ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 18, 2022 | Record Tightening Priced into Treasuries, Equities Not Yet
As shown below, since 1999, courtesy of The Daily Shot, the US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond yield spread at -.52 last week was the most negative since the onset of the 2001-02 and 2007-09 US recessions. An imminent recession is also predicted by Bloomberg probability models that now forecast a 100% likelihood of a US […]
October 17, 2022 | Marketplace Looks at Canadian Mortgage Fraud
Easy credit and speculative frenzy enabled an extended bull market in fraud. As financial liquidity retreats a plethora of reckless and illegal activities are being laid bare. We go undercover to investigate mortgage brokers and real estate agents perpetrating mortgage fraud for a fee, securing commissions by submitting fake documents for approval. Here is a direct […]
October 14, 2022 | EPB Macro: October 2022 Monthly Cyclical Trends Update
EPB Macro does an excellent job of summarizing key trends in economic and market data. The latest Monthly Cyclical Trends Update: October 2022 is out today for subscribers only, but Eric has generously allowed me to share the video overview with my readers below. Twenty-one minutes worth watching. The [Monthly Cyclical Trends Update] is a once-per-month, […]
October 12, 2022 | The Everything Bust Will Take Some Time
Yesterday, Canada’s TSX stock index closed at 18,215, breaking below its previous July low of 18,329. As I noted in Tech leading lower, the February 2020 high of 17,944 is the next price test on deck for the TSX. As of today’s open, the Canadian benchmark is -18% since March and just 1.5% above where it […]
October 11, 2022 | Self-Dealing is Rampant and We Keep Paying For It
Self-dealing is when a fiduciary acts in their own best interest in a transaction. It is text-book corruption and apparently widespread among government and regulatory representatives on the left and the right. Undermining objectively determined policies and the rule of law is indefensible and socially destructive, so why do we tolerate it? See Government officials invest in companies […]
October 10, 2022 | Tech Leading Lower
Technology shares led overall markets higher from 2020 through 2021 as government hand-outs, low-interest rates, and spare time enabled both a retail spending boom and a gambling frenzy in financial markets. From the March 20, 2020, COVID crash lows of 6,879, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index broke through 10,000 by July 2020 (not 3 months […]
October 6, 2022 | Remember, USD Love is Cyclical Not Permanent
With most assets dropping in 2022, the US dollar (DXY) has been a rare standout, up 25% against a basket of global trade currencies since December 20, 2020, and 17% year to date. As with most trends, it’s common for humans to expect the status quo to continue indefinitely. Nothing ever does. After bouncing for […]
October 4, 2022 | Fed Intent on Crushing Inflation
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, is joining us today. She was a former advisor to the Dallas Federal Reserve during the great financial crisis, working with Richard Fisher, and she’s author of the book Fed Up. Here is a direct video link.
October 3, 2022 | No Average Climate
Everywhere today, conversations are being had about what is happening in asset markets and the economy. Many people are in varying degrees of concern, alarm, and distress. Few are yet in a panic. History assures us that they will be. While 60.9% of investors surveyed in September were bearish in sentiment, as shown below courtesy […]
September 27, 2022 | Housing Bubble Deflating
This video presents the US housing dynamics well. Unfortunately, after many similar factors, the Canadian housing excesses are even greater and the downside bigger. Home prices have greatly outpaced average persons disposable income. In the video we will explain what this means for the U.S. Housing market and how home prices corrected during similar housing […]
September 26, 2022 | Private Equity Losses Not Yet Booked
Public pensions have reported a median -7.9% for the fiscal year ended June 30–their biggest loss since 2009 (data published in The Wall Street Journal). This figure reflected the returns for traditional publicly traded investments like stocks and bonds to the end of the second quarter. However, illiquid assets, including private equity funds (PE), represented nearly a […]
September 23, 2022 | ‘Snow-Washing’ in Canada, Money Laundering All Star
I have long thought that a housing bust and ugly recession might finally catalyze a serious crackdown on money laundering in Canada. Apathy has been the status quo while asset prices were rising. Now, as prices plunge and pain spreads, public tolerance should shift. Realty reports show that many properties bought in early 2022 are […]
September 22, 2022 | Operation ‘Break Things’ To Continue
Hiking the US Fed funds rate a further .75 yesterday, now 3 to 3.25% (from 0 to .25% in March), Chair Powell acknowledged that unemployment will rise, adding: “Nonetheless, we’re committed to getting inflation back down to 2%.” Powell reiterated that his board plans to raise US base rates a further 1.25% (4.25 to 4.5%) by […]
September 19, 2022 | 2022: Three Quarters of Pain and Counting
As we start the third week of September, with the US Fed’s much-telegraphed rate hike on Wednesday (+.75 with some 30% betting odds of a full percent!), markets are peaked. Bitcoin (-71%) continues to lead the crypto Ponzi down the back side of heartbreak hill. So far, the S&P 500 -20%, the Nasdaq -29%, and […]
September 16, 2022 | $95 Billion in Monthly Liquidity Reduction to Begin Today
Starting today, the US Fed has pledged to run off its balance sheet (reduce liquidity in the banking system via ‘Quantitative Tapering’) by $95 billion a month–double the amount they were supposed to have been withdrawing (QT) since the start of June and about 5.5x the $17 billion per month they actually have withdrawn. We will […]
September 15, 2022 | Consumer Dreams Evolving
There’s an old saying: the best days of owning a boat are the day you get it, and the day you sell it. The sentiment is especially true when people borrow to buy recreational items. While usage of the lifestyle item is periodic, related expenses tend to be continuous. Recreational properties and equipment saw a […]
September 14, 2022 | Lower Prices Improve Affordability and Investment Prospects
Well before the rate increases this year, many would-be investment properties had rents insufficient to cover expenses, and owners were subsidizing the negative carry in hopes that capital gains would more than repay their costs over time. This helpful calculator allows us to compare relative numbers. In February 2022, with the average Canadian national sale price of […]
September 13, 2022 | EPB Macro: The Compounding Cost of Short-Term Thinking
This video offers an excellent overview of the compounding cost of short-termism and entitlement thinking in a world of corporations and households who expect endless government support and lower taxes. The U.S. Government is facing some serious fiscal and monetary issues that don’t seem to have a positive outcome. In this video we will see […]
September 12, 2022 | World’s Hottest Housing Markets Face Painful Reset
The rapid cooldown in real estate threatens to worsen a global economic downturn and is emerging as a key variable for central bankers who want to tamp down inflation. Here is a direct video link. Also, see The World’s Hottest Housing Markets Face a Painful Reset In Australia and Canada — two of the world’s bubbliest markets […]
September 10, 2022 | Synchronous Global Housing Downturn
This segment offers a good overview of the global housing downturn. Rather than thinking of it as a housing “crash” though, realists can see it as an inevitable mean reversion cycle following a massive speculative bubble. Home Prices across America are DROPPING FAST, according to New Data from Redfin. Metros like Austin, Dallas, San Jose, […]
September 9, 2022 | Mortgage Stress is International Saga
Recent Canadian mortgage data compiled by the Bank of Montreal gives a glimpse at the rate of change afoot for many Canadian property owners: Some 20% of all Canadian mortgages outstanding ($260 billion) are variable rate loans taken out near the interest lows at 1.5% into February 2022. With rates on offer now closer to 5%, many […]
September 8, 2022 | Desjardins: Canada the Most Debt Sensitive Economy in the World
Canada comes into this global downturn with a world-leading real estate bubble (property values accounting for some two-thirds of household net worth) and record-private debt levels at a whopping $7 trillion (households and businesses) in an economy tracking about $2.6 trillion in GDP. A bursting debt bubble in a poorly diversified economy largely dependent on […]
September 7, 2022 | Debunking the Volcker Myth
The USD Index (DXY shown below since 1980) above 110 this morning is a 20-year high not seen since April 2002. The Euro (58% of the dollar index) is below par and at the lowest since July 2002, while the Japanese Yen (14%) is at the lowest since 1998, and the British Pound (12%) is […]
September 6, 2022 | Quantitative Tightening is Supposed to Step up 5.5x This Month
Happy September!! Starting now, the US Fed is to run off its balance sheet (reduce liquidity in the banking system via ‘Quantitative Tapering’) by $95 billion a month–double the amount they were supposed to have been withdrawing (QT) since the start of June. In reality, though, rather than shrink its holdings by $45 billion a […]