also good news) Republicans introduced legislation to reduce […]
November 1, 2023 | What Interest Rates Say About Home Prices
The average home price in Canada ($757k) is about 141% higher than what is considered affordable for the average household income. In the highest-population areas, like the Greater Vancouver and Toronto Areas, where incomes and home prices are higher than the national average, the affordability numbers are much worse. Price-to-income ratios in the mid-west and […]
November 1, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, October Update: 10 of the 20 Metros Down from their Peaks Last Year, 6 Metros Set New Highs
We like the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index because it’s based on the “sales-pairs method” comparing the sales price of the same house over time, thereby eliminating the issues associated with median price indices (see “Methodology” toward the end of the article). And we like it because it shows the 20 metros it covers […]
October 31, 2023 | World War III – It’s Inevitable
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is safe to say that nobody can hold a light to Socrates. Nobody has forecast war three years in advance as you did in 2011. Nobody has predicted a Middle East War in advance as you did two years ago. Even your posts on Turkey and its conflict with NATO, our […]
October 31, 2023 | Art of the Collapse, November 2023
Let’s start with an appealing vision of the afterlife… … and contrast that with the real world, where hedge fund assholes turn necessities like shelter into casino chips: Meanwhile, geopolitics is making life hard for the “I support current thing” crowd:
October 31, 2023 | China’s Real Estate Bust Has Global Implications
The International Monetary Fund warned this month that the downdraft in China’s real estate sector has contagion implications globally: In the near term, the sharp adjustment in China’s heavily indebted property sector and the resulting slowdown in economic activity will likely spill over to the region, particularly to commodity exporters with close trade links to China. Beyond […]
October 30, 2023 | Structural Issues
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 5% for the second consecutive time. BoC’s Macklem flagged everything we’ve been highlighting in this newsletter for several months now. Weaker economic growth and a recent surge in global bond yields is doing most of the tightening for them. Adding, “The path […]
October 30, 2023 | Stock Market Likelihood is Lower for Longer
The average time from a yield curve inversion (long-interest rates below short) to the onset of recession has been ten months historically, ranging from 11 to 22 months. October marks the eighteenth month of curve inversion this cycle. Moreover, since June, the yield spread has been flattening out. As we start this trading week, […]
October 30, 2023 | In The War on Truth, It’s Time To Become Heroes
“Truth is treason in an empire of lies.” – George Orwell “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are […]
October 29, 2023 | Debt Catharsis
The ancient Greeks had a word κάθαρσις, which in English we now spell as “catharsis,” although it’s pronounced basically the same. It originally referred to purifying religious ceremonies, medical treatments, and so on. Aristotle was the first we know to have used the word in a non-physical sense. He compared the emotions felt by spectators […]
October 29, 2023 | Our #1 Bellwether Defies October Curse
Although my technical forecasts have generally been accurate, occasional guesses about when the sky would fall have consistently underimagined the height of bullish folly. Since yet another October looks likely to pass without a stock-market crash, perhaps it’s a good time to look at the chart of Apple, an institutional proxy that is incapable of […]
October 28, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 28, 2023
The Nasdaq had its best-ever first-half gain this year (~45%) but peaked in July and fell ~12% to this week’s lows The Nasdaq’s “defining moment” was made on July 18 when MSFT’s market cap soared ~$100 billion in an hour on an AI announcement, taking the share price to All-Time Highs of ~$367. Within three days, […]
October 28, 2023 | Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow When He Sees the PCE Inflation in “Core Services,” Housing, and Non-Housing Core Services
The spike in inflation in “core services” (all services except energy services) was the big nasty surprise – inflation is infamous for dishing up nasty surprises – in today’s release of the PCE price index for September. “Core services” is the index that Fed chair Jerome Powell has been hammering on, especially “core services without […]
October 28, 2023 | It’s Just Our Turn
This is not my only source about terrorist cells moving into the USA because Biden has opened the borders. The open border has had two objectives. Democrats in Texas are already pushing that illegal aliens should be allowed to vote. They are being joined nationally and Biden will do an executive order to […]
October 28, 2023 | Re-Steepening Yield Curve Signals Financial Trauma in Motion
In the past few months, short-term treasury yields have risen more than long-term such that the yield curve, which has been inverted since April 2021, is now un-inverting. This move typically signals the near-term onset of recession and the worst stock market losses. The chart below from my partner Cory Venable shows the move in […]
October 28, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 28th 2023
The Bottom Line According to www.EquityClock.com “October 27th marks the average start to the best six months of the year for stocks. Over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 8.12% between October 27th and May 5th.” In addition, the strongest nine day period in the year for the […]
October 27, 2023 | The Bank of Canada Needs To Worry About a Recession
The Bank of Canada kept its official interest rate at 5 percent on Wednesday, October 25, 2023. The Governor, Tiff Macklem, emphasized that the BOC is willing to hike rates higher if needed, as he is not happy with the rate of decline in the inflation measures. But the BOC also issued a lower forecast […]
October 27, 2023 | Canadian Recession is Here
David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research and Ed Devlin, founder of Devlin Capital, senior fellow at C.D. Howe Institute and former head of Canadian portfolio management at PIMCO, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss their economic outlook. They say that even as many believe a soft landing is still accomplishable, there are some metrics […]
October 26, 2023 | Biden: If There Were Not An Israel We’d Have to Invent One
For those wondering if the US is using Israel as a vassal state, simply look at what President Biden has been spewing since the 80s. “If there were not an Israel, we’d have to invent one,” Biden first said during a Senate session in 1986 after sending Israel $3 billion. Straight from the horse’s mouth, […]
October 26, 2023 | Luxury Losing Its Luster
What about wealthy people not being hurt by higher debt payments? Nonsense, as usual! As financial markets tumble, luxury spending follows. The slowdown is ubiquitous, folks. CNBC’s Robert Frank reports on spending pull backs from the luxury consumer and what it could be signaling for the economy at large. Here is a direct video link. Bank […]
October 26, 2023 | Tread Carefully!
Our mission as an investment newsletter is to research and provide the best information for our subscribers, assisting them to become better, more successful investors. Navigating through the current market environment continues to be challenging, and we don’t anticipate it getting easier in the very near-term. The unique dynamics of this year have made it […]