ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
June 4, 2024 | Easing Begins as Unemployment Rises
We’ve long noted that their actions tend to be contagious once central banks start easing rates in response to disinflation and weakening global demand. This week, the Bank of Canada (BOC) and European Central Bank are expected to follow the Swiss and Swedish central banks in announcing the first 25 basis point (bps) cut since […]
June 3, 2024 | EPB Macro: Recession Signal Still Flashing
Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro offers valuable business cycle insight, and his latest educational video is worth watching. Eric warns that ” a lapse in patience is often a fatal flaw in using a business cycle process.” No truer words… In this video, we look into sequential signals of Business Cycle Recessions. Here is a direct video link.
May 30, 2024 | Running Bulls Need No Thinking
For a year now, overnight interest rates have been above 5% in Canada and America, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been falling. This has resulted in the highest real interest rates (overnight rate – CPI) in at least 23 years. While very hard on debtors, it’s favourable for savers and it’s long overdue. […]
May 29, 2024 | Koo Explains Balance Sheet Recessions
Once the private sector is focused on paying down debt, economic growth is much harder to generate. Not just in China. Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute, explains why he thinks Beijing’s stimulus so far is not enough to get the country out of a “balance sheet recession”. Here is a direct video link.
May 28, 2024 | The Bond King Returns
For our first-ever in-studio Webcast with Dave, David Rosenberg hosts the “Bond King”, Jeffrey Gundlach, to discuss where the long-awaited recession is, his views on inflation o er the next 1-3 years, and his current thinking on the treasury market. The call, recorded on May 23, 2024, has been made available to the general public. […]
May 27, 2024 | Analysis-Free Asset Allocation is No Free Lunch
Michael Green reveals the hidden economic dangers and the risks of passive investing in today’s market. In this episode, Andrew Brill welcomes back Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, for an insightful discussion on the current state of the economy. Discover why market indexes continue to hit new highs despite […]
May 25, 2024 | Rosenberg: Canada is Probably Already in Recession
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how Canada is probably already in a recession. Here is a direct video link.
May 24, 2024 | We Pick Our Poison
It’s a worldview thing: bulls celebrate AI euphoria led by Nvidia (chart below courtesy of Bloomberg), driving record-high stock valuations amid overstated job and GDP growth that get revised lower in retrospect. Realists see all this and everything else within the historical context. With assets priced for perfection, there’s no room for disappointment. The […]
May 23, 2024 | Debtasized: How Our Reliance on Credit Leads To Price Inflation
Easy credit pushed up the price of existence for all by enabling unsustainable demand. Now we have the payback period. The video below from Doug Hoyes and Co is worth watching. I found playing it at 1.25x speed was more comfortable. Debt Free in 30 takes viewers on a journey through credit history, price inflation, […]
May 22, 2024 | Danielle on Thoughtful Money
Danielle was a return guest on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
May 21, 2024 | Buy Now Pay Later was Always a Bad Idea
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is much worse than layaway plans of yore. Layaway plans allowed people to make installments toward an item and pick it up on the last payment. BNPL allows people to take the item with the promise to pay for it in installments over time. Cash-strapped consumers have been using BNPL […]
May 20, 2024 | Envisioning Bottom Up Energy Systems
An extremely important and enlightening discussion. The energy future is bright!! Worth listening. Here’s a direct audio link.
May 17, 2024 | Danielle on Thoughtful Money
Danielle was a return guest on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart. You can watch a video clip of the segment here. If you haven’t seen the 2022 film Dumb Money, it’s worth a look. Here’s the trailer link. Evidently, the capital wipeout from 2021 through 2023 was not enough to kill the gambling fever, see Is the […]
May 16, 2024 | Energy Evolution Booming for Economic Reasons
Despite naysayers who continually miss forests for trees, energy technology is rapidly evolving globally and “S” curve adoption is proceeding apace. With a shrinking population and rising unemployment, China sees the imperative of improving efficiency and lowering operating costs through technology. To this end, the country is leading the world in the production of electric […]
May 15, 2024 | China Ready To Write Down Real Estate Values. Who’s Next?
Governments worldwide are looking for ways to “ease the real estate crisis” now sweeping much of the developed world. The most popular ideas seek to prop up prices while enabling new buyers to obtain even more credit. After decades of epic malinvestment in real estate, China is at the forefront of the spreading property crisis. […]
May 13, 2024 | Canada Needs Bold New Focus on Net Income Enhancement
More malinvestment in propping up asset prices and the status quo is the opposite of what’s needed. The focus has to be on investments and incentives that increase longer-term efficiency and net income (with full cost accounting for the waste and harm created by different business models and revenue streams). Andrew Grantham, senior economist at […]
May 12, 2024 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
The CBC News Network Weekend Business panel takes a look at the top stories of the week. Here is a direct video link.
May 10, 2024 | Monetary Easing Tends To Be Contagious and No Quick Fix
This week, the Swedish central bank followed Switzerland in becoming the second G10 nation to ease base rates in the banking system. Both cited weakening economic activity. The Bank of Canada is expected to follow suit this summer, with 45% of outstanding Canadian mortgages up for renewal this year and next. Most were taken out when […]
May 9, 2024 | Mind those “defensive” equities
Danielle DB does a good job of summarizing the latest data, suggesting that a US recession is nigh and corporate revenues and employment are set for a drubbing. From the NYSE site, Caroline Woods and Danielle DiMartino Booth discuss the Fed’s continued fight against inflation, the spending power of U.S. Consumers and how A.I. could […]
May 8, 2024 | Canada Feeling The Burn of High Debt and Weakening Employment
The Nanos Pocketbook Index, a component of the broader Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index and a measure of how Canadians perceive their personal finances and job security, fell to 50 last week, the same level as the pandemic low in April 2020. Fifty percent of respondents said that their finances had worsened in the past […]
May 7, 2024 | Rethinkx: Simultaneous Mass Disruptions Now Unfolding
In the fifteen years between 1907 and 1922, horses went from providing 95% of all private vehicle miles travelled on American roads to less than 20% (see chart below). But since cars travel a far greater distance per year than horse-drawn wagons for a fraction of the cost per mile, the fate of the horse […]
May 6, 2024 | China Exporting Deflation to the World
China’s economy is teetering on the brink of widespread deflation—a scenario that could cause even more problems than high inflation. We look at Japan’s “lost decade” to explain why China’s economy is struggling and what it means for the global economy. Here is a direct video link.
May 2, 2024 | The Great Unwind Accelerates
A stream of big companies are guiding down their outlook this week with reference to distressed consumers pulling back. See: Long-predicted consumer pullback finally hits restaurants like Starbucks, KFC and McDonald’s: Starbucks announced a surprise drop in same-store sales for its latest quarter, sending its shares down 17% on Wednesday. Pizza Hut and KFC also reported shrinking […]
April 30, 2024 | The Great Unwind in Motion
Government transfers to households and businesses exploded to record highs during the pandemic, while central banks helped push interest rates to all-time lows. This enabled excess spending, inflated the price of goods, services, labour, and assets in most countries at once, and ballooned debt through all levels of the global economy. Then, central banks hiked […]
April 29, 2024 | Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook
Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook is available here. Always a rich and enlightening economic lesson. For those who think the impacts of the 2022-23 monetary tightening cycle are over, this concise review is worth a look. U.S. dollar world liquidity (MWDL) dropped by a record 9% year over year in February as the U.S. Fed’s […]