ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
May 17, 2024 | Danielle on Thoughtful Money
Danielle was a return guest on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart. You can watch a video clip of the segment here. If you haven’t seen the 2022 film Dumb Money, it’s worth a look. Here’s the trailer link. Evidently, the capital wipeout from 2021 through 2023 was not enough to kill the gambling fever, see Is the […]
May 16, 2024 | Energy Evolution Booming for Economic Reasons
Despite naysayers who continually miss forests for trees, energy technology is rapidly evolving globally and “S” curve adoption is proceeding apace. With a shrinking population and rising unemployment, China sees the imperative of improving efficiency and lowering operating costs through technology. To this end, the country is leading the world in the production of electric […]
May 15, 2024 | China Ready To Write Down Real Estate Values. Who’s Next?
Governments worldwide are looking for ways to “ease the real estate crisis” now sweeping much of the developed world. The most popular ideas seek to prop up prices while enabling new buyers to obtain even more credit. After decades of epic malinvestment in real estate, China is at the forefront of the spreading property crisis. […]
May 13, 2024 | Canada Needs Bold New Focus on Net Income Enhancement
More malinvestment in propping up asset prices and the status quo is the opposite of what’s needed. The focus has to be on investments and incentives that increase longer-term efficiency and net income (with full cost accounting for the waste and harm created by different business models and revenue streams). Andrew Grantham, senior economist at […]
May 12, 2024 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
The CBC News Network Weekend Business panel takes a look at the top stories of the week. Here is a direct video link.
May 10, 2024 | Monetary Easing Tends To Be Contagious and No Quick Fix
This week, the Swedish central bank followed Switzerland in becoming the second G10 nation to ease base rates in the banking system. Both cited weakening economic activity. The Bank of Canada is expected to follow suit this summer, with 45% of outstanding Canadian mortgages up for renewal this year and next. Most were taken out when […]
May 9, 2024 | Mind those “defensive” equities
Danielle DB does a good job of summarizing the latest data, suggesting that a US recession is nigh and corporate revenues and employment are set for a drubbing. From the NYSE site, Caroline Woods and Danielle DiMartino Booth discuss the Fed’s continued fight against inflation, the spending power of U.S. Consumers and how A.I. could […]
May 8, 2024 | Canada Feeling The Burn of High Debt and Weakening Employment
The Nanos Pocketbook Index, a component of the broader Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index and a measure of how Canadians perceive their personal finances and job security, fell to 50 last week, the same level as the pandemic low in April 2020. Fifty percent of respondents said that their finances had worsened in the past […]
May 7, 2024 | Rethinkx: Simultaneous Mass Disruptions Now Unfolding
In the fifteen years between 1907 and 1922, horses went from providing 95% of all private vehicle miles travelled on American roads to less than 20% (see chart below). But since cars travel a far greater distance per year than horse-drawn wagons for a fraction of the cost per mile, the fate of the horse […]
May 6, 2024 | China Exporting Deflation to the World
China’s economy is teetering on the brink of widespread deflation—a scenario that could cause even more problems than high inflation. We look at Japan’s “lost decade” to explain why China’s economy is struggling and what it means for the global economy. Here is a direct video link.
May 2, 2024 | The Great Unwind Accelerates
A stream of big companies are guiding down their outlook this week with reference to distressed consumers pulling back. See: Long-predicted consumer pullback finally hits restaurants like Starbucks, KFC and McDonald’s: Starbucks announced a surprise drop in same-store sales for its latest quarter, sending its shares down 17% on Wednesday. Pizza Hut and KFC also reported shrinking […]
April 30, 2024 | The Great Unwind in Motion
Government transfers to households and businesses exploded to record highs during the pandemic, while central banks helped push interest rates to all-time lows. This enabled excess spending, inflated the price of goods, services, labour, and assets in most countries at once, and ballooned debt through all levels of the global economy. Then, central banks hiked […]
April 29, 2024 | Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook
Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook is available here. Always a rich and enlightening economic lesson. For those who think the impacts of the 2022-23 monetary tightening cycle are over, this concise review is worth a look. U.S. dollar world liquidity (MWDL) dropped by a record 9% year over year in February as the U.S. Fed’s […]
April 26, 2024 | Private Equity More Boondoggle Than Brilliance
I’ve frequently spoken and written about leverage-on-leverage contagion risks from the private equity and credit markets with feedback loops to real estate. Some of the articles are here. As interest rates slumped in the decade leading up to 2022, this space increasingly attracted yield-starved capital from institutions and individuals alike. Our capital management firm was inundated […]
April 25, 2024 | Plastic Recycling is a Myth: Here’s How We Fix That
Understanding the truth about plastic is key to finding solutions. Globally, only 9% of plastic is ever recycled, and even that tiny amount requires some virgin plastic to maintain quality. But scientists have discovered a new way to address this issue: “plastivores”, organisms that have evolved to eat plastic using enzymes in their bodies. Can […]
April 24, 2024 | Rates Weighing on Too-High Home Prices
First quarter new condo sales in the Toronto region dropped to their lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis, with investors balking at lofty purchase prices and higher borrowing costs. See New condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area hit 15-year low: “It is dead. I would never use words like this, but I am because […]
April 23, 2024 | Mortgage Pain Has Not Peaked Yet
Despite spring market optimism, US Home sales in March posted their most significant decline in more than a year (-4.3% month-over-month–largest monthly decline since November 2022) as 30-year fixed mortgage rates moved back above 7% from just over 6% in early February. See Housing Market Slumps as Mortgage Rates Top 7%. Also, see, This could be the year […]
April 22, 2024 | China Exporting Deflation (encore)
China’s epic property bust has left it with a glut of materials and products that it is now exporting globally. This will help ease inflationary pressures and threaten the viability of competitors. As construction at home has dried up, Chinese steel exports have risen 33% year over year, and the excess supply goes far beyond steel to […]
April 19, 2024 | Ban on Short-Term Rentals Broadens
Under the headlines, policy is having to shift away from favouring investors (who tend to be older) to favouring renters/workers (who tend to be younger). A provincial rule limiting short-term rentals to a homeowner’s principal residence plus one secondary suite or accessory dwelling comes into force in British Columbia on May 1 in 60 communities. […]
April 18, 2024 | Layoffs Booming in 2024
Twenty-two US states have seen the three-month moving average of their unemployment rate less the low of the past 12 months rise 50 basis points or more (a ‘recession’ indicator known as the Sahm rule). Since at least 1978, there has never been a time when more than 20 states have seen this degree of […]
April 17, 2024 | Feds Increase Capital Gains Inclusion Rate
The new Federal Budget released yesterday has significant implications for capital assets held by individuals and corporations. See: Feds raise capital gains inclusion rate to 66.6% starting June 25. The taxable portion increases to two-thirds from one-half on capital gains above $250,000 realized annually by individuals and all capital gains realized by corporations and trusts. This […]
April 15, 2024 | 30-year Mortgage Amortizations are Not The Solution Needed
The latest government initiative to try and keep home prices at unaffordable levels is to extend the term of debt amortization to 30 years from 25 for government-insured mortgages (available where property prices are $1 million or less). Making people debt slaves for even longer does little to help the housing unaffordability and debt weighing […]
April 14, 2024 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest with Jacqueline Hansen and Elmer Kim on CBC’s Weekend Business Panel. You can view a video clip of the segment here.
April 12, 2024 | Rate Cutting Comes with Deteriorating Job Market
Frances Donald, chief economist at Manulife Investment Management, and BMO Capital Markets head of US rates strategy Ian Lyngen explain the biggest economic challenges facing the Federal Reserve as the central bank’s 2% inflation target remains elusive. Frances and Ian speak with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio. Here is a direct video link.
April 11, 2024 | Easy For Some, Harder for Most
Four months ago, Fed Fund Futures had priced in the expectation of 6 to 8 US rate cuts (150 to 200 basis points) by the end of 2024. Today, that expectation has retreated to just 40 bps, with a 17% chance of a 25 bp cut in June, down from 50% on Monday. A significant […]