ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 15, 2024 | Which Will Crash First: Stocks or Bitcoin?
I’ll trash bitcoin in a moment — my new hobby — but first a yellow alert for everyone who thinks the stock market’s inevitable collapse is most likely to happen shortly after the first of the year. Although that seems quite plausible, fulfilling popular expectations is not how Mr Market usually works. Think how many […]
December 14, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 14, 2024
What would a turning point in Irrational Exuberance look like? Well, for a start: Some analysts say that retail is the most bullish ever. I don’t know how you measure that, but yeah, it feels that way, and retail is gambling on all kinds of crap – exchange-listed or otherwise. The COT data as of […]
December 14, 2024 | Rhyming History: France’s First Hyperinflation
Back in the 1700s, France was ruled by a small group of inbred idiot aristocrats who started a series of ruinously expensive wars (see, history is rhyming already). As the bills came due, there wasn’t enough gold to pay creditors, and the government faced that era’s version of bankruptcy. Then along came a Scottish economist/con […]
December 14, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 14th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus is on the FOMC Interest Rate Decision on the Fed Fund Rate released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% reduction. The S&P 500 Index currently is following its traditional pattern in the month of December: Flat to slightly lower in the first half followed by the […]
December 13, 2024 | Beware Last 2 Weeks of December – Something is Not Right
QUESTION: You said the computer does not support a bullish view of Trump taking office. Do you know why the computer is showing so many indexes are rolling over to the downside? John ANSWER: I strongly suggest that this is the time to pay close attention to Socrates, for this clearly shows that something is seriously […]
December 13, 2024 | Anarcho-Capitalist Javier Milei Disrupts Argentina and has U.S. Admirers
Javier Milei is making huge changes in Argentina and U.S. leaders like Donald Trump and Elon Musk are planning to follow his radical moves. Will Argentina survive Milei? Will the U.S. copy his program? Source: The Economist While Americans were electing Trump the far right and its billionaire backers were making plans to cut […]
December 13, 2024 | Bitcoin Breaks $100K: What’s Next?
We’ve received a flood of questions about Bitcoin this past week after it shattered the psychological $100K barrier. As most investors are aware, Bitcoin’s rally gained momentum following Donald Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrency earlier this year. Back in July, Trump addressed the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, unveiling plans to establish a strategic national […]
December 12, 2024 | Human Nature is Prone to Self-Harm in Financial Bubbles
Twenty-four years ago, I was studying to become a financial analyst while working at a stock brokerage. Equity markets and animal spirits were soaring; the Nasdaq doubled in 1999 alone. Nortel was Canada’s pride and joy, accounting for over a third of Canada’s TSX stock index. In September 2000, Nortel was trading at C$124 a […]
December 12, 2024 | Volkswagen Protests Heat Up
Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume was booed by a crowd of 20,000 employees after stating that the company is not “operating in a fantasy world.” The company already saw 100,000 union members walkout on Monday. “As management we’re not operating in a fantasy world. We are making decisions in a rapidly changing environment,” Blume stated. […]
December 11, 2024 | Trump Trolls Trudeau – Bank of Canada Takes Note
US-Canada relations under the Trump Administration are beginning on tumultuous footing. Trump has promised to slap Canada with 25% tariffs on ALL imports if it fails to curb illegal immigration and drug trade from the northern border. Trudeau is now threatening to retaliate with tariffs of his own. The Bank of Canada has factored in […]
December 11, 2024 | Are We Running Out Of Copper? This Image Says Yes Ah, the good old days…
Lots of people envy some aspects of their grandparents’ lives, with good reason: Houses used to cost $40,000, college tuition used to be a few thousand dollars a year, and the air used to be free of plastic nanoparticles. Those really were the good old days. But you know who would really like to go […]
December 11, 2024 | Florida’s ‘Condo Cliff’
I regularly hear about people thinking of selling their Florida real estate due to escalating costs. An aged population increasingly feels the same way, and the weak loonie is a final catalyst for many Canadians. Who will be willing to buy from all those looking to sell? After the deadly Florida condominium collapse in Surfside […]
December 10, 2024 | Market Snakes Follow Ladders
Canada’s Venture Composite Index (a basket of economically sensitive micro-cap companies, 44% weighted in materials, 30% information technology, 15.74% in energy, 3.5% health care, 2.48% financials, 1.85% industrials, .58% communication services, and .32% consumer discretionary) appears to concur with former BoC head Stephen Poloz’s recessionary assessment. When the real economy expands, rising demand for commodities […]
December 10, 2024 | Undermining the Debt Creates Recessions and Depressions
Many mistakenly look to the stock market as the leading indication of economic security. The true culprit is the DEBT market, not the stock market, that leads to depressions and recessions. A recession, in comparison to a depression, is merely a minor impact that could be isolated to one nation. Unemployment will typically rise up […]
December 9, 2024 | Housing Vibes
Happy Monday Morning! We’re in a recession, I wouldn’t even call it a technical one. Those were the words from former Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz this past week. It appears Poloz also agrees with our view, that despite the finance ministers best attempt at quieting the animal spirts, this is not a vibecession, but […]
December 9, 2024 | Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World
The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate: Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record: Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring […]
December 9, 2024 | Cash Crunch Set to Intensify in 2025
Some 1.2 million Canadian mortgages are set to renew in 2025. In 2021, those taken out with 3—to 5-year terms had an average interest rate of 2.05%. Today, even after 125 basis points of overnight rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, the average fixed rate on offer with a 20% downpayment is 4.39 to […]
December 9, 2024 | Ellen Brown: How to Escape the Federal Debt Trap
By Ellen Brown / Original to ScheerPost The U.S. national debt just passed $36 trillion, only four months after it passed $35 trillion and up $2 trillion for the year. Third quarter data is not yet available, but interest payments as a percent of tax receipts rose to 37.8% in the third quarter of 2024, […]
December 8, 2024 | Homes for Christmas
Ever notice how “home” is so important to our holiday traditions? It’s hard to imagine Christmas without images of a fireplace, a tree, some food, and rooms with festive decorations. Families gather in such rooms to form lifelong bonds and memories. My neighborhood here in Puerto Rico really goes all out on Christmas decorations. There […]
December 8, 2024 | Is Trump Right about the Canadian Border? | About That
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and his incoming border czar claim their country’s northern border with Canada is a threat to national security. Andrew Chang breaks down the basis of the claims about drugs and illegal migrants streaming into the country from Canada, and to what extent they’re true. Here is a direct video link.
December 8, 2024 | Becoming Invisible, Part 16: China Just Stole Everything
It’s bad enough that our phones and cars (and vacuum cleaners and doorbells) track, save, and sell our texts, phone calls, and location data. But that may be just the beginning. From Mark Jeftovic’s Axis of Easy daily briefing: China Hacks US Telecom Giants in Massive Espionage Operation The “Salt Typhoon” hacking campaign, attributed to China, has […]
December 8, 2024 | Korea Political Crisis
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I first want to thank you for your forecast on South Korea, which you delivered here in Asia. I understand this is the computer. Others would call you a seer. I wonder if you have time to update that forecast since we are as divided here in South Korea as […]
December 8, 2024 | The Herd Is Even More Fearless than in 1929
Skittish about the stock market’s manic climb? Consider moving some of your savings into T-bills, which are currently yielding around 4.25%. You could do worse. Some of my friends are reluctant to take even a little money off the table because 2024 was such an incredible year for them. One is a retired lawyer who […]
December 7, 2024 | The Tyranny in Canada Accelerates
The Third Wave of Canada ended in 2022, and we have begun the Fourth Wave, leading to more authoritarianism, and the Trudeau government seeks to retain power. But this immediate 8.6-year wave reaches its peak in 2026.59. There is no question that the centralized government of Trudeau recognizes that the end is near. They are […]
December 7, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 7, 2024
Tech stocks led the indices higher this week. AAPL hit new record highs, up ~11% in a month and ~50% in eight months. TSLA had another good week, up ~56% since the election and 2.8X in the last eight months. AMZN is at record highs, up ~15% since the election and ~50% in the last four […]