ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 1, 2022 | Reality: Tightening Done Just Starting To Bite
Financial markets rocketed higher yesterday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank might scale back the pace of its interest rate hikes as early as December. Bullish hopes fixated on the prospect of a 50 bsp hike on December 14 rather than a fifth consecutive 75 bsp. This is the surreality of the most […]
November 30, 2022 | Instability Breeds Opportunity in 2023
A lucid macro overview in this discussion. Worth a mull. Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Here is a direct video link. Portfolio manager Michael Green returns for Part 2 of our interview with him to explain why he does not expect a “soft landing” for the economy and predicts stocks […]
November 29, 2022 | Cyclical Foresight and Patience Pay
After 12 years of ultra-low interest rates, generous government support, and unprecedented liquidity injections from central banks, the global real estate market is in the midst of a much-deserved contraction cycle. As the Financial Times put it this month, The Global Housing Market is Heading for a brutal downturn, and bubble prices and household debt make […]
November 26, 2022 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest with Elmer Kim and Hillary Johnstone on the CBC Weekend Business Panel. You can watch an audio clip of the segment here.
November 25, 2022 | Pension Deficits Growing and Widely Understated
I have been writing for years about the train wreck unfolding in pension funds and individual retirement accounts that have migrated towards riskier holdings, leverage, “alternative,” and private equity allocations over the last 12 years of ultra-loose financial conditions. Needless to say, the cost of all this is not yet “marked to market.” The segment […]
November 24, 2022 | Further Downside For Risk Markets
On today’s edition of “Boiler Room,” Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Eric Basmajian for a discussion on the rising risks of recession into 2023. With a focus on the cyclical & secular forces driving the global economy, Eric shares his framework for assessing the risks of recession in Q1 of 2023. Using both real-time and […]
November 23, 2022 | Paid Promoters Hired To Lure The Unsuspecting
I, and others, have written for years about the charlatan that is Kevin O’Leary. You can see some of my past articles here and here. The latest FTX scam is just another installment. The story of Sam Bankman Fried & FTX is far from over and it has become wilder and wilder the more I dig. But I […]
November 22, 2022 | Capital Goes Poof
Last November, the global market value of crypto assets amounted to $3.2 trillion (FT Wilshire Digital Asset Index). Today, it is something less than $ 861 billion. In other words, the 73% loss in the crypto and NFT (non-fungible token) space in one-year is, so far, nearing $3 trillion and about 38% of the $8 […]
November 21, 2022 | EPB Macro: The Economic Data Just Got Worse
Last week, the entire US yield curve inverted (a diffusion index of all spreads is shown below via ISABELNET.com since 1981), with the one-month Treasury yield rising above the 30-year Treasury yield. The spread on two and 10-year Treasury bonds widened to -71bp–the most negative since before the double dip recession of the early 1980s (shown below […]
November 17, 2022 | Empty Office Space Weighs on Rents, Investors and Lenders
Private equity firms and funds have doubled down on the realty space during the low-rate boondoggle of the last decade. As usual, this led to a massive surge in supply and leverage as most forgot (or never realized?) that real estate is a cycle. Now pounds of flesh are due. In 2021, the tech sector […]
November 16, 2022 | KTX is Part of Financial Scam Ethos
After 26 years with a front-row seat in the revolving door, wild-west finance sector, I am not surprised at the unfolding crypto-doom; neither am I confident that better public protection policies will follow, nor the disgorging of ill-gotten gains from those who promoted and perpetrated the carnage. I have also long noted that people can […]
November 15, 2022 | Ponzi central
Humans seem to be endlessly vulnerable to the lure of easy money. Harder to accept, however, are those educated and trained to be professional money managers who still throw cash at charlatans and ideas with non-sensical valuations. When elders fail to lead, chaos grows. The segment below highlights the blatantly obvious mania that has piled […]
November 9, 2022 | Cryptodoom and AirBnBust
The policy-induced everything bubble is imploding globally, as it must. Overnight, we see contagion from highly levered Ponzi schemes in the crypto space as liquidity evaporates and panic justifiably spreads. Many naked emperors will be exposed here. Grandaddy Bitcoin (shown below) has tumbled to the lowest price since November 2020. See. Crypto markets tumble to a 2-year low […]
November 8, 2022 | Liquidity Contraction Remains Dominant Trend
The midterm election is historically a negative for the president’s party, and this year is expected to be no different. Exit polls suggest that Republicans are poised to sweep the House and the Senate in today’s mid-term. Bulls insist that this outcome would be a positive for equity markets regardless of the macro backdrop. Thinking […]
November 7, 2022 | Slower Growth for China is Paradigm Shift for World Economy
Unverified online posts about the potential reopening of China continue to inspire periodic rebounds in commodity and stock prices. After nearly two years of disappointment and $6 trillion of losses, last week, Chinese stocks soared on frenzied speculation that a bottom has finally arrived. Then, on the weekend, bullish dreams were dampened once more as Chinese Health officials […]
November 5, 2022 | Danielle on CBC’s weekend business panel
Danielle was a guest with Rubina Ahmed-Haq and host John Northcott on the CBC Weekend Business Panel today. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
November 3, 2022 | What Went Up Must Come Down
Yesterday, Fed chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to combating inflation (lagging indicator) at the expense of economic growth, employment and asset prices (leading indicator). Stocks didn’t like the message. In an abrupt reversal, every market sector tumbled into the close, with 474 of S&P 500 members ending in the red. There’s a point of […]
November 2, 2022 | Why the 2022 Housing Shortage is Over
Eric’s presentation illuminates the components of housing supply and how it impacts prices. The Housing Shortage has been one of the most popular stories in real estate and the economy over the last year. You see headlines about the lack of inventory driving up home prices everywhere you look. Many said home prices would not […]
November 1, 2022 | And So The Cycle Goes
Canadian monthly home sales in September were -32% year-over-year and 12% below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for September (chart below since 2007 courtesy of Martin Pelletier). October sales appear to have been worse. Many who bought properties during the 2020-2022 frenzy are now underwater in terms of resale value. Others refinanced existing properties to extract equity […]
October 31, 2022 | Housing Led Recession Just Getting Started
In the video, we will analyze economic data that could predict the coming housing crash. We will look at monetary liquidity, mortgage rates, home price-to-income ratios, builder sentiment, and more to determine a probable path forward for the U.S. housing market. The headwind facing further central bank hiking is that the global credit impulse (movement […]
October 26, 2022 | Bank of Canada Blinks, Stocks Should Next
Too loose for too long, central banks have responded to lagging inflationary pressures in 2022 with the sharpest six-month tightening cycle on record. The Bank of Canada (BOC) was in the batter’s box this morning and after raising its policy rate to 3% last month from .25 in January, had telegraphed another +.75bps for today. […]
October 25, 2022 | Biblical Mean Reversion in Motion
Subprime loan delinquency rates are higher than the 2008 recession levels today, with unemployment still near all-time lows and the layoff cycle just beginning… Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data […]
October 22, 2022 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest with Elmer Kim and host John Northcott on the CBC Weekend Business Panel today. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
October 21, 2022 | EPB Macro: Four Stages of the Economic Slowdown, Update
On today’s episode of “On the Margin”, Eric Basmajian, Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his “Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown” episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022. Here is a direct video link.
October 19, 2022 | Yields Lead Housing, Unemployment and Stocks
The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), designed to gauge market conditions, fell to 38 in October from 46 in September, now 50% lower than it was six months ago (below 50 is considered negative), and the largest year over year decline in history. Builders cite higher interest rates […]