ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
June 20, 2024 | A.I. Hype Has Magnified Market Downside
A worthwhile discussion in this segment… So far this year, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have accounted for more than 76% of the index’s gain. This is the 2nd most concentrated reading for the S&P in the past 20 years. The highest percentage was 79%, achieved in 2007, right before the Global […]
June 19, 2024 | Canadian Financial Weakness Stands Out
The unemployment rate and bankruptcies are surging. Here is a direct video link. Canadian corporate bankruptcies are +93% year over year (shown below since 2014). While the Canadian stock market has gone nowhere since November 2021…
June 17, 2024 | Understanding the Risks of Artificial Intelligence
Geoffrey Hinton, a computer scientist and cognitive psychologist, has long been a leading thinker about artificial intelligence. In this segment with Jon Erlichman, he articulates complex issues clearly enough for a general audience. Worth the listen. Here is a direct video link to part one. And here is a direct video link to part two.
June 15, 2024 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Here is a direct video link.
June 13, 2024 | Tougher For Longer
Yesterday morning, a milder-than-expected US CPI number boosted hopes that the US Fed may soon start lowering its policy rate. Financial markets pooped on the headline, further loosening financial conditions for some publicly traded companies. Then, a more hawkish Fed announcement in the afternoon lowered 2024 cut expectations from 75 basis points (bps) in the […]
June 12, 2024 | Rosenberg Updates on Economic Cycle
This interview offers a lucid top-down review of economic trends and asset markets. Here is a direct video link. As I explained here, I do not share the faith that immigration should prevent Canadian home prices from declining by more than ten percent.
June 11, 2024 | Canadian Home Prices Moving Lower For Math Reasons
It is wildly unpopular to say this, but Canadian home prices need to move much lower. And yes, I, too, stand to lose net worth as they do. Immigration is unlikely to prevent mean reversion here. Immigrants need places to live, to be sure, but historically, it took an average of 7 years before immigrants […]
June 10, 2024 | Leveraged Gambling Ends Badly, as Usual
The lure of easy money delivers time-worn outcomes, once again. See how Real estate investors are wiped out in bets fuelled by Wall Street loans: Lynn Nathe was growing tired of the meager gains from her family’s retirement account. In late 2021, she invested $200,000 with a company that was making 30% returns by buying the […]
June 9, 2024 | Emission-Free Air Travel Now in Motion
Conventional polluting air travel is ripe for disruption. Fortunately, that’s in motion. German aerospace company Lilium wants to revolutionize air travel with its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) jet. “Revolutionize means make it absolutely zero emission,” Lilium CEO Klaus Roewe told CNBC Tech in an interview. Here is a direct video link.
June 8, 2024 | Lacy Hunt: There is Reason To Worry
One of Lacy’s best ever… Famed economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins us to talk about the recession in America and what he thinks will tip the scales. Here is a direct video link.
June 7, 2024 | Canadian Banks Bracing For Mortgage Renewal Stress
About that Canadian debt renewal cliff… Canada’s Big Six banks are adding billions of dollars to their emergency funds as mortgage renewals approach for more than three quarters of homeowners. Andrew Chang explains why the banks are preparing for more delinquencies, and who’s most at risk. Here is a direct video link.
June 6, 2024 | Eyes Wide Open as Bank of Canada Blinks
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada (BOC) blinked on inflation fears and responded to weak growth and rising unemployment with the first rate cut in four years and the first since the epic tightening cycle began 27 months ago in March 2022. Markets are pricing in another 50 bps of BOC rate cuts by year-end. Canada […]
June 5, 2024 | AI Mania Has Hyped Costs and Stock Prices
The costs of running generative AI are mind-blowing considering energy, training, and materials, while the revenue case is still largely missing. In just one example, Silicon Valley venture capital firm Sequoia estimates that in 2023, the tech industry spent $50 billion on chips from Nvidia to train AI but generated only $3 billion in revenue. […]
June 4, 2024 | Easing Begins as Unemployment Rises
We’ve long noted that their actions tend to be contagious once central banks start easing rates in response to disinflation and weakening global demand. This week, the Bank of Canada (BOC) and European Central Bank are expected to follow the Swiss and Swedish central banks in announcing the first 25 basis point (bps) cut since […]
June 3, 2024 | EPB Macro: Recession Signal Still Flashing
Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro offers valuable business cycle insight, and his latest educational video is worth watching. Eric warns that ” a lapse in patience is often a fatal flaw in using a business cycle process.” No truer words… In this video, we look into sequential signals of Business Cycle Recessions. Here is a direct video link.
May 30, 2024 | Running Bulls Need No Thinking
For a year now, overnight interest rates have been above 5% in Canada and America, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been falling. This has resulted in the highest real interest rates (overnight rate – CPI) in at least 23 years. While very hard on debtors, it’s favourable for savers and it’s long overdue. […]
May 29, 2024 | Koo Explains Balance Sheet Recessions
Once the private sector is focused on paying down debt, economic growth is much harder to generate. Not just in China. Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute, explains why he thinks Beijing’s stimulus so far is not enough to get the country out of a “balance sheet recession”. Here is a direct video link.
May 28, 2024 | The Bond King Returns
For our first-ever in-studio Webcast with Dave, David Rosenberg hosts the “Bond King”, Jeffrey Gundlach, to discuss where the long-awaited recession is, his views on inflation o er the next 1-3 years, and his current thinking on the treasury market. The call, recorded on May 23, 2024, has been made available to the general public. […]
May 27, 2024 | Analysis-Free Asset Allocation is No Free Lunch
Michael Green reveals the hidden economic dangers and the risks of passive investing in today’s market. In this episode, Andrew Brill welcomes back Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, for an insightful discussion on the current state of the economy. Discover why market indexes continue to hit new highs despite […]
May 25, 2024 | Rosenberg: Canada is Probably Already in Recession
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how Canada is probably already in a recession. Here is a direct video link.
May 24, 2024 | We Pick Our Poison
It’s a worldview thing: bulls celebrate AI euphoria led by Nvidia (chart below courtesy of Bloomberg), driving record-high stock valuations amid overstated job and GDP growth that get revised lower in retrospect. Realists see all this and everything else within the historical context. With assets priced for perfection, there’s no room for disappointment. The […]
May 23, 2024 | Debtasized: How Our Reliance on Credit Leads To Price Inflation
Easy credit pushed up the price of existence for all by enabling unsustainable demand. Now we have the payback period. The video below from Doug Hoyes and Co is worth watching. I found playing it at 1.25x speed was more comfortable. Debt Free in 30 takes viewers on a journey through credit history, price inflation, […]
May 22, 2024 | Danielle on Thoughtful Money
Danielle was a return guest on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
May 21, 2024 | Buy Now Pay Later was Always a Bad Idea
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is much worse than layaway plans of yore. Layaway plans allowed people to make installments toward an item and pick it up on the last payment. BNPL allows people to take the item with the promise to pay for it in installments over time. Cash-strapped consumers have been using BNPL […]
May 20, 2024 | Envisioning Bottom Up Energy Systems
An extremely important and enlightening discussion. The energy future is bright!! Worth listening. Here’s a direct audio link.