ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
November 11, 2023 | Self-Inflicted Recession in Motion
This segment includes an articulate explanation of the yield curve inversion and its implications. I would add: it’s not just ‘normalizing’ interest rates that has sparked cardiac arrest through the economy, it’s the years of excessive credit creation that preceded it. Now we have the take back phase. Campbell Harvey, Duke University professor of finance, […]
November 11, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday November 11th 2023
The Bottom Line The year-end rally by North American equity indices continued last week. Historically, the best period to own U.S. and Canadian equity indices is from the last week in October to the first week in January.
November 10, 2023 | For Sale Inventory on the Rise
The four Ds drive real estate listings: death, divorce, default, and discretionary. The first three tend to trigger regardless of market conditions. ‘Discretionary’ and default listings tend to rise with interest rates– both are escalating now. Ted Oakley discusses real estate with property market expert Ivy Zelman. Here is a direct video link. For those who […]
November 10, 2023 | Judge Arthur Engoron May Have Doomed New York City
QUESTION: You have not commented on Trump’s NY case. What do you think of this case? EK ANSWER: It is a typical New York rigged trial. NOBODY ever gets a fair trial in New York. It is a cesspool of legal corruption. Judge Arthur Engoron is a national disgrace. When Trump’s lawyer Habba stood up to […]
November 9, 2023 | Money Versus Metal
In every investment asset, a key factor in determining the price is the amount of investment buying, either potentially or already existing versus the amount of the asset itself that exists to be invested in. Expressed differently, price is determined by total market capitalization (the total current amount of what the asset is worth), plus […]
November 9, 2023 | Lube That Greases World Economy Reflects Global Downturn
US lubricant consumption has fallen to the lowest level in at least 42 years, according to Bloomberg Opinion calculations based on data from the Energy Information Administration and reflects a cyclical slowdown globally. See The Lube that Greases the World Economy Says Beware 2024: Wherever one looks, from Europe to the US to China to India, […]
November 9, 2023 | The Migrant Crisis – You Ain’ Seen Nuffin Yet!
We have a monumental crisis with the migrants, for we already know that Middle East terrorists have already entered thanks to Biden’s look-the-other-way policy. The proposal Republicans are pushing is that migrants would also be ineligible for asylum if they have been convicted of felonies or other “serious crimes,” including DUI or certain drug offenses. […]
November 8, 2023 | Are There Too Many People Or Too Few?
With financial collapse and global war inching closer every day, you’d have to be an anxiety junkie to worry about distant things like demographic trends. Still, the population debate is interesting, with economists, statisticians, and techies disagreeing over whether the world of 2100 will have too many people, too few, or just the right number. […]
November 8, 2023 | “Serious slowdown” as Global Liquidity Contracts
This discussion offers insight into the origins of QE and what follows as fund flows reverse (QT). Richard Werner, Professor of Banking and Economics at the University of Oxford, regarded as the “Father of Quantitative Easing”, discusses the future of monetary policy. Here is a direct video link. Of course, it is not just quantitative tapering […]
November 7, 2023 | Central Bank & The Taking of Assets?
I will be covering this in detail at the WEC in a couple of weeks. We are getting the same Conspiracy Theories regurgitated and twisted around. People are asking what is real and what is not. Suffice it to say, when you buy shares and leave them at the brokerage house, they remain in THEIR […]
November 7, 2023 | Dash for Cash Intensifying
More than a decade of near-zero interest rates spawned a generation of bonkers financial decisions. Now, we are in the reveal and clean-up phase. Unlike fixed-term mortgages, other forms of credit quickly change with overnight policy rates set by central banks. As shown below, since 1960, courtesy of the Daily Shot, non-mortgage interest payments now […]
November 7, 2023 | Mortgage & HELOC Balances, Delinquencies, Foreclosures: How Are our Drunken Sailors Holding Up?
Mortgage balances outstanding ticked up 1.0% in Q3 from Q2, to a new record of $12.1 trillion, after having dipped in Q2, according to data from the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report. This increase is less than half the pace than the big jumps during the era of the 3% mortgages, when […]
November 7, 2023 | Mark Nestmann: The War On Cash, Past And Future
The Nestmann Group just posted a useful primer on the historical roots and likely future of the war on cash. Governments have been at this for a long, long time. Next up: CBDCs. The War On Cash Escalates Economists and governments have long had a very low opinion of the cash you carry in your wallet or […]
November 6, 2023 | Weak Hands
Happy Monday Morning! Let’s address the elephant in the room. I sent out this tweet last week and it went viral. I can’t comment on who it is, for obvious reasons, so please stop asking. Although it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that a developer with a large construction pipeline is suddenly feeling the […]
November 6, 2023 | Canada App Bans and Online News Act
A Chinese-owned app called WeChat, made for instant messaging, social media, and mobile payments, has been banned from Canada effective immediately as of Monday, October 30, 2023. The application was said to be removed from all government-issued devices and has been blocked for future downloads by anyone. While they did do a sweep through the app to […]
November 6, 2023 | The Coming Great Crash?
I fully understand that there are now so many calling for a Great Crash of all time as they have during each correction, big and small, for over 30 years, and they just never get it right, even once. Some tout the rise in interest rates. Others look at this chart and nothing else. If […]
November 6, 2023 | This Is What Inflation Does To Our Kids
Mainstream economics portrays inflation — defined as a currency that loses a bit of purchasing power each year — as necessary to lubricate the gears of commerce. What they don’t seem to understand (or would like the rest of us to not understand) is that inflation is also a tool for redistributing wealth from one […]
November 6, 2023 | Fed on Hold as Economy Weakens
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Bloomberg Radio to discuss the FOMC decision. Here is a direct video link.
November 6, 2023 | Tightening Further
Last week’s new short position report indicated a moderate increase in the short position on SLV, the big silver ETF, of 2.4 million shares to just under 19.8 million shares (18 million ounces). This increase came at a time of rising prices (as did a similar rise in the shorted shares in GLD, the big […]
November 6, 2023 | Unpacking the Inflation Dilemma: Government Solutions and Their Consequences
Inflation has become a significant concern for voters in both Canada and the United States, prompting politicians from all sides to promise solutions. But before we place our trust in their ability to address this problem, let’s review how this inflation problem evolved. After the financial crisis in 2008, the US Federal Reserve, which manages […]
November 5, 2023 | Medical Care for Migrants Crisis
Over 900 thousand migrants have crossed the border legally over the last year and over 600 thousand have crossed illegally. It is estimated at about 105 million migrants to have crossed over the border in just a year according to a Biden- appointed secretary. It has been an ongoing issue of seeking shelter across the […]
November 5, 2023 | Markets, Riots, War and Peace
[A change of tone and tempo this week from our good friend Richard Charles, owner of Lake Tahoe-based Alpine Capital. His observations concerning gold’s historical role during periods of intense global strife should remind us that bullion’s sometimes crazy price swings should not be investors’ focus right now. RA ] With plans to attend memorial service for a dear […]
November 5, 2023 | Debt Scores
Identifying problems is great. Identifying solutions is even better, especially when the politicians who are supposed to be solving our big problems don’t even try. In last week’s Debt Catharsis letter, I offered some ideas to start fixing the federal debt problem. To be clear, those ideas won’t balance the budget and in many ways are woefully inadequate. But […]
November 4, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 4, 2023
Stocks and bonds soared this week, and the US Dollar fell as markets believe Central banks are “done” raising interest rates Bonds 30-year Treasury futures fell ~20% from the post-SVB highs in April to last week’s 16-year lows. (Yields rose from 3.55% to 5.10%.) The market turned higher last week and soared this week on a […]
November 4, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday November 4th 2023
The Bottom Line The strongest period of seasonal strength in the year for North American equity indices from October 27th to January 5th “started with a bang” last week. The S&P 500 Index jumped % and the TSX Composite Index advanced %. Trigger for the advance was news that the Federal Reserve held the Fed […]