ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
March 28, 2024 | PBS on the Plastic Recycling Scam Promoted by Oil Cos
The world produces an average of 430 million metric tons of plastic each year. The United States alone produces tens of millions of tons of plastic waste annually. Yet on average, only about 5 to 6 percent of plastic in the U.S. is recycled. NPR correspondent Michael Copley joins Ali Rogin to discuss a new […]
March 27, 2024 | Rosenberg: Business Cycle Update 2024
Economist, David Rosenberg reveals the potential for significant economic downturn and wealth erosion in 2024. With an uncanny blend of humor and insight, he exposes the misleading job reports, the phantom strength of the housing market, and the precarious position of the consumer credit bubble. This discussion stretches beyond the US, offering a grim look […]
March 26, 2024 | Spring Market Demanding More Realism
Nationally, the average Canadian home sale price in February 2024 was $719,400, -11.9% from the cycle peak of $816,720 in February 2022. Year-to-date, sixty percent of homes in the Greater Toronto Area sold below their asking price, 71% in Vancouver, and 48% in Calgary (the trend over the past three years is shown below). The […]
March 25, 2024 | Bottom Not In
US commercial real estate prices have declined an average of 33% since early 2020, with a 60% decline in the office sector. Similar trends are unfolding in Canada. US office loan delinquencies of 30 to 60 days (dark blue below, courtesy of Bespoke) and over 90 days (light blue) have spiked in the past year […]
March 22, 2024 | Danielle on Soar Financially
Danielle Park joins Kai Hoffmann for the first time on Soar Financially and examines the disconnect between current market optimism and the underlying economic indicators suggesting a forthcoming hard landing. Drawing on her extensive experience, Park offers a pragmatic outlook on the risks of speculative mania and the importance of cautious investment strategies in today’s […]
March 21, 2024 | Poorer Than Most Think
Yesterday, the US Fed paused for the fifth consecutive meeting since July 2023. Holding its overnight rate at 5.25 to 5.5%, the Fed expects that rising unemployment will prompt it to ease policy rates later this year. At the same time, Chair Powell intends to continue reducing the Fed’s balance sheet (QT), withdrawing liquidity from […]
March 20, 2024 | Robert Prechter: Levitating Optimism in the Stock Market
People don’t care about cycles when prices are going up. But up followed by down cycles have been constant for centuries, and once everyone who can buy has bought, only sellers remain. Bob Prechter offers a detailed temperature check in his latest market overview. Here is a direct video link.
March 19, 2024 | Liquidity Crunch Spreads as Investors Try to Exit
Saturday’s Report on Business included an insightful investigative report on private debt funds that became all-the-rage during the 2009-2022 low-rate era. See The risks of Bay Street’s hottest funds: Investors often fly blind, and billions of dollars are now trapped: The 2008-09 global financial crisis was a major catalyst for the sector’s growth. Before the crash, […]
March 18, 2024 | Marketplace Reveals Financial Disservice at Canadian Banks
Canadians trust they’re getting good financial advice from their banks — especially in these tough financial times. But a hidden camera investigation by Marketplace uncovers immense pressure on bank employees to push products and services to meet sales targets, or risk losing their jobs. Seven years after CBC first investigated the pressure to sell, bank […]
March 16, 2024 | Unprecedented Speculative Option Trading
Hmmmm… next-level bats*#t. Gunjan Banerji, Wall Street Journal live markets coverage lead writer, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the options market around semiconductor and tech stocks, the impact of AI mania on the options market, the impact of Fed rate cuts, and more. Here is a direct video link.
March 15, 2024 | Reaping What We’ve Sown
Eleven years of near-zero interest rates (2009-2022) drove record debt and consumption, with a manic over-allocation to expensive real estate. Then, online shopping and work-from-home collapsed demand for commercial and office space, and central banks embarked on the most aggressive rate-tightening cycle in more than 40 years. As central banks hold tight, the highly […]
March 14, 2024 | Beware Animal Spirits and The Lag Effect
Since the October lows, stocks have roared back to record highs, and bonds have risen solidly as US 10yr Treasury yields have dropped from 5% to near 4% Will the bull run continue through the rest of 2024? It is an election year in America after all. Or, have the animal spirits carried assets to […]
March 13, 2024 | This Kind of Housing Market
A house on my walking circuit sold on February 18 for $1,060,000 after 11 months on the market. It was initially listed in March 2023 for $1,798,000 and has been reduced nine times since. The property was relatively modest but updated with a water view and a legal rental suite. Property taxes are $8430 a […]
March 12, 2024 | Grantham: US Stocks Top 1 Percent Most Expensive in History
Jeremy Grantham’s latest update is available and worth reading on the GMO website. He points out that the current Shiller PE over 34 for the S&P 500 represents the most expensive 1% of all historical incidents. It has happened at a time when profit margins have also been at all-time highs and unemployment near all-time lows. […]
March 10, 2024 | Apartment Defaults Highest in a Decade
Nick connects the dots very well in this segment. Similar trends are happening in Canada, too. Apartment landlords around America are going into default on their mortgages at decade-high rates, suggesting that the Commercial Real Estate Crash is going to get even worse in 2024. Here is a direct video link.
March 7, 2024 | Central Banks Sit Tight as Pain Spreads
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada announced it would hold its key interest rate at 5%, the highest since 2007. At the press conference, Governor Macklem confirmed that policy discussions considered how long rates should stay at present levels but added, “It’s still too early to consider lowering the policy interest rate.” The main cause for concern remains unaffordable housing […]
March 6, 2024 | Sam Cooper Updates on Money Laundering in Canada
Sam Cooper is an investigative journalist and publisher of The Bureau. We discuss a massive CCP mortgage fraud network he uncovered in Toronto, how it relates to what’s internationally known as the Vancouver Model, and how deeply interwoven Chinese money laundering is in Canada’s economy. Here is a direct audio link.
March 5, 2024 | What China’s Slowdown Means for the World Economy
For decades, China’s economic growth was tremendous. But now the nation is seeing a significant slowdown. Its housing sector is in its third year of decline, the stock market is touching new lows and youth unemployment remains high. These issues may be a major headache not only for the Chinese people and President Xi Jinping, […]
March 4, 2024 | Transitioning To Sustainable Life: No Miracles Needed and No Time To Waste
Current estimates are that we have six years to solve 80% and eleven years to solve 100% of the air pollution, climate & energy security problems caused by fossil fuels and bioenergy. We cannot afford to waste time and money on useless technologies that will not help us advance the cause of sustainable human life on […]
March 3, 2024 | Equity Outflows as Layoffs Rise and Baby Boomers Draw Down Savings
Looking beneath the glossy marketing of investment products and their promoters is essential to managing our savings prudently. In the discussion below, Mike Green explains the nuts and bolts of the current long-always system and how it threatens financial strength and stability. Individuals cannot afford to be oblivious. Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist […]
March 2, 2024 | Markets Not Priced For Downturn in Real Estate
Historically, downcycles in real estate have led to the harshest economic downturns. This cycle is global and highly interconnected. Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chair and head of the investment group, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the ripple effects of China’s real estate issue on U.S. markets, which sectors would be most impacted, and more. […]
March 1, 2024 | Chinese Capital Retreating From Foreign Realty Markets
Thirteen years of ‘easy money’ spurred debt complacency and a global credit boom that inflated asset prices, particularly real estate, worldwide. Now, higher rates are triggering the great unwind in a dash to reduce overhead and raise cash everywhere, all at once. Countries that saw the most significant influx of foreign investment and property appreciation- […]
February 29, 2024 | Commercial Real Estate Investors Cutting Losses
2024 is a big year for commercial real estate refinancing (US loans maturing by year graphed below, via Liz Ann Saunders). Interest rates, insurance, taxes and ongoing maintenance costs are on the rise as occupancy rates decline. Investors who bought and held when prices were high are now selling at huge discounts to cut their negative […]
February 28, 2024 | Insolvencies Leaping as Credit Demand Slumps
Business insolvencies are rising globally (chart below via The National Post), and Canada is seeing twice the G7 average. Canadian business insolvencies rose 35% quarter-over-quarter in the final quarter of 2023. They doubled compared with the same quarter in 2022 and were at the highest level in 13 years (Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy). The […]
February 27, 2024 | Unaffordable Homes are Dead Weight
Thirteen years of ultra-easy money (2009-2022) drove an epic malinvestment of resources on a global scale. Now, we are grappling with the weight of those choices. From here, there’s a lot of room to make wiser investments that will increase efficiency and free cash flow while reducing waste, especially around energy, housing, transportation and food. […]