ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
May 2, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, May 2024
There are so many wars (and related civil unrest) these days, that it’s hard to keep track of which meme/satire/diatribe is aimed at which crisis. But April included April Fools’ Day, so at least we have a logical place to start: CNN Publishes Real News Story For April Fools’ Day (Babylon Bee) – Fooling thousands […]
May 2, 2024 | Large US Crude Inventory Build Drags WTI Below US$80/B. There is an Inventory Excess Around The World, Even Lower Prices Expected in the Near Term
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Rising and pernicious US inflation now means that the US is unlikely to see a pivot and a cut in rates before the US elections. The Fed’s favourite inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding food and energy) increased 3.4% annual rate from a year ago […]
May 2, 2024 | The Great Unwind Accelerates
A stream of big companies are guiding down their outlook this week with reference to distressed consumers pulling back. See: Long-predicted consumer pullback finally hits restaurants like Starbucks, KFC and McDonald’s: Starbucks announced a surprise drop in same-store sales for its latest quarter, sending its shares down 17% on Wednesday. Pizza Hut and KFC also reported shrinking […]
May 2, 2024 | US Home Prices Nearing All-Time Highs
Home prices in the US are near all-time highs. As I repeatedly stated, we can no longer look at real estate on the national level. Demand and value are contained to certain states and areas of certain states that the public has deemed most desirable, largely due to political factors such as taxes. Yet, […]
May 1, 2024 | Jerome Powell on Stagflation
“I don’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘-flation’,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during his Wednesday address. Powell believed inflation would be “transitory.” He believed that the economy would come down for a “soft landing.” He believed we would enter the year and see numerous cuts due to waning inflation coming closer to the […]
May 1, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America amid the Now-Fizzled Rate-Cut Mania & Erstwhile Plunge in Mortgage Rates
The brief and now bygone era of Rate-Cut Mania. Today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, dubbed “February,” is a three-month moving average of home prices whose sales were entered into public records in December, January, and February. Today’s data therefore reflects Rate-Cut Mania that lasted from the beginning of November until February 13, when the […]
April 30, 2024 | The President Overtaking the Federal Reserve – BAD IDEA
I do not agree with Donald Trump’s view of the Federal Reserve. I speak on behalf of sound economic policies that benefit the people. I do not blindly support a political candidate for the sake of being on the right side. Now, I criticized Trump during his presidency for constantly pressuring the central bank […]
April 30, 2024 | Losses
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Quarterly OTC Derivatives report covers the over-the-ccounter derivatives positions of the U.S. banks. For many years, the only two banks that mattered in the precious metals category were JPMorgan and Citibank. About three years ago, Bank of America burst onto the scene, as a giant new participant […]
April 30, 2024 | The Great Unwind in Motion
Government transfers to households and businesses exploded to record highs during the pandemic, while central banks helped push interest rates to all-time lows. This enabled excess spending, inflated the price of goods, services, labour, and assets in most countries at once, and ballooned debt through all levels of the global economy. Then, central banks hiked […]
April 30, 2024 | Recession Watch: Why Isn’t “Inevitable” Becoming “Imminent”?
So that recession I keep whining about still hasn’t arrived. What’s going on out there to keep “inevitable” from becoming “imminent”? It might be as simple as a government borrowing insane amounts of money and giving it to arms makers, banks, and AI companies. This “fiscal dominance” strategy invokes some serious unintended consequences, including stubborn […]
April 29, 2024 | Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook
Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook is available here. Always a rich and enlightening economic lesson. For those who think the impacts of the 2022-23 monetary tightening cycle are over, this concise review is worth a look. U.S. dollar world liquidity (MWDL) dropped by a record 9% year over year in February as the U.S. Fed’s […]
April 29, 2024 | Happy Monday Morning!
Happy Monday morning! Last week we wrote about the big lie, the federal government claims they are going to build 3.9 million homes over the next seven years. Remember that’s 1528 homes per day, or 64 homes per hour for 7 straight years, no weekends off. So unless the homes look like this, I have some […]
April 29, 2024 | California’s Exit Tax
People have been leaving California in droves due to Governor Gavin Newsom’s socialistic Utopia that demands everyone be taxed on every penny they earn. I’ve long warned that California was unfriendly for businesses and investors. Those who stayed behind will now need to pay to leave under Assembly Bill 2088. California plans to implement […]
April 29, 2024 | Sagging Used-Car Prices, Spiking Maintenance & Repair Costs, and a Post-Bankruptcy Propaganda Coup Turn Toxic for Hertz
Rental car operator Hertz Global Holdings has had a nasty time in the stock market since it emerged from bankruptcy (filed Chapter 11 in May 2020, emerged on June 30, 2021). The new stock closed on the first day of trading at $26.99, then wobbled lower until the meme-stock crowd briefly fancied it again, and […]
April 28, 2024 | The Day We Stopped Trusting Media
One of the first posts in this newsletter’s Shrinking Trust Horizon series was about how “deep fake” technology will make fake images, videos, and audio recordings almost indistinguishable from the real thing. This will kill millions of modeling and acting jobs, while weaponizing audio and video in all kinds of disturbing ways. That day has apparently arrived: […]
April 28, 2024 | When Absolute Returns Are Not Absolute
This week is part two of our conversation about alternative investments. As I pointed out last week, this space has evolved into a distinct asset class of its own. I believe investors need to understand the good, the bad, and the ugly aspects of investing in alternatives. The Strategic Investment Conference is going very well. […]
April 28, 2024 | Science for Those Who Hate Science
Decades ago, there was an article titled “Jazz for People Who Hate Jazz”. The idea was to introduce those who did not know to those who did know. More recently and unfortunately, government-sponsored dogma has promoted an anti-science movement – ironically – in the name of “science”. Disgustingly, mainly for power and money. . Ironically, […]
April 28, 2024 | Red-Hot Nvidia Recalls RCA Mania of 1929
The chart above shows RCA’s spectacular climb to the Mother of All Tops in 1929. The larger chart that frames it shows what Nvidia shares would have to do to replicate the peaks and troughs that set up RCA’s plunge into hell. Notice that the stock’s final top (#4) was just marginally higher than one […]
April 28, 2024 | Beware of 2025
QUESTION: Hi Martin, What are you thoughts on holding cash into 2028? You said cash was king, but there would come a time to abandon cash. It seems this CBDC thing is what you are talking about. Do you have any time yet? See you in London Kind regards, HF ANSWER: Europeans are much more familiar […]
April 27, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For April 27, 2024
Is buying the Yen in anticipation of another “Plaza Accord” the Trade of the Year or just another attempt to catch a falling piano? The BoJ did nothing at their scheduled meeting this week, and the Yen collapsed to a new 34-year low against the USD and hit an All-Time low against the Euro (which has only been around for 26 years.) […]
April 27, 2024 | Fed’s Wait-and-See on Rate Cuts Further Supported by Extra-Hot “Core Services” PCE Inflation & Hot “Core” PCE Inflation
The core PCE price index, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy and is the inflation index the Fed is focused on, jumped by 3.9% annualized in March from February, nearly double the Fed’s target of 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today (blue in the chart). The three-month annualized core […]
April 27, 2024 | Why Trump Can Only be Put on Trial by Congress – Not the Department of Justice
QUESTION: I would love to hear your legal comments on Trump’s immunity claim. EP ANSWER: I would approach this from a geopolitical and practical manner. Trump MUST be completely immune from bringing any criminal or civil charges against him by the government when he is President – yes, even if he killed someone and […]
April 27, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 27th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus this week in on the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 5.25%-5.50%. The question is “How long will the Fed maintain this rate?” Release of a slightly “hotter than consensus” March core […]
April 26, 2024 | How Far Can The Yen Fall Before Japan Goes Bankrupt? We may be about to find out
Japan’s ongoing march to national bankruptcy has been a recurring theme here. See: Japan Is In That Box Japan Takes Another Step Towards the Cliff How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps Now the death spiral has entered a new phase, with the yen/dollar exchange rate heading straight down: To restate the “Japan collapse” […]
April 26, 2024 | Tesla Reports Poor Results and The Share Price Spikes Higher
Tesla, Inc. had a closely watched first quarter report, outlining poor results this week. But the markets’ initial reaction was positive, even if the financial results were underwhelming. Why would the market push the stock 10 percent higher after disappointing results? Tesla reported a 9 percent decline in revenue after a previously reported decline in […]