ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
January 19, 2025 | A Possible Storm
Rain can be either refreshing or destructive. It can make plants grow or produce devastating floods. But in all cases, it’s largely outside human control. Or is it? True, we have little control over whether rain will fall. We have a lot of control over how it affects us, though. Sturdy homes and good infrastructure can keep […]
January 18, 2025 | The DEEP STATE – Exposed
January 18, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 18th 2025
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on fourth quarter earnings reports released by large cap U.S. companies. Results released to date (9% of S&P 500 companies) have exceeded consensus estimates. Just a reminder: U.S. equity markets are closed on Monday.
January 17, 2025 | Roosevelt Also Confiscated Silver in 1933
QUESTION: I made a bet that a friend was wrong that Roosevelt also confiscated silver. I never heard of that, only gold. He said I should write to you and you will decide who wins. Thanks FD ANSWER: Sorry, you lose. He must have been at one of my conferences when we discussed that […]
January 17, 2025 | Musk Will Take a Chainsaw To Government Spending
The Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE, is headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Elon Musk is well known as the world’s wealthiest entrepreneur, while Ramaswamy was a candidate for the Republican nomination in 2023. The goal of DOGE is to “cut the federal government down to size”. This could have a positive […]
January 16, 2025 | Volcanic Activity on the Rise
QUESTION: You have opened my eyes to the fact that volcanoes. I believe your computer was forecasting a rise in volcanic activity starting in 2025. Do you have any data that can suggest the risk from the supervolcano at Yellowstone? Pat ANSWER: The Yellowstone supervolcano in Wyoming is one of Earth’s most potent volcanic […]
January 16, 2025 | When will People Stop Moving to the Riskiest Areas?
For the last 50 years, Americans have flocked to the warm, sunny South. But, as climate change makes extreme heat, hurricanes, wildfire and flooding worse, will that trend ever STOP? Well, some regions might just be showing signs of a reversal, and they hold lessons for what other areas might expect as the world continues […]
January 15, 2025 | Destroying the World Economy ASAP
The two positions in life that require ZERO experience are (1) politician and (2) becoming a parent. We often hear blaming foreign buyers in real estate for the rise in prices. I listened to that in Miami, with all the foreigners buying condos, but I also heard in Florida how all these people from New […]
January 15, 2025 | Bidens New Sanctions On Russia Lift Crude Prices >10% In One Week. Expect Reversal Once Trump Takes Office
The Biden administration leaves next week but continues its scorched earth plan to make Trump’s taking over power difficult. The White House continues to spend whatever funds authorized by Congress and that the President can spend under Presidential authority before Inauguration Day. The result may be that the incoming administration comes in with a run […]
January 15, 2025 | Rethinking Risk-Exposure
The Great Fire of London in 1666 prompted the creation of the first fire insurance companies, which later evolved into broader property insurance. Home insurance became more widespread in the 19th century, particularly in the United States and Europe, as urbanization and industrialization increased. The Hartford Fire Insurance Company began offering policies in the U.S. […]
January 14, 2025 | Dems Profiting on California Tragedy
Politicians never shy away from using a tragedy for personal gain. Democrats like Gavin Newsom and Elizabeth Warren have been caught stealing donations intended for California wildfire victims and funneling them back into their Democrat Super PACs. Newsom created a website to combat “misinformation,” another term for controlling the narrative, called CaliforniaFireFacts.com that redirects […]
January 14, 2025 | Surprise: Financial Conditions Tightening into 2025
While the U.S. Federal Reserve cut overnight rates by 125 basis points since November 2023 (below on the lower right), the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen more than a percentage point, touching 4.8% for the first time since October 2023 (on the lower left) and April 2007 before that. Higher rates are the opposite […]
January 13, 2025 | The TRUTH Behind the TikTok Ban – Censorship
The TikTok ban is a complete disregard for the rights and freedoms of the American people. The ban is NOT about national security, but rather, the final attempt to prevent the people from connecting on an uncensored platform without backdoor government censorship. The law in question goes beyond TikTok as the government will only permit social platforms […]
January 13, 2025 | Big Bank, Big Forecasts
Happy Monday Morning! Every New Year is marked with forecasts. There’s a natural affinity for making predictions about house prices, particularly in Canada. Most homeowners we chat with today believe two things, interest rates are going lower and house prices should rise in 2025. I have a few thoughts, but first let’s see what the […]
January 13, 2025 | How Canadian Prime Ministers Stepped Down Over The Years
History offers valuable perspective on human systems and cycles. Political leadership is easy to criticize and hard to do. Pendulums swing, and so it goes. Revisit decades past in Canadian politics as prime ministers came and went and oversight of the country changed hands. Here is a direct video link.
January 13, 2025 | Is the Catalyst For the Next Financial Crisis…Homeowners Insurance?
In October, two brutal hurricanes hit the US southeast. And last week, Los Angeles went up in flames and is still burning as this is written. These natural disasters are, obviously, a nightmare for the people directly impacted. But they might be part of something much bigger and far-reaching. Migration and Inflation Over the […]
January 13, 2025 | Ellen Brown: Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game — The Bank of North Dakota Model
North Dakota is staunchly conservative, having voted Republican in every presidential election since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. So how is it that the state boasts the only state-owned bank in the nation? Has it secretly gone socialist? No. The Bank of North Dakota (BND) operates on the same principles as any capitalist bank, except that […]
January 12, 2025 | A Partly Cloudy Year
Weather forecasters tell us what kind of weather we should expect. They can be wrong, but their short-term outlooks are generally reliable. The old joke that economists exist to make weathermen look good is funny because it has a ring of ironic truth. Other things aside, though, we usually prefer moderate weather. Most of us would be […]
January 12, 2025 | Who Will Insure Us Against the Next Disaster?
Although the major indices were down just 1.6% on Friday, it felt like a big day. Everything that matters to the U.S. economy was moving the wrong way: stocks were falling across the board; interest rates and energy prices were climbing; dollars were growing dearer, especially for debtors; and gold, perhaps imagining a bevy of […]
January 12, 2025 | China – Deflation into 2026 & Beyond
QUESTION: Thank you so much for your world forecasts. It is very helpful to be able to read you here in China. You said that deflation is in motion into 2028. People are cutting back on spending and your model has been correct here in China. Could you provide a quick overview for 2025? […]
January 11, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for January 11, 2025
Rising bond yields are weighing on the stock market but have boosted the US dollar 30-year Treasury yields hit a 15-month high of 5% following Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment report. Since September 2024, the Fed has cut short rates by 100 bps, but bond yields have risen ~100 bps on concerns that continuing government deficit spending will sustain […]
January 11, 2025 | CBDC: The End of Money (Movie)
Click the following link to watch the film “CBDC: The End of Money” Central Bank Digital Currencies are being pushed worldwide by the Bank of International Settlements and governments. Are we witnessing the natural evolution of money into a fully digital form or a pervasive system of social control masquerading as money? This […]
January 11, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 11th 2025
The Bottom Line Good news on the economy in December was bad news for U.S. and Canadian equity markets on Friday: Stronger than expected December Non-farm Payrolls in the U.S. and higher Canadian December employment exceeding consensus estimates were reported. In response, government bond yields on both sides of the border spiked higher and the […]
January 10, 2025 | The UK’s Strange Collapse
In theory, the UK dodged a bullet by withdrawing from the EU back in 2020. Once again in control of its borders and budgets, it had the chance to slow immigration to a manageable rate, rationalize its tax, spending, and regulatory regimes, and chart its own course as a free, wealthy financial center and mid-tier geopolitical power. […]
January 10, 2025 | A Credit Crunch Coming Soon
Hints of an imminent credit crunch in the U.S. and Canada are piling up. Too much debt in commercial real estate, residential real estate, credit card balances, personal loans, mortgages, builders’ construction loans and even governments could trigger a crisis of failure to repay debts. This chart shows U.S. private sector debt since 1834 and […]